Issue 313: All In?

So I’m not sure if ‘this time is different’ after all, but we are nearing the point where the rubber hits the road in Australia committing to the F-35, where we stump up real money to buy real aeroplanes.

Up for consideration is the purchase of up to 58 F-35As, which, on top of the already-approved 14 jets, would give the RAAF a fleet of 72, allowing effectively a one-for-one replacement for the classic Hornet.

That decision comes as the F-35 continues to mature. More aircraft are rolling off the production line, and more flight test check points are being completed, to the point where risk levels are falling and confidence levels are rising.

But the F-35 program is a highly complex beast, and challenges remain – as highlighted by the latest annual report by the Pentagon’s Director of Operational Test & Evaluation.

And Australia’s politicians are famously risk-averse, no matter the side of the political spectrum they come from.

But that risk aversion has arguably led to some astute decisions – witness Brendan Nelson’s 2007 decision to push through the Super Hornet acquisition to allow the retirement of the F-111 because the F-35 wouldn’t be ready in time. And Stephen Smith’s 2012 decision to delay most of the first batch of jets to well after USAF IOC, buying time and cutting risk.

Both of these decisions were not the RAAF’s preferred option at the time, which was, and is, ‘all in’ behind preserving a fighter force of 100 F-35s.

So now it is the turn of David Johnston to leave his mark on the RAAF F-35 acquisition saga. Given the classic Hornet is ageing and can’t keep flying indefinitely, it seems we will be signing up to more jets this year.

But how many? In this age of budget constraint, can the Australian defence budget absorb the acquisition of 72 F-35s over the next five years? Can we afford not to, without a big drop in air combat capability?

But the F-35 program is a highly complex beast, and challenges remain.

Thanks for your time

‘Thanks for you time’. It’s an overused pleasantry. I probably over-use it myself. But if you completed our recent readership survey, sincerely, ‘thank you for your time’.

If your email inbox is anything like mine, everyday you’re assailed and cajoled with requests to take part in surveys. And if you’re like me, you almost always delete them. It’s good business sense that they ask, but really, who has 15 minutes to tell Qantas your experiences of the last time you flew with them? So if you did resist the urge to ignore our requests to complete the Australian Aviation reader survey, and you were one of the 1,011 readers who took the 10 or 15 minutes or so to complete our pretty detailed online form, thank you. Thank you for being so engaged in Australian Aviation as customers and readers that you would give your time to share your views.

The best way I can repay your investment in time in us is for myself and the rest of the team to invest as much time as necessary in analysing the survey’s results and your feedback, and using that to guide us in continuing to improve what we do. There is some great data, and great detail, for us to distill, some great ideas to look into, and some good robust criticism for us to consider.

And thank you Julian

And on the subject of time being precious, can I also publicly thank Julian Green for his time as editor of this magazine.

Some of you may have read by now that Julian was recently diagnosed with terminal cancer. That news, more than anything else, puts into perspective just how precious our time really is.

With that diagnosis Julian has resigned from his full-time role at the magazine and is currently living in Europe to be closer to his children, and where he is undergoing palliative treatment.

Julian has a genuine, life-long enthusiasm for aviation and extensive corporate knowledge and experience. He has been something of a star recruit for Australian Aviation, and rapidly became central to the magazine’s on-going success.

Even though I was his ‘boss’, Julian has been, and remains, a great mentor to me, and with his corporate experience and track record, I have often joked that he should have been running Australian Aviation, not me! Appropriately enough, for example, it was Julian who pushed that we undertake a readership survey, which will be a key tool in improving and evolving Australian Aviation.

As circumstances permit Julian will continue contributing to the magazine, whether through writing or proofreading or offering his wisdom and experience. Thanks J.