A380neo

The A380’s four engines are currently supplied by either Rolls-Royce or rival Engine Alliance, owned by General Electric and Pratt & Whitney. Rolls-Royce won’t comment officially but sources at the firm’s headquarters in Derby suggest it “may be willing” to upgrade its Trent engine if Airbus wanted to go ahead with a neo version. Engine Alliance isn’t saying anything but it is understood it would want to see a robust business case before becoming involved, which is hardly surprising considering investment in development of a new engine could be as high as $1 billion.

One of the issues for the A380 is that unless major efficiency improvements are achieved within a reasonably short period of time its economics will become unattractive when compared to newer aircraft already in service or on the horizon. While A350s and the new versions of Boeing’s 777 are a few years from entering service they will bring dramatic gains in fuel efficiency. Although they are smaller than the A380 there is mounting evidence that what most airlines want are medium-sized twinjets that can match the A380 in distance terms, are more economic and can be used on a far wider range of point-to-point routes rather than being restricted to a fewer number of major high density hub-to-hub routes.

In a just-released study on the potential for an A380neo, aviation intelligence firm Leham Company says the A380 has been hailed as a highly efficient airliner… assuming the giant double-decker can be filled. It says the launch of the 777X has brought focus on the state of the A380 come the latter part of this decade when the 777-9X enters flight testing in advance of its planned 2020 entry into service (EIS).

A highly efficient airliner… assuming it can be filled.

The A380 is considered by some the most efficient way of flying passengers between two long-haul points if there is enough demand,” says Leham. “Leham looked at a passenger service between San Francisco and Hong Kong, one of the longest routes operated at 7,200nm, comparing the A380 with the 777-300ER, the 747-8 and the newly-launched 777X. “All aircraft are in the same fuel cost range, with the A380 having five per cent worse fuel costs per seat than the 777‑300ER but three per cent better than the 747-8… the 777-9X has a 13 per cent better fuel consumption per seat then today’s A380. ” It says an enhanced A380 would have to be available before or around 2020 and there are principally three ways Airbus can prepare the aircraft for the next decade: >> Rely on incremental improvements to engines and aerodynamics and make the cabin denser; >> update to engines available before 2020, improve aerodynamics and make the cabin denser; or >> update to engines available after 2020, improve aerodynamics and have more freedom with cabin density.

The study says aerodynamic improvement to reduce induced drag will be a primary goal for any A380 update and would have to take the form of wingtip treatments to increase the effective span. As the wing is already at maximum possible span and was not designed for folding wingtips, the remaining option is large winglets that spread in the vertical domain. These can take the form of single blade (Sharklets) or multi-blade (scimitar or perhaps “Sharkfins” in Airbus parlance) devices that alleviate induced drag. “We have assumed winglets of 4m size in our analysis, which enhance the efficiency by 3. 5 per cent over the present wing fences on long-haul flights. ” To get more revenue generating passengers on board, Airbus is also studying 11 abreast seating on certain parts of the A380 main deck. This will increase economy class capacity by about 30-40 seats without compromising the 18in seat width standard, according to the company.

But the core of any update is, of course, new engines. Leham says the first alternative is incremental improvement of the existing Trent 900 and Engine Alliance 7200. The 900 has historically trailed the EA7200 by about one per cent in specific fuel consumption. The present Trent 900EP is said to close that gap and Rolls-Royce has another improvement package in the works which will add another 0. 8 per cent, the Trent 900EP2. The size of these improvements are typical, about one per cent every three years; thus a total of two per cent improvement could be expected from now to 2020.

A second alternative is to take an existing engine from a later generation. Suitable engines in thrust and weight would be 787 engines, the GE GEnx-1 and Rolls-Royce Trent 1000. These deliver an improvement of four-five per cent over the present A380 engines in the variants that are being developed for the 787-10. With these engines being certified in 2015, theoretically an A380neo could see an EIS in 2016, sooner than a new engine could be engineered onto the A380. A more likely A380neo target EIS would be 2018, the wish date of Emirates for an upgrade, when it starts to take delivery of the new batch of 50. The 787 engines are some 250kg lighter than the lightest A380 engine (Trent 1000) and as they have less fan diameter their nacelles will be slightly smaller and lighter.

A third alternative would be a totally new development based on, for example, the RR RB3039

There is no projected aircraft that can reach the per seat economics of a well loaded A380neo. . .

or a P&W GTF. “Such engines offer an additional six-seven per cent efficiency improvement over a 787 engine derivative. Their drawback would be higher weight and drag due to their larger fans and their 60:1 pressure ratios. Another drawback is that they will not be available until after 2021. Additionally there is the question whether there is a business case for an entirely new engine serving only the A380, a niche aircraft for which the 20-year market demand before or after a neo is a matter of diverse opinions,” comments Leham.

The study believes Airbus can almost achieve Emirates’ wish for a 10 per cent improvement in efficiency per seat until 2018 with a combination of 11 abreast economy cabin on the main deck, improved aerodynamics and incrementally improved engines. “This variant would beat the 777-300ER in per seat efficiency as long as a 300ER runs at nine abreast. If we change this to 10 abreast, the 300ER passes the A380. . . with an additional upgrade to 787 engines we gain another five per cent in trip fuel burn and therefore also seat fuel burn as all improved variants share the denser cabin. This variant is fractionally more efficient than a 777‑9X and would be attractive for routes where one can fill an A380, also after 2020. There is no projected aircraft that can reach the per seat economics of a well loaded A380neo and this is what Emirates route planners have found”.

The best return on investment for the engine makers, according to Leham, is a common engine on the A330neo and the A380neo, and the timeline desired by Airbus for the A330neo all but dictates a choice of the GEnx or Trent 1000 TEN, with the resulting application to the A380neo. Sharing with an A330neo is ideal as the A330 and A380 have the same thrust requirements.

“Our data, and analyses by customers who have evaluated the 777‑9 vs the A380 (and 747-8), indicate a 10-abreast 777-9X has better seat mile costs then the much larger, current A380 and the 747-8. Thus, if Airbus is going to maintain an economic advantage with its four-engined airplane vs the twin-engine 777-9, an A380neo is a must. It is doubtful an A330neo can wait until 2021, however, due to market pressure – EIS is being discussed for 2018.

For Airbus, it is a tough call. The huge sales success of its single-aisle A320neo and the potential of a similar development of its popular A330 must make the thought of an A380neo attractive. On the other hand, serious question marks remain over the size of the long-term market for a superjumbo. Even with improved economics and efficiencies getting a return on the huge investment required will be an immense challenge. There is no doubt Airbus can produce an A380neo. The real question is: would it be worth it?