A380neo

Is Airbus pondering a re-engined A380?

By any stretch of the imagination it has hardly been a failure. Yet orders for the Airbus A380 remain far below projections. After little more than six years of commercial flying, Airbus faces some tough decisions on its future as airlines increasingly turn their attention towards the new breed of twinjets. Is an A380neo (New Engine Option)– ie, a re-engine – on the cards? The grapevine suggests such a move is certainly being considered. But is it feasible both in technological and economic terms? After the huge sales success of its planned single-aisle A320neo, the word is that Airbus will almost certainly go ahead with a re-engine of its popular mid-size A330. Now, the grapevine is awash with reportsabout the possibility of an A380neo in an effort to drag the big jet out of the orders doldrums. It could be a high-risk move, according to industry insiders who suggest the long-term market for such a big airliner is dwindling as the changing landscape sees customers scramble to buy new twinjets such as Boeing’s 787 and 777X and Airbus’s own A350. Speculation about a potential re-launch of the A380 has intensified in recent months with Tim Clark, president and chief operating officer of Dubai-based Emirates Airline, publicly urging Airbus to improve efficiency of the aircraft with engine technology found in newer generation aircraft. “It is time that the A380 gets an injection of the new technology which is now becoming available for the A320/737 in the form of GTF/LEAP and the GE9X (engines) for the 777X,” said Clark. His observation can hardly be dismissed by Airbus planners. If it hadn’t been for an Emirates order for 50 A380s – worth $20 billion at list prices – announced at the Dubai Airshow late last year the Toulouse manufacturer might have gone through 2013 without a single firm A380 sale. Lessor Doric (now Amedeo) did announce a 20 unit order last June, but that was not firmed up until February’s Singapore Airshow. Emirates had 44 A380s in service at the end of December, with another 96 on order. That’s nearly half of the order book which currently amounts to 304, far short of the 750 Airbus said it was aiming for when the aircraft was launched 13 years ago. After the initial splurge by the likes of Emirates, Singapore Airlines, Qantas, Lufthansa and Air France, since it entered service in 2007 customers have been slow to emerge and prospects aren’t looking any brighter this year. Existing customers are also pulling back. Germany’s Lufthansa cancelled a commitment to take three aircraft in September. Air France-KLM followed suit, saying it may drop two superjumbos for smaller aircraft. Virgin Atlantic has said it can’t be sure to take any of the six A380s it has on order and Japan’s Skymark Airlines says it still needs financing for the aircraft it wants. It should be noted that the other big four-engined jet on the market, Boeing’s 747-8 Intercontinental, has also been struggling to notch up sales and twice last year Boeing reduced output of the plane.

So the questions for Airbus are: Is there a big enough market for an A380neo, given the massive investment that would be involved for both both planemaker and engine manufacturers? How feasible is an A380neo, what are the technological issues and would there be enough of an economic gain? Right now, the main players are keeping their cards close to their chests. Airbus’s official line is that the company is “always looking into all kinds of avenues to keep our aircraft at the cutting edge” and all areas are continuallybeing reviewed, including the latest developments in engine technology. However, no decision has been taken and the first priority is to keep rolling out gradual improvements to the 525-seat aircraft. “There are lots of studies but they do not necessarily need to become true,” said a spokesman.