Issue 302: Numbers Game

The Growler will bring a tremendous force multiplying capability. But the decision, taken at a time of falling defence budgets and continuing questions over the development of the F-35, looks to be having, for the RAAF at least, the unintended consequence of entrenching the likelihood of a mixed fighter fleet where the Super Hornet is a key part of the RAAF order of battle beyond the 2020s, with the likely F-35 buy reduced by as much as half to just 50 jets.

That seems to be the upshot of Defence Minister Stephen Smith and Minister for Defence Materiel Jason Clare’s mid-December announcement that Australia has now sent a letter of request (LOR) to the US government for the possible purchase of 24 more F/A-18F Super Hornets.

“So we are now not just looking at Super Hornets as transition but looking at the longer-term potential of Super Hornets and Growler and Joint Strike Fighters essentially as a mixed fleet … we’re now not just looking at transition, we’re looking at the longer-term potential use of Super Hornets, Growlers, and Joint Strike Fighters,” Minister Smith explained at the time.

That seems much stronger language than his ministerial release, which points out that the LOR does not automatically mean a follow-up order will be forthcoming. “The sending of this LOR does not commit Australia to purchase more Super Hornets. It is being sent so that the Government can further consider all options in 2013 with the latest and best cost and availability information. This has been made clear to both US officials and to the Defence industry. ” The RAAF (and Lockheed Martin) will be hoping the formal explanation in the Minister’s release is a more accurate representation of his thinking rather than his verbal comments, which seem to suggest a future fleet of 48 F/A-18F/EA-18G jets ultimately complemented by a similar number of F-35s. But it is well known the RAAF’s preference is for its original plan of 100 F-35s, and that its recommendation to government was not extra Super Hornets but to proceed as planned with the AIR 6000 Phase 2A/2B buy of up to 72 F-35As from 2014 and declare an initial operating capability (IOC) in 2020.

But not only does the Growler acquisition entrench a mixed RAAF fast jet fleet, it also absorbs scarce defence funding at a time when it was looking to acquire the F-35. Compounding the issue is that the F-35, for all its promise, is still in development, and still facing the kind of technical challenges that flight testing is designed to throw up. That very legitimately raises the question of when is the right time to commit to the F-35? The Super Hornet, meanwhile, is a known, low-risk quantity – an appealing prospect to a risk-averse minister. But buying more Super Hornets now trades off transition risk in the near term for capability risk in the longer term. The RAAF will be able to easily absorb more Super Hornets and they would allow the retirement of the RAAF’s classic Hornet without a substantial investment in fatigue management in the near to medium term, and reduced classic Hornet flying hours and combat effectiveness down the track.

But balanced against that is the F-35’s greater capabilities, and, critically, its survivability, from the mid-late 2020s onwards, compared to the Super Hornet.

That very legitimately raises the question of when is the right time to commit to the F-35?