Going Greenbird: Ushering in Australia’s eVTOL industry

To date, over $10 billion has been invested into the development of such new aerial transport technologies that are more sustainable, manoeuvrable, and cost-effective than any traditional aircraft on the market today. Dozens of companies around the world are already well on their way to design, develop, build, test and certify their answer to the next-generation aerial vehicles capable of becoming an AAM solution, with the first eVTOLs expected to roll off of production lines by the end of this decade.

And while the stakes are already high, they’re only getting higher; this multi-billion industry is tipped to become worth over $1.5 trillion by 2040 – if not earlier. Despite being an extension of both the aviation and the drone industries of today, when fully matured these new technologies will ring in an entirely new industry of themselves – requiring new infrastructure, new regulatory practices, new supply chains, new customers, and a whole lot of new investment.

Enter, Greenbird.

Greenbird is an industry consortium that joins together aviation’s biggest players and brightest minds to collectively work towards the safe introduction of commercialised advanced aerial mobility (AAM) solutions.

“On the global scale, Australia is already a bit behind the many first world countries, which are already heavily invested at both an industry and a government level in the rollout of these new aviation capabilities,” says Greenbird co-director Sara Hales. “And we can see from those other countries that are advancing here that collaboration is so crucial.”

AAM platforms seek to connect suburbs, cities, and regional areas in new and better ways than ever before. According to , AAM as a concept has developed significantly in recent years, and is likely to only continue to expand in its possible commercial uses.

AAM had been previously dubbed as ‘urban air mobility’, which is perhaps where the term ‘air taxi’ also came into play. Urban air mobility referred to intra-city commuter transport via the air, connecting outer suburbs with city centres, and CBDs with airports. However, Hales says that the “advanced aviation technologies” we see in development today are the likely answer to both urban and regional movement challenges, hence the new moniker of Advanced Aerial Mobility.

“It’s really easy to talk about air taxis, because everyone can imagine a flying taxi. It’s a simple thing to wrap your head around,” Hales says. “But this technology has so many other potential applications, like government service, freight and urgent goods delivery, medical applications, emergency applications, disaster recovery applications. We are particularly about its use in the regional aviation sector, creating improved regional connectivity.”

Ahead of the 2032 Games, Hales used Southeast Queensland as a prime example of what she means by AAM. “Instead of thinking of this just air taxis in and around the city of Brisbane, we see the opportunity for regional mobility that connects the smaller communities and the major centres right throughout that region, like the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. That’s now a population of between four and five million people. So not only is it a better commercial opportunity, it’s also way more exciting in terms of what we can deliver for the people who live in those place.”

Origins of Greenbird

Greenbird was founded just this year, in February 2022. According to Hales, the purpose of the platform is to encourage greater industry collaboration to not only drive up investment into this budding sector, but also work with companies, governments, and regulators to usher in safe and scalable air taxi operations. The organisation is owned by AVISTRA, an aviation consulting firm founded by Hales and her Greenbird co-pilot Keith Tonkin.

Hales says Greenbird was ultimately born out of a need to better understand the challenge – and threat – that AAM could pose on the existing aviation sector, to inform the strategic advice offered up by AVISTRA. “Obviously, we could see that the advanced mobility space was going to have an impact on those businesses, being our core business clients, in the longterm,” Hales says. “So we decided we needed to learn everything we could about the emerging AAM sector.” From here, Hales and Tonkin began forming relationships with those working across the AAM development space, to learn specifically about both the technical and commercial sides of this new industry.

“The more that we learnt and understood this sector, and how quickly it’s developing and evolving, it actually became quite clear to us that Australia needs almost like an orchestrator to bring together various parts of the industry to help chart a clear path towards not just the implementation but the commercialisation of these technologies in Australia,” Hales says. “CASA and Airservices have already done an enormous amount of work starting to plan for and build the regulatory framework to support AAM. However, there are a lot of other problems to still be solved before we can see a full-scale launch of commercial AAM technologies here and it didn’t feel like, to us, that any entity was dedicated to solving those.”

Hales said that Greenbird is really a “natural extension” of the work that she and Tonkin together already do. “Given our background and understanding of aviation economics, and of the operational and regulatory context in which aviation operates, we felt we had a lot to offer in this space. It also fits well with our ethos for our business, as we are really passionate about the role aviation plays in both connecting and supporting the economic and social wellbeing for communities all around Australia,” she says.

Hales and Tonkin thus set off on what will be a long journey towards seeing a full-scale, mature, commercialised ecosystem of autonomous, hydrogen or electric-powered, manoeuvrable passenger transport aircraft. To achieve this, Greenbird will not only work to deeply understand, define and support the development of these vehicles, but also its required infrastructure, its regulation, its social acceptance by the communities it will service, as well as drum up investment in Australia’s local AAM sector.

How does it plan to do this? Through almost unprecedented collaboration between various stakeholders in Australia’s future AAM sector, including governments, manufacturers, airports, renewable energy providers, future operators of these technologies, and more.

To date, Greenbird has welcomed over a dozen local and international partners into the Greenbird platform, to work together towards a total introduction and commercialisation of AAM technologies to Australia. Greenbird partners include Archerfield Airport, Griffith University Australian eVTOL developer and manufacturer AMSL Aero, UK verti-port company Skyports, among other research, development and manufacturing bodies.

The 2035 roadmap

Hales says that together, these organisations are steaming ahead into their five-step roadmap to see Australia through to 2035.

Phase One: 2022 – Finalise Strategy and Implementation Plan including resourcing requirements and industry attraction initiatives.

Phase Two: 2024 – Research, planning and execution of demonstration flights in rural, remote and urban settings.

Phase Three: 2026 – Early commercialisation, limited networks in place, aircraft are crewed.

Phase Four: 2032 – Un-crewed urban operations are demonstrated in limited locations and hydrogen powered / hybrid systems are in use. Operators achieve profitability.

Phase Five: 2035 – Ecosystem maturity. Complex networks have evolved, with a sophisticated supporting ecosystem.

“It’s a five step process through to 2035,” Hales says. “But we need to be a bit careful about stating 2035 because it makes it sound that we’re not adequately thinking about the Brisbane Olympics in 2032, which we obviously are and you can see where that fits into the plan.

“But for us, we’re focused not just on releasing these technologies as a novelty during the Olympics, or to produce a system that only operates in one region in Australia. While the Olympics is a terrific investment anchor and opportunity to garner attention to Australia’s AAM capabilities, really need to focus on developing a sustainable long-term industry, and a functional future-proof ecosystm, and that’s where Greenbird’s priorities are, and that’s what our collaboration is working towards.

“So, by 2035, we’d like to see this sustainable, rich, diverse ecosystem in place. By 2032, we believe it’d be great to be showing some sort of technological leadership at the Olympics, such as autonomous operations for example.” Hales said if we’re going to manage to see pilotless eVTOL operations by 2032, the industry needs to be “aiming towards” early commercialisation by 2026. “And in order to get early commercialisation by 2026, we really need to see some demonstration-type flying by 2024 to start identifying and ironing out any regulatory barriers that exist about the effort. And all of that needs to be underpinned by a cohesive vision and a strategic plan for the industry, which is the work that Greenbird is seeking to do alongside its partners at the moment.”

The bottom line: ‘better than a helicopter’

“As the economy of scale changes the economics, and as community acceptance and comfort with the safety and the mode of travel increases, I think we’re going to see that this is quite a common mode of transport for people to use.”

According to Hales, the business case for eVTOL aircraft, be that piloted or pilotless, might actually surprise you. “The industry has run a number of forecast business cases for this technology, and they all sort of suggest that these new-age mobility options can be provided at a fairly low cost.” Hales suggested that a piloted eVTOL trip could cost about the same as an Uber Black travelling a 30km distance, and when pilotless operations are introduced, an eVTOL flight would cost the same as a regular Uber. “So it’s not ridiculously expensive, even with a pilot in the vehicle,” she says.

Hales said this is possible due to a number of reasons, but the key being how cheap and efficient these new-age vehicles will be to run, compared to traditional aviation technologies. “It’s definitely far cheaper than a helicopter to operate one of these aircraft,” she explains, suggesting owning and operating an eVTOL could cost about one fifth that of a traditional rotorcraft. “They’re a lot quieter and more highly mobile inside an urban environment, too. They’re also safer in many aspects, because of the design of the aircraft, they have a higher number of potential operational redundancies before the aircraft is at risk, compared to smaller helicopters.”

For consumers, the palatable cost and ease of booking one of these vehicles in the ecosystem will likely make eVTOLs a welcome new means of public transportation, however the transition to pilotless operations could cause concern in the public sphere. “Safety perceptions around autonomy will be a challenge for the industry, but I think if that is managed really proactively, it doesn’t need to be a dealbreaker. Today, people are hesitant to get into autonomous cars, because fundamentally, they don’t really trust computers. Technically though, all the people in aviation know that autonomous flight has been going on for quite a long time – Most of the airliners today fly largely autonomously already.

“So autonomous flight is not a new thing, and when you look at it, it’s probably actually safer than crewed flight. But people have this natural distrust, which will need to be challenged. We have the unspoken human contract that exists between ourselves and the pilot sitting at the front of an aircraft. And I think for that reason, some of the proponents of autonomous flights are suggesting things like, perhaps there’s a person in the vehicle, like some sort of chaperone for example in there, even if they’re not actually a pilot themselves.”

As a caveat to this, though, Hales notes that a lot of this modelling is still “highly theoretical”, and is yet to be tested in full anywhere in the world. She says that modelling depends on a widespread adoption and acceptance of this technology by greater society. “We’re essentially inventing a whole industry from nothing, it’s not very well understood. We can crunch the numbers but if we have no passengers, or even more crucially, no supply chains or pipelines that are essential to create and operate this system, then we have nothing.”

Hurdles ahead

Building an entire industry from nothing is no light task, hence the necessity of an industry collective like Greenbird. There are so many hurdles still to define, understand, and overcome between now and the full-scale implementation of the AAM ecosystem. “There’s a range of barriers still ahead for us, which again is why Greenbird is so important,” Hales explains. “We’d start with the the creation of the necessary supporting regulatory framework. That’s probably one of the first barriers, but even today, CASA and Airservices are already doing a lot of work on that and are very well engaged with industry in Australia which is good.” Hales says that CASA has already made its message clear to AAM innovators collaborators: “that they will work with industry to put together a regulatory response around a specific use on a case-by-case scenario or an as-needed basis”. Hales says Greenbird sees this tactic as “a really pragmatic and positive position for CASA to take”. “Because to insist on the full development of the entire regulatory framework before ever allowing anyone to do anything, would be a real roadblock for this industry,” she adds.

Hales says there are so many aspects to this issue that “sometimes we don’t even know what we don’t know yet”. However, she laid out a few key ones that come to front of mind. “First and foremost is infrastructure. Vertiports for example, how do we handle planning around vertiport operations – who funds it, who owns it, and who operates it? How does someone get planning approval for vertiport and who is responsible for regulating that? What’s the design standard for that infrastructure? And how do we safeguard that area its an inner-city environment, to ensure that vertiport is safe and is protected from incompatible development in the long run?”

In addition, Hales said there will be a lot of third-party infrastructure and supplies that will need to be utilised to support the industry in various ways. “So that could be the electrical distribution network that needs to be funnelled into these vertiports, to charge the eVTOLs. Whose role is it to ensure there is ample electricity available for these vehicles? How does the existing electrical distribution network cope with that and what needs to happen to make sure that it’s okay in the long run?”

The questions continued: “What about if these vehicles are going to operate like taxis, as they’re planned to? Should state governments have a role in regulating how many of them are in the sky around the city, and who is operating them? Is there any sort of constraint to be introduced around that, or is that constraint left to CASA to decide in terms of what’s safe from aviation safety point of view?”

“And then, ultimately, when we move to autonomous operations, there’ll be a lot more questions about the hardware and software required to support the safe navigation of these vehicles. Who is funding that? Is it expensive? And how does that impact the overall business case for operations both in an urban context and in a lower frequency, regional context as well?”

And yet, above all else, the biggest question remains – will communities support eVTOL networks? When in full operation, city-dwellers will likely see eVTOLs or other AAM vehicles that whizz past them at all hours of the day and night. “Is this an amenity that communities really want?,” Hales asks. “The social acceptance piece will be huge part of the success of this industry, it’s essentially the last barrier but it’s possibly the biggest one.” And yet, Greenbird has a plan of attack for this, too. “We really need to position this industry in a way that it is perceived by communities as something of benefit to the communities – because that’s exactly what it is.” She continues: “It offers the opportunity for the decarbonisation and democratization of flight which is a super exciting next step in aviation.” And so, the challenge for the industry is ensuring that these developments are recognised for the benefits they bring to their communities. “People are naturally pretty nervous of what they don’t understand, so we need as an industry to make sure we’re very reassuring around the noise elements, privacy elements, safety elements,” she says. “We need as an industry to leverage all of our skills and experience in aviation safety, to providing certainty around the fact that it’s safe to get on one of these aircraft, and they aren’t an encroachment on people’s lives”.

The best is yet to come

Hales says the technological advancement in the eVTOL will likely develop exponentially in the coming decades, which means Australia needs to be prepared not just for the aircraft we can envision today, but also what could eventually become of the Advanced Aerial Mobility sector. “There’s an enormous amount of technological evolution that we’re going to see in this sector and we’re at the beginning of what’s going to be quite an interesting and long journey,” she says. “From my point of view the aircraft themselves are starting off as these electric powered aircraft with operating ranges that currently fall between the 100-150 kilometre range, because that’s about what we can achieve with today’s electric power capabilities.

“But that limit, as a constraint, is going to change enormously in the next 10, 15, 20 years as battery technologies evolve. We’ll also likely see some aerial vehicles that move towards hydrogen propulsion systems as well. So could very well then be seeing vehicles with an operating capability of 800 to 1000 kilometres which opens up a whole range of new opportunities for these systems,” she says. “There’s this enormous change process that we’re going to move through and we’re just at the beginning of it.”