QantasLink takes on Rex in SA

Whether Qantas’s comment was really intended to keep Rex at bay elsewhere in NSW and Queensland where some high traffic ports are in Qantas hands is unknown.

This is Qantas’s second foray into Port Lincoln, previously serving it from December 2005 to June 2006 utilising smaller Dash 8s. These rotated via a weekend Melbourne/Adelaide via Kingscote (Kangaroo Island) service, on around 24 round flights weekly. But with the aircraft based in Adelaide, the morning timing pattern was unattractive for Port Lincoln passengers. It made little inroad and commencement of a high speed ferry didn’t help.

By contrast, the new Port Lincoln service uses a Q400, although the usual terminal area and ground maneuvering makes it only five minutes faster than the competing Saab 340s. The 23 round flights generate just 34.5 hours per week – about half a normal 300/400 utilisation- but the aircraft overnights at Port Lincoln six nights weekly, enabling the widely preferred early morning departure timing. Rex, surprisingly, hasn’t matched it yet.

The ferry was withdrawn in late 2009 but a new 300 passenger and 85 car capacity vessel will commence service mid 2010, adding even more capacity. Rex offer nearly 220,000 seats pa, on 60 weekly round trips ( its highest frequency route) using two Saab 340s starting one “at each end,” Qantas 170,000 pa on just “half” a Q400. Port Lincoln presently loads about 150,000 per annum, against 390,000 air seats plus soon 300,000 ferry seats. A deadly war will ensue on SA’s premier route just 133nm long.

Mount Gambier?

Mt Gambier loads have fallen by around 20 per cent since O’Connor Airlines ceased and Qantas lost its connection to the city. Business passengers favour peak hour same day return patterns in both directions, and Rex’s services following this pattern. If Qantas were to put Q400s on an evening and morning return pattern with 12 flights a week, it would throw 95,000 seats each year on the market, while smaller Q300s would add over 62,000 seats each year. With Rex presently providing around 105,000, either aircraft would see a tremendous capacity leap, resulting in cutthroat fares.

Also a Qantas Mt Gambier-Adelaide service run at parallel morning and evening times would require an additional aircraft to the Port Lincoln one, for around just 25 hours weekly, between them one aircraft’s normal hours. Those operating far lower capital cost aircraft can sustain schedules with such idle time blocks – eg Rex- and cherry pick peak hours. After allowing for maintenance and training needs very large gaps of on ground Adelaide Dash 8 time would ensue – used to take up some Olympic Dam flights in its own right or try for the mine charter outright.

Pavement considerations

All of the above forgets one deeper (literally) problem. Olympic Dam’s runway strength is unrated and has only a narrow sealed centre section. Mt Gambier’s runway 18/36 dates from the DC3 era and was sealed to F27 standard, rated the then standard PCN strength of 6/ 84PSI. The rating is qualified U -established not by technical evaluation but experience- of much lighter aircraft use. The Dash 8 300 load classification is around 11, the Q400 15 which put both significantly over the stated pavement capability.

Transport Canada, perhaps the leader in pavement strength matters, recommends that aircraft should only overload pavements by 200 per cent in emergency operations, with only around 10 per cent overload acceptable for regular operations.

Dash 8-400 can reach 19, Embraer 170s 26, and E-190s 35. Some places encouraging LCC jets might also note the relationship between pavement and aircraft load classification numbers in addition to the ICAO based CASA Part 139 runway aircraft classifications.

The extensive damage reportedly primarily by Dash 8 400s at Gladstone, then rated PCN 14/145PSI by technical evaluation, but found to be seriously degraded, indicates a reevaluation of Mt Gambier’s strength would be prudent before either Dash 8 is considered, both being far heavier than Rex’s Saab 340s.

When the Commonwealth owned most aerodromes, DCA engineers were very cautious in granting pavement concessions as the Commonwealth paid for any damage. Councils who knowingly permit significant pavement overloads will not get government repair aid now. A development plan for Mt Gambier noted the very low runway strength calling for upgrade. Unless it is implemented introduction of heavy Dash 8s might see a Gladstone like result.

Whatever the outcome elsewhere, the outcome of the new round of Rex v Qantas, as well as the new ferry at Port Lincoln should be interesting.