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A slow technology and infrastructure rollout, not a lack of feedstock, is the main factor holding back wider adoption of sustainable aviation fuel, a new study says.
The research, conducted by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has found that there is enough feedstock available to allow the airline industry to hit net zero within the next 25 years. It comes as the Australian government continues to invest in spurring a domestic SAF industry.
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According to the study, airlines will need 500 million tonnes of SAF to reach net zero by 2050, achievable through both biomass conversion and power-to-liquid, with an estimated potential of 12,000 million tonnes of feedstock by that point – though less than 35 per cent of this will be available for bioenergy and biofuels, the organisation says, due to competing uses.
Additionally, the pace of development on SAF production facilities has been slow, with the only current commercial-scale facilities reliant on a single technology, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA).
“Having conducted assessments on global feedstock availability, technology readiness, and regional suitability, the core forecast of this study estimates that global SAF production could potentially reach 400 Mt by 2050,” IATA said.
“Reaching this level is a daunting task and would represent a major scale-up in SAF capacity. However, it also reveals a significant shortfall of around 100 Mt.
“In all cases, to maximise SAF output, it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions.”
IATA director-general Willie Walsh said the report provides “unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised, then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation”.
“There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now,” he said.
“With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector.
“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.”
The Australian government earlier this month announced a $1.1 billion investment over 10 years into the development of low-carbon liquid fuels, including SAF.
The new Cleaner Fuels Program aims to stimulate investment from the private sector into on-shore production of fuels like SAF, with the first production of “drop-in” cleaner fuels that can serve as direct substitutes in current engines estimated by 2029.
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says:A very pertinent saying in our industry, “Situation awareness” which expanded could well mean that we know where we are now and where and how we are going to reach our destination and when.
Current fashionable topics, Renewables, Net Zero, cleaner fuels et al, – all may well be true and valid points but where is the Situation Awareness, the promoters of same keep giving us the melody but where are the words to the song??? – maybe not available. We have hi profile figures/businessmen waxing lyrical about Green Hydrogen and the likes, successfully receiving grants from the Govt. to produce same but then, they quietly vanish, go quiet?. We now have Mr. Walsh from IATA banging on about SAF’s even claiming we have enough feedstock from sustainable resources? Clarkson’s farm may well disagree as will our farmers here too. Folks, these topics have to be more than ideology, cut the flowery sentences and marketing jingles and give us plain facts. When we have today major energy companies beginning to back pedal on various government time constraints concerning energy availabilities and their practicality it is time for us to be worried. The big thing to remember here is the fact that the Govt. believe they have fixed the problem, after all they have allocated umpteen millions of dollars so the problem has gone away but we know differently or I hope we do.!