Debrief

This Has Opened Up Vast Gaps in Capacity, Frequency and Timing.

Virgin Blue’s Conversion to a Quasi-business Carrier Means That on Some Routes Its 737s Are Too Large to Provide the Timing and Frequency Which Business Travellers Demand. Brisbane Airport Claims 30 to 40 Per Cent of Passengers Demand Same Day Travel at Peak Times – Not a Time When Large Aircraft or Overloaded Airports Allow. Virgin Blue’s Order for Embraer E-170s and 190s Allows It to Offer More Frequency at Peak Business Times on Those Routes Contested by Qantas, Which Can Only Offer Dash 8 and 737/jetstar A320 Combinations, While Also Greatly Increase Virgin Blue’s Own Frequency and Timing Against Them.

While There is Only 10-25 Minutes Difference Between the Q400 and the E-170 and 190 on the Routes in Question, the E-170 Offers a Well Regarded 70-seat, 32in (81cm) Pitch Cabin and Also the Ability to Fly 15,000ft Above the Turboprops.

In Recent Severe Weather, Some Turboprops Have Been Forced by Their Ceiling Limits to Travel at Between 6-10,000ft on Stages Up to 300nm (555km). Fuel Burn is Reportedly Another Matter.

Where the E-170 and Q400 Go Head-to-head Promises for an Interesting Contest.

The Two Longest Q400 Runs, Canberra-brisbane and Brisbane-mackay, Are Also Likely to Be Where the E-170 Has Potentially the Greatest Time and Comfort Edge While Matching Q400 Frequency.

The E-170 and 190 Fleet Offer Virgin Blue Around 50,000 Equivalent One Hour Stages of Additional Capacity – Around Three Million Passengers or a 20 Per Cent Increase. One-third of These May Be New Business, Another Third From Virgin Blue 737s Moved to Denser Routes, While the Balance Could Come From the Opposition or Other Regional Airlines Without Jets.

Virgin Blue Could Operate the Aircraft Itself, Create a Lower Cost Base Subsidiary as May Occur With Any Toll Based All-cargo Operation, or Have Them Operated by an Existing Carrier, as Qantas Uses National Jet Systems.

Rex Might Fill That Bill, Despite the Negative Experience of the Earlier Kendell Crj ‘adventure’.

Ownership Issues Aside, Virgin Blue Could Be in for a Busy Time as It Plans to Extend Into International Wide Body, All-cargo Operations.

Surplus Bush Airports

Regional Councils Face a Significant Cost-versus-revenue Quandary Over the Need to Resurface Deteriorating F27-era Runways. A Typical 180 X 30m Runway Resurfacing to 50mm Will Require Around 2700m3 of Standard Grade Asphalt, Costing Around $360,000 at Capital City Prices. Other Restorative Work and Remoteness Costs Can Easily Double That Cost.

Ratepayers Seeking Rate Deferrals Due to the Drought, Paying Water Charges for Allocations They Can’t Access and Higher Interest Rates Are Unlikely to Support Funding Expenditure for Something That Does Not Pay Its Way, and is Directly Used by Only a Few.

Transfer of Such Airports Which Are Deemed Essential Back to the Government May Be an Appealing Option.

A Chieftain Replacemen?

The Unpressurised Czech Evektor Ev-55 Outback, Which Will Be Built in Canada, Offers True Hope for Smaller Regional Operators.

Resembling a Scaled Up Partenavia, the Evektor is Powered by Two 536shp (400kw) Pt6a-21 Engines and Offers Seating for a Pilot and Nine Passengers for Ifr Rpt Services, or a High Density Configuration for Two Pilots and 14 Passengers, Plus Combi and Cargo Layouts.

Preliminary Figures for Fuel Burn Under Hot and High Conditions Are Near Identical to What Similar Rated Engines Have Achieved in Papua New Guinea and Northern Operations. Cruise at 220tas is Planned and Its Very High Zero Fuel Weight is Little More Than the Ifr Fuel Reserves.

Range/payload Projections Indicate It Will Fill the Chieftain and Titan Replacement Gap. Local Scenarios, Such as Air-link’s Long Running Northwestern Nsw Chieftain Routes Short and Long Can All Be Handled With a Full Load. Also Possible Are the Northern Rusted on Titan Routes, Such as Cairns-coen- Lockhart River (With Weipa for an Alternate) and Port Headland-broome-derby.

Using Simple Proven Materials, Off-the-shelf Components and the World’s Most Popular Smaller Turbine Engine, Nothing Grandiose or Complex is Planned.

However, the Target Base Price of Us$1. 7m (a$2. 2m) in 2004 Prices is Several Times That of a Good Used Chieftain or Titan. The Engines Also Cost Several Times More to Overhaul, but Also Offer Double Nominal Life and Burn Cheaper Fuel.

If It Sells Well Internationally, in Time Good Low Time Used Machines Could Be Expected to Enter Australia – Likely Sourced From Countries With Accelerated Tax Depreciation, as Happens With the Caravan Today.

Rex Rationalisation

if Air-link Beech 1900ds Are Substituted for Rex Saabs on Sydney-bathurst, Bathurst Rate Payers May Well Question Why the Terminal There Was Recently Expensively Upgraded.