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The Dream That Never Was
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The fall of the Shah last February left Iran with a vast array of advanced technology weaponry for which the new Islamic Revolutionary Government evidently has little use.
It is conceivable that some of these arms may find their way into Soviet hands, enabling the Russians to copy them or to develop countermeasures that will reduce their effectiveness. Others could pass into the hands of terrorist organisations, leading to an escalation of violence anywhere from Northern Ireland to Indonesia. Even if sold second-hand to Western nations, these arms might seriously disrupt existing negotiations for new equip1;1ent (and hence manufacturing workloads) or spark off regional arms races in the way that the sale of Mirages to Peru did in the 1960s.
The situation in Iran thus poses many questions. Why did the US and other Western nations indulge in such massive sales of advanced equipment, knowing that the Shah faced widespread opposition within Iran? What secrets are at risk, if Communist elements within Iran pass samples of the more advanced equipment to the Soviet Union? What are the more saleable items in the Iranian inventory, and which countries are likely to be in the market for them? Finally, what are the principal lessons of the Iran affair for future Western dealings in arms with the governments of the less firmly-based nations? As a basis for this discussion, the first step must be a review of the equipment inventories of the three armed services of Iran, and of the further purchases that were planned before the Khomeini Government put an end to the arms build-up.
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