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Boeing has predicted demand for around 42,600 commercial jets over the next 20 years, with half of these to replace older jets in favour of more fuel-efficient models.
The planemaker’s annual Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), released ahead of the 2023 Paris Airshow, has forecast US$8 trillion in demand for new commercial jets by 2042. The Asia-Pacific market is expected to account for around 40 per cent of this demand, with China alone representing half of that amount.
An overwhelming 75 per cent of new jet demand over the 20-year period – or around 32,400 planes – will be for single-aisle airliners, with wide-body jets making up around 20 per cent of demand, or around 7,400 aircraft. The remaining five per cent will be split between freighters and regional jets, with Boeing expecting cargo carriers to order just over 900 new wide-bodies and regional carriers to order just over 1,800 new planes.
Low-cost carriers are also expected to surge, with the forecast predicting they will operate more than 40 per cent of the single-aisle market in 2042, up from 10 per cent in 2003.
“The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalising on resurgent demand,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing’s senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.
The 2023 CMO comes three years after the onset of COVID-19 and the grounding of most of the global aviation fleet. Some of its other key findings include passenger traffic continuing to outpace global economic growth of 2.6 per cent; the global fleet nearly doubling to 48,600 jets, expanding 3.5 per cent per year; and airlines replacing about half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.
“Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects further evolution of passenger traffic tied to global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers, and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery,” said McMullen.
Boeing also forecasts US$3.8 trillion value in commercial services over the 20-year outlook, including training, digital solutions, supply chain and maintenance.
Australian airlines have been investing heavily in their fleets over the past few years, including Qantas’s massive Project Winton fleet renewal program and Virgin Australia’s order for more than 30 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.
