Grey army

Tokyo is hardly alone. Countries across the region have made similar changes to the rules though in most cases the age is now around the 65 mark.

Except for New Zealand where there is actually no official retirement age and pilots can continue in the cockpit, even beyond 70, as long as they pass frequent medical checks. As the region’s airlines continue their phenomenal expansion – some 28 new aircraft are rolling off plane-maker assembly lines every week and half of them are bound for Asia Pacific – there is growing concern that what has been a nagging problem for years is set to get worse.

Right now, the numbers aren’t adding up. Boeing forecasts the region needs 216,000 pilots in the next two decades, 41 per cent of global demand. This compares with 94,000 (18 per cent) for Europe and 88,000 for (17 per cent) for North America. Some analysts say that’s an underestimate and point to the high demand coming from major growth markets like China, India and Indonesia. Current orders for new aircraft already placed by local carriers stand at 1,600, more than the region’s existing fleet. That number will get bigger, much of it from the budget sector. The requirement for each of these new aircraft is 10 to 12 pilots.

They will also need engineers and other staff to maintain and operate it.

An efficient airline will operate with about 35 to 40 staff per aircraft, even more for the large 747 or A380-size aircraft, which can require more than 100 personnel per aircraft to allow round-the-clock operations.

The stampede by airlines to fill cockpits also raises safety concerns and attracting Western crew is getting harder. As Skaiste Knyzaite, chief executive of European crew resource firm AviationCV. com puts it: “The extraordinary expansion of aviation in the Asia Pacific region has not, sadly, been accompanied by the same attention to safety standards and clear solutions to the human resources (HR) crisis. While some carriers were able to somewhat fill the gap by attracting foreign talent with competitive salaries in the past, nowadays other regions (eg the Middle East) are way more appealing to expat aircrew. ” However, Asia can be attractive to young pilots. For example, at Vietnam’s budget VietJet Air, expatriate Airbus A320 first officers can transition to captains in as little as two years. In the US that process can sometimes take more than 15 years.

Many analysts fear that existing training facilities aren’t sufficient.

Many analysts fear that existing training facilities aren’t sufficient and even efforts to attract experienced expatriate crew to Asia won’t fill the demand. Flight training facilities are expanding in the region. For instance in April it was announced APEX Flight Academy was getting together with Australia’s Ansett Aviation Training (AAT) to establish a world-class pilot training center in Taiwan, the inauguration of which is scheduled for the end of this year.

“Taiwan has a long-term vision to train a pilot workforce from its citizens, lessening the reliance on foreign nationals. It’s a key component of securing the aviation future of Taiwan and establishing Taiwan as a centre of pilot training excellence in Asia,” said David Garside, AAT’s chief executive.

Indonesian LCC Lion Air, which needs up to 150 new pilots every year, has set up its own training school, the Angkasa Aviation Academy. Prior to 2010 Vietnamese pilots had to go overseas for training but Vietnam Airlines – 300 of its 900 pilots are foreign – now has its own facility, Viet Flight Training, to start churning out local crew. There are similar stories across Asia but industry insiders are still deeply concerned this will not be enough to solve the problem.

In Tokyo, Japan’s transport ministry says it is aiming to ease a shortage while still ensuring safety. Japan has 5,900 airline pilots, including 500 aged 60 or over, but surging demand from passengers, especially in the budget sector, has created the shortage, which last year forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights. While pilots can now fly until their 68th birthday, there are riders. Flying time for the “oldies” will be limited to 80 per cent of the normal maximum, meaning 80 hours per month or 216 hours over three months. And the co-pilot of a 65-plus captain has to be 59 or younger. Those who opt to continue beyond their 65th birthday will also have to undergo epilepsy tests – which is, at least, comforting.