Badgerys Or Bust?

Here is the long, three-decade saga of Sydney’s second airport soap opera.

1964

The then Department of Civil Aviation and the NSW Government discuss the establishment of a second major airport in Sydney and recommend it be built at Towra Point in Botany Bay by 1980, when they expect Kingsford Smith to reach its maximum capacity.

1969

Federal government sets up a committee to consider 11 sites for the second airport. They are: Wyong (North Head and Warnervale), Somersby, Richmond, Badgery’s Creek, Fleurs, Marsden Park, Longpoint, Lucas Heights, Duffy’s Forest and Wattamolla.

1971

Government narrows down the sites to Richmond, Somersby, Duffy’s Forest and Wattamolla.

1973

Then ALP Minister of Transport Charlie Jones announces a decision to site the second Sydney airport at Galston, northwest of Sydney.

After protests from local residents it also orders a study into an airport in the Canberra-Goulburn area. By 1974, Galston is ruled out. A year later the Goulburn-Canberra option is also ruled out.

1976

A NSW government report shows use of KSA will not increase as much as forecast and could cope with air traffic until the turn of the century. A combined Commonwealth-State government inquiry is set up to examine whether to build a second runway at KSA or the second airport. The Major Airport Needs of Sydney (MANS) group looks at five sites: Holsworthy, Rossmore- Bringelly, Rouse Hill, Marsden Park and Nelson.

1978

Holsworthy is eliminated because of an unknown number of unexploded military projectiles which litter the site.

1979

The MANS group recommends a third runway at KSA and a second airport at Badgery’s Creek… if needed.

1982

Liberal Government announced third runway construction will begin at KSA in 1984 to be completed by 1992.

1983

The new Labor government of Bob Hawke announced another joint Commonwealth-State program to identify a site for the second Sydney airport.

1984

Sites for the second airport are narrowed down to Wilton and Badgery’s Creek.

Others considered were Bringelly, Darkes Forest, Gundary Plains near Goulburn, Holsworthy, Londonderry, Scheyville, Somersby, and Warnervale.

1986

After deferring the decision numerous times, Badgery’s Creek is announced as the second airport site by Minister for Aviation Peter Morris.

1989

Bob Hawke announces the decision to develop a third runway at KSA and to begin the development of a second airport at Badgery’s Creek.

1990

Work on road infrastructure at Badgery’s Creek commences. The federal government announces it has allocated $20 million to improve road access to the site.

1991

A study by Coopers and Lybrand found that the third runway at KSA would obviate the need for a second airport until 2014. However, Cabinet commits $54 million towards the immediate development of Badgery’s Creek. An 1,800 metre runway is to be constructed to allow the airport to take small jet aircraft by 1994.

1994

Labor aviation minister Laurie Brereton announces Badgery’s Creek development will be accelerated with the building of a 2,900m runway capable of handling major aircraft, rather than the 1,800m general aviation runway. The third runway at Mascot opens in the same year. A Parliamentary committee also finds that the second airport is necessary in time for the Olympics in 2000.

1995

Minister Brereton says a budget shortfall means there is no money for commencement of work at Badgery’s Creek and it will not be ready for the Sydney Olympics.

1996

A new environmental impact study (EIS) on the Badgery’s Creek site begins in order to update the previous EIS, which was done in 1985.

There is a change of government, with John Howard replacing Paul Keating. Liberals decide the EIS should include Holsworthy as well as Badgery’s Creek.

1997

Holsworthy is again eliminated as a potential location.

1998

Local councils vow to fight Badgery’s Creek airport.

2002

Liberal aviation minister John Anderson says Sydney Airport will be able to handle the air traffic demand over the next ten years and Bankstown Airport will be made available as an overflow airport.

This latter idea is later retracted.

2003

Anderson confirms the Australian government now has no plans to build a second Sydney airport, declaring: “Following exhaustive examination it is clear the existing airport at Mascot will be able to handle air traffic demands for a long time to come. ”

2004

Prime Minister John Howard again rules out a new airport on the basis that: “We have a very good airport. There has been a lot of sharing around in relation to the noise burden, and all the information we have says that you don’t need a second airport in the foreseeable future. ”

2009

Labor transport minister Anthony Albanese says the national interest dictates Sydney will need new airport capacity and invites the NSW government to participate in a joint study to “assess options, identify potential sites and evaluate investment strategies for delivering additional airport capacity”.

2012

In its 2012–13 Budget, the then Labor government announced the intention to begin a detailed investigation of the suitability of Wilton as a site as well as assessing the scope for RAAF Base Richmond to handle limited civil operations.

2013

The new Coalition government appears ready to opt for Badgery’s Creek.

Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss, who is responsible for the aviation portfolio, says the new airport will have to be a 24-hour operation and indicated last month (December) a decision will be made early in the New Year after he has considered Sydney Airport’s latest Master Plan. He also suggested a second major airport in Sydney should be up and running well before the 2027 target date suggested by industry analysts.

Significantly, it has also emerged that most Western Sydney local councils – many had opposed the airport over the years – are now supportive. A survey by LiverpoolCouncil – Badgerys is within its area – found 60 per cent of residents are for it, 15 per cent are undecided and 25 per cent are against. And a Galaxy Poll conducted for the Daily Telegraph earlier this year showed almost 75 per cent of voters across NSW want a second airport, with the overwhelming majority wanting it at Badgerys.

Mundy probably knows the story better than most. A former aviation advisor to Labor, he has studies on the subject going back to the days when Peter Morris was Minister for Aviation in the mid-1980s. He also has the shovel the then minister Bob Collins used to turn the first sod for the construction of Badgerys Creek in 1989, a dig that turned out to be a tad optimistic.

But Badgerys was first mentioned as a potential site as far back as 1969. Since then the debate has become an ongoing soap opera, a farce involving political indecision of monumental proportions, numerous governmental reviews and repeated environmental impact studies (EIS). And even if the second airport finally does get the green light, some serious questions need to be answered regarding Sydney’s ability to cope with air traffic growth over the coming years. Even the most optimistic believe it will take as long as 10 years to have a viable international airport fully operational on the city’s Western outskirts… and it will cost billions.

Who, for instance, is going to pay for it?

The Sydney Airport Corporation Limited (SACL) has first right of refusal to take on the task but most observers believe this is unlikely because estimates suggest it will involve a spend of at least $5 billion with no return on investment for at least a decade. If that is the case, Canberra will then have to find a new investor, or consortium of investors, a process that could take up to two years. Another EIS will be able to draw on past studies but that also will take time. Even if a decision is taken immediately it could be three years before work really gets underway. Who, for instance, is going to pay for it?In the meantime, Kingsford Smith is already congested… and not only with aircraft. Traffic jams around the facility during peak periods are worsening because commuter traffic heading to and from the city mixes with traffic trying to get to and from the airport. And when passengers do get to the terminal the chances are their flight won’t be on time. According to data gathered by the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics, in 2012 around 2. 8 million domestic passengers flying into Sydney were delayed by 15 minutes or more and a further 2. 4 million delayed flying out. That number has grown 23. 2 per cent over the last five years, double the increase in people delayed at Australia’s second largest airport, Melbourne. By 2020, the number of people delayed at Sydney is expected to grow to 13 million. With four out of every 10 flights within Australia being operated in and out of Sydney Airport, when disruption occurs there it waterfalls across the national air network.

Yet the airport’s latest 20 year “Master Plan”, which is currently with the federal government awaiting approval, outlines how the airport expects to double annual passenger capacity to 74 million by 2033, without anychanges to runways, curfews or the flight cap. It focuses on getting people to and from the airport, and between the domestic and international terminals. Analysts and industry observers, however, have serious doubts about whether the infrastructure will be able to cope. The obstacles are enormous. A third parallel runway at Kingsford Smith is out of the question, essentially because there is nowhere to put it. Indeed the current parallel runways cannot even be operated independently to increase efficiency because they are too close together, with the additional problem that one of them can’t handle anything bigger than a Boeing 767.

Lifting the 80 movements an hour cap – which most experts believe should be done – will help only slightly. Operationally, it will raise movements only marginally, to 85 or 87 an hour. Neither will removing the curfew help because few airlines want to fly through the night anyway. Besides, according to Mundy, abandoning the curfew would amount to “an act of environmental vandalism”. “A lot of people say aircraft are a lot quieter than they were and they are. A380s are a lot quieter that 747s but if I put an A380 over your house at the same altitude as you put 747s over people’s houses now at 3 o’clock in the morning it’s going to wake you up. I can guarantee it. We are talking about exposing hundreds of thousands of people to aircraft noise in the early hours of the morning. Also if you lift the curfew you’re not going to solve peak hour congestion. ” But the biggest problem is space. Essentially, the terminals at Sydney’s Kingsford Smith Airport (KSA) are in the wrong place. There’s little room to expand without cutting the space aircraft have to taxi and park back even further. Former Qantas chief pilotCaptain Chris Manning underscores the issue. “What we see now is on-time performances really dropping back. We’ve all had to wait. If there’s a single runway operation and if you don’t get the aircraft away first on the first flight of the day the whole day goes and it’s basically Sydney controls Australia. You can’t make more gates without huge capital costs. The airport is growing like topsy. It’s never been designed to handle what it has now. ” He adds that huge amounts of money are being spent with aircraft idly taxiing along. “When you have single-runway operation which is about 140 days of the year, the fuel wastage is immense… and that’s just on the ground. ” Burning extra fuel isn’t the only impact on airlines, according to former Qantas chief economist Tony Webber. “When I think of the economic impact of a congested airport on airline economics I think of four main forces. The first is the impact on the need for the airlines to up-gauge the aircraft during the peak. That means they use biggeraircraft in order to overcome slot constraints and what we have seen over the past three decades is that both domestically and regionally in Australian aviation the average seat count has increased by about 0. 5 per cent to 1. 2 per cent per year. Moving from a little aircraft to a big aircraft during peak times at congested airports leads to, particularly on short routes, sub-optimal use of aircraft because using big aircraft on a short sector has a high unit cost. So that’s bad for airlines.

“The second thing is the impact of congested airports on seat factors. Over the past three decades across all segments of aviation in Australia – domestic, regional and international – there has been an increase in seat factors from around the high 60s to around the 80 per cent mark and if you are loading too many people onto the aircraft your average airfares or yields are probably too low or sub-optimal. We also know that people don’t like to fly on a congested aircraft and that will ultimately impact demand.

“The third is related to ontime performance. We know at congested airports that on-time performance tends to suffer and if you are an airline like Qantas and the new Virgin which is trying to target the business and corporate market where on-time performance is king then that can have a significant effect on their businesses, particularly on their future demand. The fourth, which is something that doesn’t often get talked about, is that most airlines in Asia I estimate are supplying available seat kilometres to the market, or capacity to the market, which is about 40 per cent to 50 per cent of optimum. There’s way too much capacity in the market. ” He has a twist on all of that, saying that if airlines can delay the introduction of a new airport and live with a congested airport this will stifle some of the capacity that’s coming into the market and that will be of benefit to airlines. “It’s strange that you never hear the airlines talk about that as an issue but I think they are actually to a significant extent better off, by virtue of the fact they have too much capacity in the

The population of western Sydney will double within 37 years.

market, to put up with congested airports because it limits capacity growth. That’s not good for the airports but it’s very good for the airlines. ” Webber doesn’t even think a new airport at Badgerys will actually create air traffic growth. “Airlines won’t increase their aggregate capacity into Sydney because of the new airport. I think they will switch some of their capacity into the second airport in the same way as they’ve switched capacity from Brisbane to the Gold Coast and Maroochydore, or from Melbourne to Avalon, just because they like to generate competitive tension between airports for the purpose of getting airport charges down. The existence of an airport doesn’t generate demand for the airport. What generates demand for the airport is the need for people to travel. ” That’s an argument Bob Meyer, director of planning at architects Cox Richardson and an acknowledged expert on Western Sydney’s economy and airport construction, doesn’t accept.

He says the population of western Sydney will double within 37 years. “Surely there’s a market there. That’s another myth… that people in western Sydney don’t fly. It’sa huge multi-racial group. There are something like 130 different ethnicities in the area and they all want to travel and see their families overseas at some point. ” Meyer points out that one of the reasons why Badgerys has always been the winner is the benefit to the growth in western Sydney. “There is a huge deficit of jobs in that area. At the moment there is a deficit of 200,000 jobs which is causing huge congestion on the M4 and M5 and other motorways as people from western Sydney move to Sydney for jobs. It’s an issue. That’s bad enough but the government’s own figures say that will double to about 400,000 so you can imagine the congestion on those roads. The government has reserved a huge area in western Sydney called the Western Sydney Employment Area – its 10,000 hectares – for employment purposes and in the middle of that area sits the 1,300 hectare Commonwealth land for Badgerys Creek airport.

“The whole idea of having an airport next to a major employment area to me makes an awful lot of sense because of the types of industries that could be generated by an airport. The best example I know of is Schipol in Amsterdam which has a big employment area next to it which contains some of Holland’s major industries and commercial enterprises. That is something that could happen in western Sydney and is desperately needed. That’s why Badgerys rings out from all the other straw men that have been put up for airports. At the last census western Sydney hit 2 million people. It’s the third biggest economy in Australia, growing faster than any other area. By 2051 – 37 years to go – which is not a big number in long-term planning – the whole of Sydney reaches a population of 7 million, which is what London was in 2001,Who would fly to Badgerys? “Definitely Jetstar. ”and western Sydney will be 4 million people. ” Manning says the new airport has to be designed correctly, with four runways – two sets of parallel crossing runways – which will allow full use of two runways at any time of the year. “You’ve got to start by designing four runways. Once you do that the technology is available now to differ the tracks. As we all know if you are landing at Sydney from the north you are straight in for 10 miles. That’s absolutely not necessary any more. Technology is available to direct the aircraft’s track to within the last three miles straight and you can guide aircraft to within that three miles straight extension of the runway over non-populated areas, rivers and lakes and actually be accurate to a metre or two. Every aircraft comes with it and the cost savings are enormous.

I wouldn’t bother putting in an ILS (instrument landing system) at the new airport. Put in a GPS landing system. That’s more accurate, less prone to interference and costs a whole lot less to keep going. At a new airport you can use this technology and if there are noise-sensitive areas you can avoid them. ” All of this, he adds, will bring big benefits in noise reduction, emissions and fuel savings. “Most noise isgenerated by these four or two things hanging under the wing and pilots, because we are a conservative lot, power them up because we don’t quite know where we are going as far as air traffic control goes. Once you are on defined tracks you can ease off on the power because you don’t have to be quite as conservative. That reduces the noise so yes, I see a big future for new technology with a new airport. It will certainly be much more environmentally friendly to the surrounds. ”

Who would fly to Badgerys? “Definitely Jetstar,”

says Webber. “It’s a perfect Jetstar demographic. They would definitely like to create competition and competitive tension between the airports. They flew into Avalon and the Gold Coast and Ballina and Maroochydore. It’s a no-brainer that Jetstar and Tiger would leap at the chance. ” There is, however, a rider. He doesn’t believe the major airlines can afford a second airport. “You are adding another fixed cost to the industry. I don’t think a second airport will stimulate passenger volume. I think they’ll still mostly operate from Mascot and if you are adding more fixed cost for the same passenger volume and that means airport charges go up, airlines will face the brunt of it. They’ll try and pass iton to passengers but if they’re still irrational with capacity they’ll find it very hard in that yield environment to pay those higher costs. It’s a tough situation. ” As for Kingsford Smith and its congestion problems, Mundy says it is really in the hands of transport minister Warren Truss. “He has to make the biggest decision any aviation minister has had to make for a long time in this country and that’s whether or not he approves the Sydney Airport Master Plan. The big issue is not what he thinks the ultimate capacity of Sydney Airport looks like and whether it’s full in 2030 or 2033… the real issue is how are they going to get capacity on the ground now. It’s very clear and I suspect there will not be a person who doesn’t know someone who has sat on the apron at KSA coming in on an international flight waiting for 20 minutes for a gate. It happens all the time. If you want to see what’s going on get up the tower at 7. 30 in the morning. The place is full. It needs substantial investment and it needs it now. ” Given the history of airport issues in Sydney, from the debate over a second facility to new runways, it is highly unlikely “now” will materialise.