Asian flashpoint

Could it happen again? The latest Chinese move is clearly political because the new zone includes a group of uninhabited islands – known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China – which are at the centre of a bitter row between Beijing and Tokyo. Both claim sovereignty over these barren specks of land and they’ve been at each other’s throats for years over who they really belong to.

The Chinese gambit is seen by experts as a means of chipping away at Tokyo’s claim to administrative control over the area, the argument being that if airlines officially lodge their flight plans with Chinese authorities it essentially proves that China controls these skies.

What is really worrying is that although Beijing says the new rules will not affect “normal operations” it will take “defensive emergency measures” against any aircraft that fail to identify themselves properly.

That opens a real can of worms and raises the very real question of what a misunderstanding might lead to.

The Chinese air force began patrols in the zone immediately after the announcement, a move that raised the temperature even further. Today’s commercial jets are highly sophisticated and their navigational hardware extremely precise. But a single human error or equipment glitch could easily lead to a serious incident.

The area covered by the new ADIZ isn’t inconsiderable. It is about twothirds the size of the United Kingdom, includes most of the East China Sea and is heavily used by commercial airlines. Not surprisingly, Japan protested. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said China was forcing other countries to conform to its rules and told his parliament: “It’s a unilateral step, changing the status quo in the East China Sea. It escalates the situation and could lead to an unexpected occurrence of accidents in the airspace. It is an extremely dangerous measure and our government has strongly expressed its concerns about it. ” US Secretary of State John Kerry urged China to exercise restraint. While Washington does not take a position on the sovereignty of the islands, it does recognise Japan has

It escalates the situation and could lead to an unexpected occurrence in the airspace.

Japan in the event of an armed conflict. Japan’s own ADIZ overlaps with China’s new zone in part of the East China Sea.

“We might have more risk of encounters with Chinese aircraft in the area,” said one former Japanese air force official. “We need to establish a system to avoid unnecessary incidents. ” China’s Defence Ministry brushes all of this aside, saying it is within the country’s right to set up the zone and called Japan’s response unjustified.

“We reiterate that the purpose of China’s approach is to defend national sovereignty and territorial airspace security, maintain the order of airspace flight and is an effective exercise of our right of self defence,” spokesman Yang Yujun said in a statement.

But, as usual, airlines are caught in the middle of something that is not of their own making and they have little choice but to comply with Chinese demands. A transport ministry official in Seoul said South Korean aircraft flying in the new zone would notify China’s civil aviation authorities of their flightplans. But Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways, which had originally supplied their flight plans to China, stopped doing so after a directive from the Japanese government. With Tokyo calling Beijing’s bluff, the prospect for a serious incident soared.

Nor are Australian operators immune. A spokeswoman for Qantas said its crews would have to comply with the new rules when operating in the airspace in question.

Yi Shin-Juang, deputy director of the air traffic service division of the Taiwan Civil Aeronautics Administration, said Taiwanese carriers would issue similar notifications, but would not be required to adjust flight paths.

There is something else that makes this development more than worrying. In its announcement regarding the East China Sea, China’s Defence Ministry said it “would set up other such zones when preparations were finalised”. That’s significant because China also has disputes with neighbours over control of the South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim parts of the South China Sea, making it potentially one of the region’s biggest flashpoints.