Embraer has released a 20 year forecast predicting five per cent annual growth in regional jet deliveries but says it will have to rely on strong demand from the United States to keep its order book strong in the short term.
Embraer, the world’s third largest planemaker, predicts 6,795 new aircraft will be delivered over the next two decades in the 30 to 120-seat market. Of those aircraft, valued at a total of $315 billion, 53 per cent will replace ageing aircraft while 47 per cent will support new demand. Embraer tabs the world fleet of regional jets to grow from 4,150 aircraft in 2011 to 7,375 by 2031.
Much of that demand, according to the Brazilian company, will continue to come from traditional markets, with North America accounting for 32 per cent of new deliveries and Europe and the former Soviet Union accounting for 28 per cent. But Embraer said demand would gradually shift eastward, with China and the Asia Pacific accounting for 34 per cent of demand by 2031.
In an interview with Bloomberg at the Farnborough Airshow in the UK, Embraer CEO Frederico Curado said the company would need strong demand from the US over the next few years in order to maintain its current order backlog as economic woes linger in Europe and growth slips in some developing economies.
“Without a success in the US, I think it will be very challenging for us to have a 1-to-1 book-to-bill ratio,” Curado said.
But the Embraer boss pointed to ongoing talks with American Airlines and Delta and said he was hopeful that a “sizable” deal for the company’s E-175 jetliner would be announced before the end of the year.