Bombardier Aerospace has lowered its forecast for the commercial aircraft market, but is expecting that the business aircraft market will return to growth from 2013.
The Canadian airframer said in releasing its latest 20 year market forecast that in both the business and commercial (20-140 seat airliners) segments that while there were mixed indicators, trends in both markets remained positive, with demand for new aircraft coming from both developed and emerging markets.
Bombardier is forecasting a demand for 24,000 new business jets worth approximately US$648bn over the next 20 years in the light, medium and large categories it competes in. That is despite an admission from the company that it expects the next year’s output to remain flat, with growth to resume in 2013, led by large category business jets.
Bombardier also noted that North America is still expected to be the largest recipient of business jets over its forecast period, followed by Europe and China. It added that it expects to see major growth from other emerging markets, such as Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Mexico, to boost their share of deliveries over the next 20 years.
On the commercial side of the market, Bombardier sees demand for 12,800 new aircraft generating over US$630bn in revenues. This was down 300 units compared to last year’s forecast, with the company noting that lower GDP forecasts and higher oil prices would have an impact on the market.
By segment, it expects 300 aircraft to be delivered in the 20-59 seat category, 5,600 in the 60-99 seat segment and 6,900 100-149 seat aircraft over the coming 20 years.
It also expects to see a major growth in demand from emerging economies, but the largest number of deliveries will continue to be to North American customers (4,730 new aircraft), followed by China (2,200) and Europe, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (2,240).
Bombardier also noted that it expects more than half of the market for new commercial aircraft will be to replace existing aircraft, higher than it had forecast previously. This will be driven by obsolescence, as well as high fuel prices pushing airlines towards more modern and fuel-efficient aircraft.