J-XX

Many observers initially discounted the photos, claiming clever Photoshop artists were behind the images or that perhaps Chengdu had constructed a full scale mockup. Chinese authorities had never previously allowed such close and open scrutiny of advanced weaponry this early in its development cycle, and the volume of images coming out suggested the Chinese government was controlling their release, thus casting doubt on their motivation. But throughout the Christmas period and into the new year the photos became clearer, showing more details such as moving control surfaces, and the aircraft performing low and high speed taxi tests under its own power.

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was scheduled to make a three day visit to China from January 9 as a prelude to Chinese President Hu Jin Tao’s visit to the US later that month, so the timing of the trials was also of interest.

Coincidentally or otherwise, the J-XX made its first public flight from Huang Tian Ba on January 11, where the aircraft took off accompanied by a J-10A chase plane at 12:50 local time for a short 15 minute flight. The flight gave photographers the first opportunity to capture the aircraft’s large high set delta wing planform and fuselage underside, with images from the flight revealing sufficient space for multiple weapons bays behind the engine intakes, and confirming the forward fuselage’s similar shaping to that of the F-22 Raptor.

Secretary Gates told media travelling with him that President Hu Jintao had assured him that the flight’s timing with Gates’ visit was purely coincidental. “I asked President Hu about it directly, and he said that the test had absolutely nothing to do with my visit and had been a preplanned test,” he said.

Interestingly, some analysts suggested the flight’s timing during Gates’ visit may have been authorised by the Chinese military’s senior leadership without the knowledge of China’s civilian leaders.

Certainly China’s government has undertaken to be more open about its military capabilities and buildup with the west in recent years, and the J-XX’s debut has been seen by some as a first step to meet that undertaking. But regardless of the motivations, the balance in China’s favour appears to have exceeded the expectations of the US intelligence community.

In justifying terminating F-22 production at just 187 out of the USAF’s stated requirement of 380 aircraft in July 2009, Gates boasted that intelligence estimates thought China incapable of fielding a fifth generation combat aircraft before 2020, by which time the US and its allies would have more than 1000 fifth generation combat aircraft in service (F-22s, B-2s and F-35 JSFs). But since then, Russia flew its T-50 PAK-FA demonstrator in early 2010, and China has now flown the J-XX. In that same timeframe, the JSF program has been restructured twice, resulting in the procurement of hundreds of aircraft being delayed, and planned initial operating capabilities pushed back by up to three years.

So there have been suggestions that the timing of the test may have been a lightly veiled message to the US. Speaking just before arriving in Beijing, Gates acknowledged that China appeared to be further along than he had thought. “We knew they were working on a stealth aircraft. I think that what we’ve seen is that they may be somewhat further ahead in the development of that aircraft than our intelligence had earlier predicted,” he said, but stood by his assertion that the US would still hold a vast advantage in numbers. “These notions that we’ve been sort of caught by surprise on this are also off base,” Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said in a January 27 brief. “We’ve talked about their pursuit of the J-20 for a long time, and that’s why we have pursued not just the F-22, which we have in more than enough numbers to deal with any scenario involving China, but also the F-35, to the tune of nearly 2500 planes is still the program of record. So we were well aware of this evolving capability. And what we saw (at the first flight) has not changed the strategic calculus at all, because … what Gates had always talked about on this issue was that by the time they have operationally significant numbers of this aircraft, we will not just have the 187 F-22s, which will be unmatched, but we will also have an abundance of F-35s, in addition to all the other…F/A-18s and F-16s that are… fourth or 4. 5-gen quality. ” So, is the J-XX a prototype, or simply a technology demonstrator much like the US’s X-29 Forward Swept Wing concept, or Russia’s MiG 1. 42/1. 44 and Sukhoi Su-37/47 Berkut concept demonstrators of the 1990s, none of which materialised into production aircraft? The delta wing and forward canard wing planform of the J-XX certainly bears more than a passing resemblance to that of the 1. 42/1. 44, as do the closely set but conventional jet pipes.

But there is apparent western influence on the J-XX as well in the F-22-like forward fuselage, while the intakes appear to borrow from the low observable ‘diverterless’ design of the F-35, and its twin all-moving stabilisers are widely spaced and steeply canted like those of the Northrop YF-23 which lost out to the YF-22 for the USAF’s Advanced Tactical Fighter competition in the early 1990s.

The photographs released to date have so far failed to reveal sufficient detail to determine whether the aircraft is an X plane style research aircraft or a YF-like demonstrator much like the JSF’s X-35 predecessor or the YF-22, or whether it is of a preproduction standard build quality that only requires detail design changes to reach a production standard.

Analysts who believe the J-XX to be a prototype have consistently cited a November 2009 television interview given by He Weirong, the deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, in which he claimed China would fly a fifth generation fighter (fourth generation in Chinese standards) in 2010-11, and that an operational J-20 would be fielded in the 2017-2019 timeframe.

But the generational leap to the J-XX from China’s previously most advancedwas retired by the USAF in 2006 – some reports have suggested China may have gained access to technology from that aircraft after one was shot down over Serbia in 1999. While remnants of that aircraft including the cockpit canopy and other large components are on display in an aeronautical museum in Belgrade, other components were reportedly never found after the crash. While the F-117’s faceted shaping has since been superseded by more advanced curving, the radar absorbent materials developed for the aircraft and which were upgraded throughout its service life may have been of more interest to the Chinese.

The performance of the J-XX is also still to be proven, but the size of the aircraft which has been estimated at 23m long, and its aerodynamic shaping suggests it may have a combat radius of more than 1500km and has the ability to supercruise.

Whether Chinese engine manufacturers have made similar strides in recent years remains to be seen, with some analysts predicting a locally developed WS-15 engine which would be capable of providing such performance and reliability is still some way off, and that China may have to make do with imported Russian engines like the 117S, AL-31F or the more advanced AL-41 being developed for the Sukhoi Su-35 and the PAK-FA.

The planned role of the J-XX is also yet to be established, but long range strike has been mooted as the likely primary role with a competent air-to-air capability as well, much like the Boeing F-15E Strike Eagle and its advanced developments.

“What we know is that a plane that looks different than any other they produced, that they claim to be their J-20, had a short test flight when we were in Beijing,” the Pentagon’s Morrell said. “But we don’t know, frankly, much about the capabilities of that plane, which you saw photographs and some video of. We don’t know yet what the capabilities are of the engine that propelled that plane. We don’t know if it’s a fifth-gen engine. We don’t know if, indeed, it is as stealthy as they claim it to be. ” In a recent Aviation Week article, Bill Sweetman cautioned observers about seeing more in the J-XX than has been revealed to date. He cited over zealous US intelligence estimates of the late 1960s and early 1970s which bracketed the Tupolev Tu-22M Backfire alongside the Rockwell B-1A and classified the MiG-25 as an air superiority fighter like the F-15, neither of which proved to be close to the mark.

Sweetman said analysts and observers alike need to be careful to not ‘mirror-image’ the J-XX with a capability already flying in the west, with the F-22 being the obvious option, and rather analyse the aircraft on its own merits.

This can only be done accurately through the exploitation of a plethora of intelligence assets and sources over time.