Airbus forecasts a stronger recovery

written by australianaviation.com.au | December 14, 2010
The A320neo will compete for a share of the forecast market for 17,900 single aisle aircraft. (Airbus)

Airbus’s latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) predicts a more bullish recovery in demand for new aircraft, projecting an additional 900 aircraft deliveries over the next two decades compared to its 2009 GMF.

The 2010 GMF predicts 4.8 per cent annual growth in airliner deliveries, compared to the 4.7 per cent rate of growth forecast a year ago. In all, Airbus forecasts the world’s airlines will take delivery of almost 26,000 new airliners and new build freighters through to 2029, valued at over US$2.9 trillion. Most of the growth in the forecast compared to last year’s is in the single aisle category, Airbus says.

“The recovery is stronger than predicted and reinforces both the resilience of the sector to downturns and that people want and need to fly,” said John Leahy, chief operating officer customers.

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By size category Airbus is forecasting demand over the 20 year period for:

1700 A380 sized very large aircraft valued at US$570bn;

6240 250-400 seat widebodies worth US$1.34 trillion;

And almost 17,900 single aisle aircraft worth US$1.27 trillion.

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Airbus says airlines in emerging markets are leading the rebound in growth.

“Airlines in Asia Pacific including China and India will carry one third (33 per cent) of the passenger traffic by 2029, making it the largest region, overtaking the US (25 per cent) and Europe (20 per cent),” said Chris Emerson, head of product strategy and market forecast.

Freight traffic is predicted to grow by 5.9 per cent over the forecast period, creating demand for around 870 new freighters (worth US$211bn) and 2100 freighter conversions from passenger aircraft.

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