Supers in the middle

But that was before the latest in a series of slips in the F-35 development schedule which has seen the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and the Pentagon’s deputy acquisition head Ashton Carter substantially restructure the program, more than 100 low rate initial (LRIP) production aircraft cut, a blowout of up to three years in the USAF F-35A’s scheduled IOC, a lagging flight test program, substantial program and unit cost increases, and nervous customers and partner nations considering reduced buys.

What all this means for the RAAF is its initial buy of F-35s, which are currently planned to enter service in 2014 and 2015, won’t be as far down the learning curve as was hoped and thus will be more expensive and less developed than originally planned. And even if there are no more program slips, the schedule hedges built into the RAAF’s acquisition plan for the follow-on tranche buys by the New Air Combat Capability (NACC) office are likely to be severely tested.

So what could prompt a change of heart in air force and see more Super Hornets acquired? Obviously, if there are any further slips in the JSF schedule, the RAAF’s F-35 IOC and FOC schedules will need to be reassessed, as will the classic Hornet fleet’s planned withdrawal, potentially opening up a new capability gap.

The classic fleet will start being wound down from 2015, likely starting with many of the F/A-18B ‘Tubs’ followed by the older F/A-18A single seaters, and is planned to be totally gone sometime in 2020. But apart from the well-publicised fuselage centre barrel fatigue issues suffered by the classics, of which only 10 of the originally planned 49 were replaced by L-3 in Canada before that most complex element of the Hornet Upgrade project (HUG) was abandoned, the classics are also suffering from fatigue in the wings and main landing gear. So far, the RAAF’s and industry’s local engineering workforces have been able to manage these issues, often with their own innovative solutions. But it is likely larger and increasingly difficult to manage fatigue and corrosion issues will crop up in the next few years, possibly resulting in reduced availability and flight restrictions for the classic Hornets, some of which are 25 years old this year.

Since joining the JSF program, the RAAF has long planned to rationalise its fast jet fleet to just one type. Certainly there are longer term advantages in holding out for the JSF and relinquishing the Super Hornets as planned in the early 2020s – there are big economies of scale that come with supporting just one type as opposed to the three the RAAF currently has, then two from 2011, and then three again for the couple of years the classic Hornets and F-35s overlap.

But where does this leave the planned EA-18G capability the RAAF desperately wants? There’s no doubt that, despite everyone saying the $40 million spent on pre-configuring 12 of the Super Hornets for the Growler mission was just a hedge and that no political decision has been made to establish such a capability, many in the RAAF believe an electronic support and attack (ESM/EA) platform will be vital in order to support the JSF in the coming decades.

But if (when?) the decision to retain a number of Growlers is made, that will mean the RAAF will have two fast jet types to support, not one, and it is this that opens up the door for a more equitable split buy of F-35s and Super Hornets. Whilst such a move would no doubt further damage the JSF program by placing further pressure on the aircraft’s units price, it could provide critical mass for both types in the RAAF from a logistics and supportability viewpoint.

Any additional Super Hornets the RAAF buys will be at more or less a fixed price of about US$55m each, while the F-35’s price is approaching US$100m and is expected by some to go higher. A mixed buy would relieve pressure on the defence budget, reduce the expected high support costs of the classic fleet as it approaches retirement, and reduce the longer term costs of operating a small fleet of Growlers in the 2020s and beyond.

Food for thought…