Airbus has released its latest global market forecast, which predicts that 25,000 new aircraft will be required globally over the next 20 years, with larger aircraft expected to feature prominently to ease congestion at major airports.
Despite its own forecast that revenue passenger kilometres will be two per cent lower this year, Airbus expects that strong passenger growth over the next 20 years will average 4.7 per cent per annum, driving demand for 24,100 new passenger aircraft, valued at US$2.9 trillion (A$3.3 trillion). Added to this will be demand for 3440 freighters (including 850 new build aircraft), with freight expected to grow annually by 5.2 per cent.
“Air transportation is a growth industry, and an essential ingredient in the world economy,” says Airbus chief operating officer customers John Leahy. “Technology and innovation are key drivers for an eco-efficient aviation sector, and Airbus is at the forefront of both.”
By segment, Airbus expects there to be demand for 17,000 new narrowbodies, some 6250 aircraft will be twin-aisles, while over 1700 very large aircraft are expected to be required. Interestingly, Leahy told reporters at a press conference that most of those new narrowbodies will be current generation aircraft. “We’ll still be delivering A320s and Boeing delivering 737s in 2020 – maybe with a new engine. An all-new single aisle won’t come out until 2024,” he said.
As with Boeing’s Current Market Outlook, Airbus forecasts that more aircraft deliveries will be to carriers in the Asia Pacific than any other region, which will account for 31 per cent of all deliveries, followed by Europe (25 per cent) and North America (23 per cent).