Debrief

Qantas link decision to drop Narrabri (one of the smallest ports left on the QFL network at 13,000 pa) but retain Moree (26,000), follows the precedent of dropping smaller ports around 100kms from larger ones but is risky unless the bulk of Narrabri ( and nearby Wee Waa) passengers drive to Moree enabling viable loads for the 50 seat Dash 8 300s, now QFL’s bottom line bar a handfull of 36 seat 200s used primarily on Lord Howe Is runs – but with plenty of utilisation available for use elsewhere. Since W11 Narrabri and Moree have been triangulated with Sydney by a succession of carriers using DC3s through F27s to now Dash 8s twice daily.

Aeropelican might offer an Inverell level Jetstream service to Narrabri ( effectively 1 daily) or link it with Inverell offering 2 returns daily but this would add around 45 minutes to Inverell/Sydney flight times making nearby Armidale ( a QFLink monopoly since Rex declined to go there) more attractive.

As things stand linking Narrabri and Moree with the present 12 flights weekly is probably the best user outcome. Unless QFL place Dash 8 200s on that run ( same capacity as their long standing 100service) local political pressure on a heavily pressed government might see NSW transport invite Rex to tender for both ports using Saab 340s. The QantasLink move is high risk and NSW Transport don’t have to accept their tender.

Budget Vs defence procurements

With Canberra facing deficit spending some high cost Defence procurements will come under pressure against vote catching demands. Replacement of some troubled projects could also occur and diagrams circulate of costly large cut down conventionally powered versions of Los Angeles class submarines promoted for the RAN. Under such pressures it beggars belief that one dollar would be spent on converting two KC-30 tankers into VIP Air Force 1s purely to”buy” media support. If ADF strategic logistic demand requires add or convert some to full Quick Change tanker-freighters based on the A330-200F – but that is all. If more media must be carried good deals may soon be available to roll over the VIP BBJs for larger BBJ3s- but leave the KC-30s alone.

Foreign carriers on ” others’ routes”

A few high profile carriers based in small wealthy countries so far immune from the global recession ( or worse?) and who expanded their otherwise small “natural” long haul networks into routes linking other country pairs are now feeling the pinch as a result. Almost without exception they used the bait of bringing wealthy tourists into these countries to promote these expansions but as recent BTRE analyses showed the reverse often ensued, with Australians for example going overseas on these carriers outnumbering inbounds by two or three to one.

As loads and yields on these foreign routes have hurt, some of these “untouchables” reportedly have contingency plans in hand to park relatively new aircraft while operating leased aircraft they are “stuck” with. Perhaps some of these carriers, and others, will return to their “natural” route structures…until the next boom.

Ticket “extras”.

With airlines rolling back fuel levies as oil plummets to stimulate loads a few extras bear scrutiny. Many credit card levies bear no resemblance to what credit providers actually charge. By all means add on the actual percentage providers charge, not flat fees. And with baggage charges milked dry add on fees to use emergency exit row seats with more legroom, or sit next to a partner are a bit rich unless a reduction is offered for those dreaded seats with rigid backs, no window shades, near galleys, toilets or bassinet sites. Perhaps reality now starkly demands capacity cut backs and simple “all-in” easy to compare fares – not dubious Dollar creating fiddles.844