Crystal ball gazing

The spread of the low cost airline carriers (LCCs) has continued at the same time as a stable world economy.

The demand for air travel has continued and airframe makers have big order backlogs.

Worldwide the requirement for pilots has gone sky high to the extent that demand has exceeded supply.

Australia is no exception with all the majors ordering big numbers of new aircraft.

Each aircraft will mean additional crews resulting in the largest recruitment drive in living memory.

Those recruitment programs have seen the airlines vacuuming up pilots from the GA sector as well as accepting applications from the pilots of regional airlines keen to move forward and upward in terms of aircraft flown, remuneration, stability and their employment terms and conditions.

The upward movement has come at the same time as the planned introduction of the Multi Pilot Crew Licence (MPL). Here in Australia there are an increasing number of flying schools clamouring to be an MPL school. The MPL is seen by some airlines and the airframe makers as a way of getting new pilots into the system a lot faster than the traditional method of coming up through the GA industry over a period of years.

Added to this are plans for yet more new-start aviation colleges by some airlines, plus others keen to cater for the lucrative training of overseas students, in particular students from India, China and the Middle East.

Apart from the need to have new and reliable aircraft these schools have a demand for instructors, in particular grade 1 and grade 2 instructors.

It would seem that what is happening is those instructors are being accepted by airlines faster than they can be replaced with the result that flying schools and colleges are finding it very hard to obtain, and retain, the instructing staff that they desperately need to run their operations. From the adverts for instructing staff it is apparent that some operators are still thinking of an era of excess pilots ready to accept the GA Pilot’s award. In today’s demand v supply climate a lot of pilots are saying that the award is simply not enough. Indeed the award has not kept pace with other skilled industries for the last 15-20 years.

There is a noticeable knock-on effect from the lack of available pilots.

Charter and training organisations that have not had to advertise for pilots in the past now have to do so. And the result has not always been satisfactory. Even if they do obtain pilots how long will they stay before moving to airlines? Chief flying instructors are leaving flying schools that cannot afford to replace them. Schools and clubs are having to close or work under another AOC to survive. If they cannot make this type of arrangement they are having to sell their aircraft and become just a social identity.

The decrease in numbers of ATOs, CFIs, and instructors also means that there is a problem in bot h private and commercial pilots obtaining a biennial flight review. Fewer instructors mean that some schools are holding off new student intakes until they can obtain more staff.

Regional operators are cancelling services due to not having enough pilots.

With the increase in new schools comes the demand for modern aircraft. The new build aircraft are typically digital with flat glass screens rather than the traditional round analogue instruments.

This can result in a pilot being trained in a fuel injected digital aircraft but then, if not going straight into the airlines, flying an analogue aircraft that they are not used to. This has resulted in some new pilots being caught out with carburettor icing. Some Indian trainees actually prefer analogue aircraft because that is the type they will initially be flying when qualified.

The decrease in experienced grade 1 and 2 instructors will mean there is a dip in the transfer of knowledge and safety skills to lesser experienced pilots. A result could well be a rise in the accident and incident rate.

Given the decreased number of commercial pilots and the drive to go direct from the MPL college to the airlines, one has to ask what is going to happen with the need for pilots to fly as instructors, charter pilots, air ag and other like occupations? Will there be enough to go around or must another way be devised to obtain pilots for the non-airline flying sector? r Contact Dave via email at flyer02@optusnet. com. au