The Super Commuters are Coming

What the international aerospace community saw in this rapid growth into an entirely new market, a market that wasn’t even envisaged during the mid-seventies, was the need for a new generation of pressurised airliners to replace the hundreds of ageing Fairchilds and Convairs that had rendered faithful service since the fifties and sixties. It was also apparent, though perhaps a little optimistically, that many of the operators using Chieftains,

Bandeirantes and Twin Otters would want to trade up to a larger aircraft of around thirty to forty seats as their traffic volume increased. These new types would have to be extremely fuel efficient, simple to operate and maintain and would be optimised for the typical commuter environment of short sectors combined with quick turnaround.

And so the super commuter was born.

Unfortunately, what generally occurs when somebody somewhere has a good idea is that the whole world will get aboard for the ride. This has happened in recent years with the military primary trainer requirement and has been emulated with the super commuters. In 1980 most of the applicable manufacturers spoke confidently of a 2000 unit market requirement by the year 2000, today that has shrunk to more like 1000 aircraft while the number of firms, in total, competing for a slice of the cake is now a minimum of six. Much of the 1980 calculations were based on Fokker not offering an engine retrofit for their venerable Friendship. If Fokker proceed with this project, as they most probably will, then more than half of the F27s in operation today should easily see a January 1st, 2000 sunrise.

Super commuters have in many respects gone from a great new idea to a massive monetary gamble that could well put great strain on the finances of several major aerospace companies for the remainder of this decade. Already Saab-Fairchild, De Havilland Canada and Embraer have earmarked nearly two billion dollars for their combined development programmes, precisely what that has achieved is best discussed in individual analysis of each type concerned.

Embraer EMB-120 Brasilia

Launched largely on the success of the smaller 15/18 seat Bandeirante, the Brasilia is the smallest of the three aircraft. Embraer claim their market research has been more accurate than their rivals and that a 30-seat aircraft will be in greater demand than a 34 or 36-seater. Certainly, their initial design goals of building a lightweight with high cruising speeds has been achieved as the aircraft is substantially lighter than the SF340 and Dash 8 and is the fastest of the three. The Brasilia is specifically tailored for operating short sectors, 100 nautical miles or so, many times a day. Brasilia in this regard can operate three such sectors with reserves before needing to refuel.

Power is supplied by Pratt & Whitney Canada’s new PW100 engine, this being specifically the PW115 of 1500 shp for normal take-off. Embraer chose the PW100 series engine over the General Electric CT? (employed in the SF340 and Casa Nurtanio CN235) due to their compatible track record with the North American company and the fact that 1500 shp was precisely tailored to a 30-seater. Embraer can also keep their options open on a possible stretch variant to 39 seats at a later date using the more powerful PW120 engine.

The aircraft is configured in a three-abreast arrangement and the typical crew is a single stewardess and two pilots. Passenger access is by a single front door while a large rear cargo hold is designed for easy ground handling without any special mechanical aids. Cockpit instrumentation is based on a five-screen EFIS system.

The Brasilia concept was launched in 1979 with design finalisation being achieved in 1982. Embraer claim current orders for around 100 aircraft, about half of which will be for the military variant which will not markedly differ from the airliner and will be used for liaison, training, maritime surveillance and search and rescue operations. This follows the same destiny line as the Bandeirante a decade earlier and certainly has to be viewed as a considerable asset for the programme. Embraer are aiming at FAA certification around October 1984 with the first production aircraft entering airline service early the following year. Naturally, Brasil’s traditionally generous finance terms will be available and this, no doubt combined with the lower price tag than the competition, will sway many an airline.

Saab-Fairchild 340

The SF340 has two distinct advantages over its competitors. Firstly it is at least eight months ahead of the nearest competitor, the Dash 8, in development and hence airline delivery and secondly, it is by nature a marriage between two successful and established aerospace companies operating on different sides of the Atlantic. What this equates to is a lot more sales clout in the USA, where more than half the anticipated market lies, than an aircraft originating entirely in Europe. On the other hand the SF340 should win favour in Europe for exactly the same reasons.

Fairchild had been interested in building a thirty-seat class pressurised airliner in the late seventies as an adjunct to their Metro programme though had not proceeded due to the financial pressures that such a project would entail. Meanwhile on the other side of the Atlantic Saab Scania had been contemplating getting into the civil field following the abandonment of the Swedish Air Force B3LA requirement. This brought home to Saab Scania the need to diversify out of its traditional military products base in order to ensure continued workload for its aircraft factory. At the Paris Salon in 1979 the two companies undertook discussions aimed at embarking upon a joint project that would in effect solve their respective problems. The new company, Saab-Fairchild (nee Swearingen) was announced in 1980 and design work proceeded rapidly towards an October 1982 rollout and a first flight in January this year. Certification is scheduled for March 1984 with delivery of the first of ten examples to Switzerland’s Crossair being effected the following month.

The SF340 falls nicely between the Brasilia and Dash 8 in almost all respects. Being a 34-seater it still only requires a single stewardess while the EFIS style cockpit presentation makes light work for the two-man flight crew in comparison to earlier generation aircraft. Seating is three-abreast and like its competitors, the aircraft comes complete with full toilet and galley facilities.

Saab-Fairchild have selected the General Electric CT? engine rated at 1675 hp for take-off for the 340. Saab-Fairchild claims that the CT? has the lowest fuel consumption in addition to being the most economical to operate over a period of time. Though new to the civil world the core of the CT? is straight from the proven T700 turboshaft and to date has logged in excess of one million engine operating hours.

The 340 is optimised for up to five 100 nm sectors without having to spend time at the bowser, certainly a primary aim in the busy US market. To date, Saab-Fairchild claim to have total orders for around one hundred aircraft, a quarter of which will be corporate versions, though they freely it that in due course probably only about three-quarters of these will materialise due to the overall economic situation.

De Havilland Canada Dash 8

The largest of the three supercomputers also originates from perhaps the best-known of small airliners, De Havilland Canada. DHC has notched itself an enviable reputation worldwide through their efforts with the Otter, Twin Otter, and more recently the Dash 7. The military Caribou and Buffalo have also performed admirably in their respective roles as dedicated STOL transports.

While the Dash 8 has the best field performance of the three it has not been designed as a STOL aircraft in the same fashion as its larger Dash 7 brother was. Indeed by deleting much of the heavy and bulky STOL lift devices, DHC were able to gain up to a 30 kt cruise gain with the Dash 8 in comparison to the Dash 7. The Dash 8 can still uplift 36 passengers in only 2900 ft (ISA + 15) with landing performance to match thanks largely to its powerful single-slotted flaps and 1800 shp Pratt & Whitney PW120 engines. The PW120 of course is currently the mid-range engine in a family that is already aboard the Brasilia, the ATR42 and BAe’s 748ATP and Fokker’s re-engined F27.

A high wing and tailplane design also provide the possibility of a military transport version for later use while aircraft of this size would probably offer the best all-round compromise to future EEZ patrol requirements.

One advantage for the passenger aboard a Dash 8 will be the roomy cabin and four-abreast seating and extra large baggage area. This is, of course, traded off in weight and in this regard, the Dash 8 is almost forty per cent heavier (operational empty) than the Brasilia. DHC have optimised their 36-seater for fou 100 nm sectors without refuelling or for one sector of up to 600 nautical miles. Cruising at over 300 mph the Dash 8 is beautifully tailored to operating in the hub and spoke environment using an MLS procedure when that system finally becomes operational. De Havilland are well situated both geographically and economically to capture a major share of the US market as the recession ebbs. Certification is planned for September 1984 with initial deliveries commencing soon after and if the relative difference between the US and Canadian dollars holds through the coming twenty-four months then the Dash 8 will certainly be a steal for the US operator.

The Super Commuters in Australia

In Australia, the generic term commuter really refers to regional airliners of the Chieftain to Metro class. Our Regional Airline Directory, printed in the September edition, lists the applicable aircraft types and their operators in greater detail. As far as Australia is concerned the future of the super commuter lies with the more successful commuter operator, expanding up from Metros and Bandeirantes and the established second-level airline augmenting or totally replacing their Fokker F27s. In the latter case these airlines would be looking at the vastly reduced per-hour operating costs of the smaller new technology aircraft combined with an obvious increase in frequency which itself is a proven stimulus to increased traffic flow over a given sector. On the other hand, if Fokker do proceed with their re-engining of the F27 then this scenario may prove fairly hollow as the PW124-engined F27 certainly has a lot to offer new and existing operators of the type.

Certainly, given an eventual end to our present economic difficulties, it is realistic to expect that as the two major domestics withdraw further from their F27 operations there will be a rapid expansion of the better-managed third-level operators. Bush Pilots metamorphosis into a thriving Air Queensland in recent years would be the epitome of this scenario. Likewise, there would be presently in Australia the better part of a dozen third-level operators who could, by 1986/7, be equipping (with the paternal endorsement of the Ansett group and TAA) with either the Brasilia, the SF340 or the Dash 8.

The growth in recent years from ten-seat piston twins to turbine Bandeirantes and Metros was step one in the growth pattern. Nowadays Bandeirante operators are looking to go to faster, pressurised mini-airliners such as the Beech 1900, the BAe Jetstream 31 and eventually, with DofA blessing, the Metro Ill. Skywest has already taken the plunge with the recent Jetstream order and when Beech and Fairchild begin to seriously market their respective aircraft locally then many more commuter airlines will follow. Once an operator is flying aircraft in the Jetstream/Metro class (given economic stability) it is only a matter of time before natural traffic growth necessitates the purchase of a super commuter.

There are other aircraft in the 30 to 50-seat class that bear consideration. The Franco/Italian ATR42 fills the high end of the requirement while The very successful 330 and 360 are hard to argue with on average sectors of less than two hundred nautical miles. The Casa Nurtanio CN235 also lurks on the horizon though all these aircraft differ substantially from the three discussed in this article.

As far as firm orders go, there are none; rather a sales battle has emerged where one talks of ‘firm’ and ‘soft’ options. An option by definition secures an airline a firm place on the production line at an agreed price, which naturally also includes a number of escalation clauses for inflation, etc. Obviously, several Australian carriers have protected their six o’clock by cross-optioning just as most of their overseas counterparts have. In this regard, the civil order books of the three manufacturers are a little rubbery to say the least.

Locally the DHC Dash 8 has at the time of writing 12 firm options. Air Queensland has 6, East West 2 and Talair 4 with another four soft options on the board. The first Dash 8 is expected into Australia in 1985. The Saab-Fairchild 340 also has 12 firm options with Air Queensland having 3, East West 2, Talair 4, United Pacific (NZ) 1 and Kendall with 2. It is worth mentioning that the recent acquisition of the marketing division of Stillwell Aviation, the 340 distributor in Australia, by Ansell will in no way hurt the future sales prospects of this aircraft! Indeed if the Ansell-owned intrastate operators do buy super commuters the 340 will be it. The first 340 is scheduled for local delivery to Talair late next year. Embraer is the slow runner at this stage with four soft options split between Talair and Jakair itself. The first Brasilia will be in-country late in 1985.

In conclusion, one could say that in the short term, the local sales prospects of these three aircraft revolve around the economy staging a complete revival, of rural air traffic picking up by as much as 50% on the 1982 uplift and a strengthening of the Australian dollar. All will no doubt come in time and when it does Australia will pay host to some of the most simple yet innovative advanced technology airliners to grace our skies.