Daily passenger flights shrink amid ‘volatility’ from Iran war

written by Jake Nelson | June 18, 2026

Aircraft at Sydney’s T1 international terminal. (Image: Sydney Airport)

Australia’s aviation network has recorded its first contraction in daily passenger flights in more than 10 months.

In its Australian Aviation Network Overview report for May 2026, Airservices Australia said that while aviation had shown “ongoing resilience and flexibility” during the Iran conflict, the war had caused “real pressure on the sector” as it stretched past 100 days.

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It comes as the US and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire ahead of more formal negotiations to end the war.

Daily passenger flights were down 2.5 per cent year-on-year, while around 180,000 Australian domestic seats were removed compared to May 2025, representing a 3.8 per cent reduction in flights.

“These adjustments were concentrated on high-volume capital-city corridors, alongside targeted reduction in lower-demand regional and leisure services and optimisation of longer, fuel-intensive sectors.

 
 

“This reflects measures to maintain core network coverage while moderating lower-yield capacity. Domestic flight volumes at major East Coast capital-city airports are tracking approximately 3-5 per cent below last year’s levels.”

The report also noted, however, that projected weekly demand capacity “is still tracking just above 2025 levels”.

“Domestic demand softened, with capacity adjustments concentrated on major capital-city corridors and targeted lower-yield routes. This reflects a near-term recalibration to maintain core connectivity while optimising capacity, fleet utilisation and yield,” Airservices said.

“International growth moderated to 1.3 per cent, well below the 12-month average of seven per cent with clear divergence across markets.”

According to the report, Middle East traffic remains more than 40 per cent below last year, constrained by “ongoing disruption to key transit routes”.

“In contrast, Asia Pacific markets continue to grow steadily, supported by short to medium-haul demand and capturing displaced European traffic. North American demand is building, underpinned by a strengthening Australian dollar during this reporting period and increased transpacific capacity,” it read.

“The Middle East conflict is further disrupting already constrained aircraft supply chains, contributing to record backlogs of over 16,600 aircraft on order globally.

“At the same time, continued deployment of next-generation aircraft into the Australian network, albeit at a slower pace, is supporting improved efficiency and environmental outcomes.”

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) this week lowered its travel warnings across much of the Middle East as the potential peace deal approaches.

Travel advice for Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE has been lowered from level 4 (“do not travel”) to level 3 (“reconsider your need to travel”), though some areas in Israel remain at level 4. The move will make it easier for Australians to transit through the Gulf to Europe.

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