Was 2020 the year drones crossed the tipping point?

As Carmody had resigned, effective December 2020, he mentioned some important unfinished tasks he will be handing over to his successor. The finalisation of the new continuing airworthiness regulations – CASR Part 43, for general aviation; and aerial work incorporating future CASR Parts 91, 137 and 138 operations. The aim is to develop a more efficient regulatory environment to provide for reduction of costs while maintaining appropriate level of safety. 

The annual report showed on 30 June 2020, CASA employed 857 ongoing and non-ongoing employees in Australia. Financially, the regulator recorded an operating deficit of $12.4 million in 2019–20, compared with a $3.5 million operating deficit in 2018–19. 

The operational statistics for such a small nation of only 25 million has dwarfed many of the results coming from our 21 Asia-Pacific associates. CASA has a regulatory relationship with 31,203 pilots operating 15,721 registered aircraft. Commercial operations were conducted by 791 air operator certificate holders, which were outnumbered by 1,952 remotely piloted aircraft operator certificate holders and 16,482 remote pilot licence holders. The maintenance industry employed 9,218 licensed aircraft maintenance engineers who generally worked within 665 maintenance organisations. There were 320 licensed aerodromes, which resulted in the employment of 1,012 air traffic controllers. 

In summary, CASA is indirectly connected with more than 100,000 people who are involved in the Australian aviation industry, and the many millions of passengers whose safety is CASA’s primary concern. 

Helicopter registrations showed very limited growth. On 30 June 2020, there were 15,721 aircraft registered, of which 2,335 (15 per cent) were helicopters. By categories, 1,338 were single engine piston, 628 single engine turbine, 185 multi engine below 5,700 kilograms and 81 multi engine above 5,700 kilograms. 

But the Australian helicopter register only increased by 3 per cent over three years or 1 per cent per year, well below the GDP of 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent pa. A decade ago, the helicopter fleet grew by at least twice the GDP or more! 

Globally, Australia has the third largest number of helicopter registrations. The top are the US – just under 10,000; Russia – 2,400; Australia – 2,350; Canada – 2,000; South Africa – 1,300; France –1,200; UK – 1,100; China – 1,000; and New Zealand – 950.

Australian and New Zealand aviation industry key players would be pleased to note the recently convened Rotorcraft Asia-Pacific Business Association (RAPBA) has just released a study that shows the number of helicopters in the Asia Pacific region totals 6,600, which is close to the European Union’s total of 6,890. RAPBA stated that Australia with 2,357 and NZ with 989 helicopters, a total of 3,346, have a little over half of the total APAC registrations. Good news for the Australian and New Zealand industries when the global recovery gets underway, maybe in late 2021? 

In conclusion, the drone industry is booming. In less than half a decade, the drone industry registrations (12,500) now outnumber the helicopter (2,350) numbers fivefold. Drone commercial operators (1,925) also outnumber helicopter AOC (250) holders by around seven to one. Helicopter commercial pilots (3,600) are dwarfed by the number of UAV pilots (16,482). The drone industry suppliers often comment on having record sales – mostly Chinese products. Food for thought, and caution, in these trade tension times caused by awkward geopolitics. 

Can traditional small helicopters compete in the emerging global e-VTOL urban air mobility market? 

The lure of the coming urban air mobility (UAM) industry has resulted in billions of dollars being invested in hundreds of designs which have the potential of operating successfully in highly populated areas where ground transport is not able to keep up with the growth of the population or threats from criminal or radicalised political groups pose a severe security threat. 

For example, São Paulo is a municipality in the Southeast Region of Brazil that has a population of 30 million. São Paulo is the world’s fourth largest city proper by population. An estimated 600 helicopters are located in the region and use 220 licensed heliports close to the CBD. This is due to the risk of kidnapping of wealthy business executives or their families. By comparison, Brazil has almost the same number of helicopters as Australia. Understandably, many residents of São Paulo see the UAM industry as a welcome addition to existing secure travel services. 

‘CASA is indirectly connected with more than 100,000 people who are involved in the Australian aviation industry’

Brazil is one example which has prompted UAM marketing gurus to explain how the small new aircraft designs carrying up to half a dozen passengers will be used. Globally it has been accepted the UAM vehicles will have a number of electric motors driving much quieter small rotors allowing operations into restricted areas, often in noise sensitive neighbourhoods. The battle against UAM infrastructure is about to start when local governments will be forced to listen to protest groups, who no doubt will be complaining about the perceived noise issues. 

Hopefully, advances in carbon fibre technology, electric motor design, computerised autopilots being directed by artificial intelligence (AI) and GPS navigation systems means life in the new UAM world will be much the same as the Uber taxi services operating on the streets below the UAM platform. 

But there have been challenges in reaching the current state of development. Batteries and the replenishment time at recharging points is a serious problem – with a rather expensive infrastructure solution. Today, battery powered aerial VTOL vehicles only have half the range or endurance of a piston engine helicopter. Great progress is being made in developing hybrid aircraft similar to small motor vehicles that have electric engines powered by an on-board piston engine and a large battery. 

Understandably, UAM service providers would have paused to reflect on the suitability of older helicopter types such as the two-seat Bell 47 helicopter, which was certified by the FAA in March 1946. Around 6,000 were produced. 

Design philosophies for the new UAM vehicles recognise some very serious hurdles must be overcome. The designs must focus on low noise levels and minimal hydrocarbon emissions. Using a number of electric engines driving a number of rotors provides some form of redundancy in the event of an engine failure. 

More recently, the designers have realised to get an operating advantage over their competitors, the new vehicles must be able to move quickly and over longer distances. Unfortunately, the solution has not yet been fully researched; however, a faster moving, longer-range UAM vehicle will need to have wings to allow the lift rotors to become thrusters pushing the vehicle forward while the wings carry the load. Obviously, a large number of tilt wing or tilt engines fitted to fixed wings have been test flown to seek a workable solution. 

When comparing the old technology with the new technology now being developed, there are very few piston engine helicopters that could be considered for UAM applications. The world’s bestselling light helicopter is the Robinson Helicopter Company’s four-seat R44 piston engine helicopter – a prime candidate for a research program. Frank Robinson carefully built on the success of his original two-seat R22 design and produced the R44, now fastest in its class. It has an efficient rotor system and the engine to rotor drive systems and gearboxes have proved to be very reliable and with a proven low operating cost. 

‘When comparing the old technology with the new technology now being developed, there are very few piston engine helicopters that could be considered for UAM applications’

US-based company Eco Helicopters has taken a commercial risk by developing an Electrical Power Unit (EPU) for the R44. The EPU consists of an electric engine that replaces the piston engine and a battery located under the fuselage. Sceptics may ask what the advantage is for all this new technology for the R44; already a success in its own right. But the reason is simply financial. The low maintenance cost of electric engines, low cost of installation and probably only using around $20-$30 per hour for electricity. The R44 piston engines model consumes 60 litres per hour. The avgas cost would be many times the cost of electricity. Also, the cost of a piston engine overhaul (say 2,200 hours) when compared with that of an electric engine overhaul is a very significant cost saving. 

Unfortunately, by comparison to the much quieter proposed UAM helicopters, the R44 has a significant noise signature when operating close to built-up areas or onto helicopter landing sites on rooftops. But Eco Helicopters is marketing the R44 fitted with an electric engine as the R44 EcoMax. To obtain potential customers’ attention, the press release states the modification of the four-seat, piston-engine R44 to electric propulsion is already underway for the organ transport mission, which requires a relatively fast helicopter with a reasonable range to carry a small container for the organ being transferred to a hospital. 

Proposing a rather unique business model, Eco Helicopters plans to sell new R44 piston engined machines to investors for use while the supplemental type certificate (STC) is being processed by the FAA. The owners then lease them back and operate them under Eco Helicopters’ Part 135 charter certificate. Owners will prepay for their modification to electric EcoMax helicopters once the STC is available. 

Rather than wait for certification of an electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft and then set up an air taxi service, Eco Helicopters plans to begin operations with R44s that will be converted to electric propulsion once approved. 

This will give owners immediate revenue (profit) from Eco’s operation of standard R44s, which will increase when the helicopters are converted to electric propulsion with its lower operating costs. Eco Helicopters plans to begin on-demand R44 operations in the Los Angeles basin in the second quarter of 2021. 

The electric-powered R44 EcoMax will have a shorter range than the avgas fuelled R44, but sufficient flight endurance between battery recharging or swapping to cover the same service area. 

“It won’t fly to 2.5 hours, but it will fly the same routes,” says Eco Helicopters CEO Ric Webb, who was project test pilot for the prototype, setting a world distance record for an electric-powered helicopter of 30 nautical miles in December 2018. 

Webb also has stated, “We save the Lycoming motor, put it back in and give them back the aircraft. It’s a safer bet.” 

Flight Safety Australia warns about in-flight drone failures of heavy cargo drones 

On 5 November 2020, CASA’s flagship aviation safety magazine, Flight Safety Australia, shared an article, ‘Soft failures, hard landings!’ by Brendan Reinhardt, with industry. The purpose was to alert readers about the little-known problem of accidents resulting from a loss of control due to software errors or structural failures of larger drones. An edited version follows. 

CASFlight test reports tell eloquently of the new capabilities and new challenges electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) will bring. Manned or unmanned, eVTOL aircraft are an exciting and promising technology with the potential to make aviation even more accessible and a greater part of everyday life. But will people trust them? The consequence of a software-controlled air vehicle becoming unstable with untrained passengers or over unaware people on the ground means great rigour must be applied to the development of these vehicles. 

Accident reports from the test community show some of the challenges of creating safe and certified eVTOL systems. The maturing of the technology is evident in the open and honest reporting of these incidents. Lessons are being learnt and shared, improving safety for all. But the issues being uncovered will need to be solved and certified before the public regards the safety of these machines as the same as driving your car or having a parcel delivered.

For example, the Boeing CV2 (photo), a giant drone designed to carry 200 kilograms of cargo. Without a pilot or crew, the consequence of an accident is reduced for the operator. But 200 kilograms falling from the sky is more than enough to damage or kill. Therefore, standards for this type of aircraft cannot be less than for a piloted aircraft if either is to operate over populated areas. 

In 2019, a CV2 sustained substantial damage during a contingency landing during flight testing. The aircraft was turning after take-off to parallel the runway in 30 knots of wind, when it deviated from the programmed flight profile. The system identified the anomaly and immediately aborted the flight to a planned landing zone. However, it exceeded its first geo-fence boundary and then initiated a ‘land now’ procedure, whereupon it drifted further before exceeding the final geo-fence zone. Then, the vehicle logic cut all power to the vehicle and it dropped to the ground (as designed) and was substantially damaged. 

The analysis showed that higher than expected winds (30 knots) caused the initial deviation as well as high vibration within the aircraft navigation system. It was determined there had been insufficient tests related to high crosswinds and insufficient ability to determine wind effect during test flights. Further, the physical separation between abort zone and geo-fences was inadequate for an aircraft to manoeuvre in the crosswinds. 

Another example was the software mix-up resulting in an accident. The Kittyhawk Heaviside 2 is an eVTOL developmental single-seat aircraft that can take-off and land vertically but also fly like a conventional fixed-wing aircraft. It was undergoing a flight test with a new version of developmental software. It was flying without a pilot and, at the time of the incident, being controlled by a ground station with the pilot-in-command (PIC) observing the aircraft from the ground. About 10 minutes into the flight, the ground station notified the PIC multiple flight computer limits were exceeded; the PIC took manual control of the aircraft and initiated an immediate landing. The PIC noticed degraded control and positioned for a conventional vertical landing into wind. 

As the aircraft slowed and transitioned to a hover configuration, there was further doubt about aircraft control and the aircraft landed with 37 knots of forward speed, 20 degrees nose down and 20 degrees of left roll. The aircraft was not designed for forward landings and was substantially damaged, with the nose section separating from the aircraft. 

Review of the aircraft data showed a software timing error had occurred that affected the software-driven flight controls. This timing error was caused by another software program that was used to manage the charging of the aircraft batteries on the ground. This software had, due to operator error, not been properly stopped by the ground station prior to flight. The battery charging script running in an error state in the background during flight significantly increased use of computer processing resources and caused the timing error to occur. This error was able to be repeated in the ground-based hardware in the loop simulator. 

Dumbing down for consumer drones is necessary but hard to do, thus the need for smart systems. The challenge for developers of eVTOL aircraft is their entire systems will have to be safe ‘out of the box’. Unlike the pioneering days of manned aviation 100 years ago, there will be no opportunity to learn safety by trial and error and write its rules in human blood. In contrast to early 20th century aviation, there is no frisson of glamour to eVTOL flight and it is not regarded as a heroic activity. 

DO-178 Software Considerations in Airborne Systems and Equipment Certification is a set of guidelines that deal with safety critical software for use in airborne systems. It is essentially a standard for developing avionics software that has safety of flight considerations. DO-178 does not specify what type of code or how to write software; moreover, it specifies a process that must be followed depending on the failure condition that may result. DO-178 has five main software processes — planning, development, verification, configuration management and quality assurance. At the start of the software design process, the failure condition needs to be correctly identified as, once the DO-178 process is started, a change in failure condition will mean restarting the process. 

Companies such as Skyryse are developing new ways to control helicopters utilising an iPad to reduce the training requirements for the pilots. The organisations building these aircraft are aware of the software certification standards that are required to bring their aircraft to the general public. The software certification standards outline processes required for the different levels of consequence. Meanwhile, makers test their aircraft in remote areas away from the population and conduct initial tests without anybody in the aircraft to safely develop their products. Years of developmental flight test will be needed to make this form of aviation safe and reliable.

Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements 

The final report was released on the 28 October 2020 and it was immediately accepted by all states and territories. The report was timely, and accurately reflected lessons learnt in the past and what had to be done in the future to maximise Australia’s capability to fight future disasters; in particular, the summer bushfires. Globally, bushfire seasons were existing for longer periods of time due to the alleged impact of global warming. 

This led to the present overlapping of northern and southern hemisphere bush fire seasons, which prevented aviation assets being moved from one hemisphere to the other, thus creating a grave shortage of firefighting equipment. The royal commission was directed by the government to have the report completed prior to the commencement of the 2020-21 bushfire season. It is essential reading for all those involved in this essential industry segment. 

Australian Aviation’s Adam Thorn reported on 30 October 2020 that the bushfire royal commission’s final report has recommended that Australia creates a new national aerial firefighting fleet funded by state and federal governments. The long-awaited investigation said it had heard evidence that existing aircraft were not shared between states and territories last year because of the intensity and length of the ‘black summer’ bushfire season. 

It also criticised the slow progress towards creating a new hazard warning system, which was first called for in 2004. The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements was first proposed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison in February and is currently headed up by former Federal Court judge Annabelle Bennett, leading environmental lawyer Andrew Macintosh and ex-ADF chief Air Chief Marshal (Ret’d) Mark Binskin. 

‘As silly as this sounds, all fires start small so the key should be how to keep them small and prevent them developing into large fires’

The commission received more than 1,700 submissions and heard from more than 290 witnesses.

The most significant recommendation is the call for a new “sovereign aerial firefighting capability” that can be easily shared between areas in need. 

“The increasing duration of fire seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres, and the increasing duration and severity of fire seasons in Australia, will make it increasingly difficult to share aircraft domestically, and to acquire aviation services when we need them, particularly at short notice,” read the report. 

“We, therefore, believe that there is merit in the Australian, state and territory governments together ensuring the development of a sovereign aerial firefighting capability of sufficient size and versatility to better meet national needs. 

“We define Australia’s sovereign aerial firefighting capability as the collective Australian-based aerial firefighting capabilities of the states and territories, supported by a national capability which is jointly funded by the Australian, state and territory governments. These capabilities should be maintained through procurement and contracting strategies that support the Australian-based aerial firefighting industry. 

“The development of a modest Australian-based and registered national fleet of VLAT/LAT aircraft and Type-1 helicopters, jointly funded by the Australian, state and territory governments, will enhance Australia’s bushfire resilience.” 

The commission names climate change as a major factor in the increased severity of bushfires and cites evidence Australia has warmed by 1.4 degrees since 1910. 

“State and territory governments should urgently deliver and implement the all-hazard Australian warning system (AWS),” the report stated, which would better help make Australians aware of bushfires or natural disasters near them. 

Of particular interest to the commissioners was the 42-page submission by John McDermott, managing director and chief pilot of McDermott Aviation. 

McDermott stated, “The concept of the Wolfpack Strike Force should [be] read carefully by newcomers to this industry, as it is reflecting lessons learnt by the international firefighting community.”

In reply to a question on this topic from the royal commission, McDermott’s answer was, “Small fires – large fires? As silly as this sounds, all fires start small so the key should be how to keep them small and prevent them developing into large fires. The answer is early and effective intervention.” 

McDermott’s advice is no doubt based on his experience over several decades fighting wildfires around the world. The Wolfpack Strike Force concept has been rather slow in being accepted by Australians; however, to be fair our fires are normally spread over large areas with very small populations. Therefore, observations of an outbreak may not be easily identified, the commander control system in past years were still undergoing development and firefighting resources, both air and ground, were few and far between. 

But today, satellite technology, airborne infrared sensing devices fitted to aeroplanes, helicopters and drones can feed real-time data into many computer systems at many headquarters enabling a very sophisticated data analysis and the timely tasking of resources. The commission no doubt looked at the good and the bad reports flowing from the recent bushfire disasters and will make appropriate recommendations. 

To its credit, the commission, due to the coronavirus pandemic, has to overcome challenges in meeting planned timelines. The majority of the work had to be completed prior to the oncoming fire season in Australia to ensure we can learn from the lessons of the past and be better prepared. In early August, international media was reporting on large wildfires occurring near Los Angeles in California. This makes our emergency service workers rather nervous! 

McDermott Aviation is the largest privately owned helicopter operator in Australia (wholly owned, based, and operated from Australia) – employing more than 160 staff. Current helicopter fleet totals 32, consisting of four Bell 206 LongRangers; an AB 205 (The AB 205 helicopter is the version of the famous UH-1 “Huey”, widely used in the Vietnam war); 15 x Bell 214B; one x Bell 204; three x Bell 47 Soloy; eight x AS365 Dauphine and six x AS355 Twin Squirrels.