A strong pipeline

Those airlines, as well as airports and aviation-related industries, will need more qualified engineers, cabin crew and pilots to meet that expected demand.

Boeing’s recently released Pilot and Technician Outlook forecast the Asia Pacific would need 248,000 new pilots between now and 2035. The figure is more than one-third of the 679,000 new pilots required worldwide, highlighting how the likes of China, India and Indonesia will come to dominate aviation in the years ahead.

Those involved in training future pilots talk about the new ways of bringing those with little or no aviation experience into the system with all the necessary skills to safely deliver hundreds of passengers sitting behind the flightdeck to their destination day in, day out.

The Boeing forecast makes note of these challenges, saying new technologies, devices and training methods would be needed to meet a wide range of learning styles. Also, the growing diversity of aviation personnel would require instructors to have cross-cultural and cross-generational skills to engage tomorrow’s workforce.

We regularly hear the phrase “looming pilot shortage”, of increasing competition to secure the best talent, whether that be from other airlines or from a general aviation sector genuinely fearful of losing its more experienced pilots lured away by the major airlines both at home and abroad.

At a CAPA – Centre for Aviation conference in Brisbane in early August, Australian and International Pilots Association president Nathan Safe sought to downplay the prospect of a pilot shortage in this country, arguing Australia is regarded as an attractive place for pilots to work.

Safe, who flies Boeing 737-800s at Qantas and describes himself as a pilot shortage sceptic, said qualified pilots were “very happy to come and fly in Australia”, noting Jetstar recently recruited a number of South African pilots and the recent return of some pilots who had flown with overseas carriers back to Australia.

Further, the government has levers it could pull, such as the use of 457 work visas for foreign pilots, should there be any critical pilot shortage.

Also at the conference was Jetstar group chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka, who said the airline’s recent advertisement for pilots received 700 applicants from “all over the country and different aspects of aviation”, which highlighted the “strong pipeline” of pilots here.

However, as with many other aspects of global commerce from powdered milk to iron ore, China’s shadow looms large over aviation.

Hrdlicka described China as “behind” in the development of its own pipeline for pilots, adding this had created “tension around the region” and was a hot topic currently.

In a local context, a number of foreign carriers, including those from China, have set up or partnered with flight training schools to help bolster their pilot ranks. Two such examples are Guangzhou-based China Southern’s pilot training school at Perth’s Jandakot Airport, while Cathay Pacific and its regional wing Dragonair have been sending prospective pilots to Flight Training Adelaide for many years.

The question of pilot recruitment also comes down to economics. Can the current wages and conditions prove sufficiently attractive to maintain the pipeline of suitably-qualified pilots? Specifically, does a prospective pilot outside of the cadet programs think spending tens of thousands of dollars in training, not to mention the months or even years of study to gain the necessary qualifications, represents a worthwhile investment in time and money? Some of the evidence, at least in the United States, suggests “no” is becoming a more common answer. A 2015 report from Aviation Week said the number of US students enrolled at four-year aviation programs at the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University or the University of North Dakota were down “significantly from pre-2002 levels”.

The report noted foreign students, particularly from the Asia Pacific, were filling those seats, citing not just the booming market in the region but also the prospect of moving directly to flying jet aircraft after obtaining their licence and “several hundred hours” of flight time.

In comparison, a US student with a four-year aviation degree required 1,000 hours of flight time to reach the same position, often at a “regional” carrier where salaries were about US$30,000 a year.

So will airlines offer higher pay in what has become a very competitive global marketplace for talented workers? Or will they relax entry requirements to open up the pool of potential candidates? And does this represent a compromise in safety standards? There are no easy answers in this. And as the issue of fatigue among the pilot corps around the world gains greater prominence, it is clear simply working existing pilots harder, while staying within limits imposed by the regulator, is not a durable, long-term solution.

Qualified pilots were “very happy to come and fly in Australia”.