Time critical

Hindsight shows that was a wise decision. It allowed the F-111 to be retired with dignity. It meant there was no capability gap in RAAF air power. And it immediately relieved pressure off the RAAF’s ambitious F-35 delivery schedule.

At the time the RAAF was reluctant to head down a ‘bridging’ fighter path, as it was committed to replacing all its classic Hornets and the F-111s with a single type. The concern, albeit one never publicly spoken of, was that an interim fighter would prove to be anything but, that like almost everything else the ADF acquires it would remain in service for 20-30 years, and that ultimately the RAAF fighter force would be less capable and more complex to maintain and operate (given the need for two training and maintenance systems for two different types).

Fast forward a decade and a two-type fast jet force will be a part of the ADF’s order of battle for the foreseeable future, not only with the subsequent acquisition of EA-18G Growler, but also the new Defence White Paper’s Integrated Investment Program document’s confirmation that the “Super Hornet has been extended beyond its initial bridging capability timeframe and it is now planned to be replaced by around 2030” – ie 20 years after entering service. “Its replacement could include either a fourth operational squadron of Joint Strike Fighters or possibly a yet-to-be developed unmanned combat aerial vehicle”.

So it’s possible the RAAF may never operate a fleet of 100 F-35s as was the intent for more than a decade after Australia committed to the Joint Strike Fighter program back in 2002.

But that may well prove a good thing.

For all of this current decade Australia will have in the Super Hornet a fast jet equal to anything in the region, without having to nurse ageing F-111s or bring into service still immature F-35s.

Then at the other end, the Super Hornets could be replaced by more F-35s, or by something else entirely different. Not being locked into 100 F-35s doesn’t mean the RAAF won’t end up with that number, but it does mean the RAAF will enjoy the flexibility of building an order of battle that takes best advantage of the technologies of the day to meet the geopolitical challenges of the day.

Because what a fighter looks like in 15 to 20 years time could be very different to what we know them as today.

In early April the US Air Force announced some initial findings of its ‘Air Superiority 2030 Enterprise Capability Collaboration Team’, which is looking at the service’s fighter needs beyond the F-35.

“Fighters are typically short range – we’ve got to field, to be able to operate from range,” team lead Col Alex Grynkewich told media in early April. “Do you put the sensors on the platform or do you disaggregate them somewhere else? It starts to look like something very different from something that we would traditionally think of as ‘sixth-gen’. ” Col Grynkewich observed that: “It takes a network and an integrated system of systems or a family of systems in order to handle that highly contested environment in the future. ” Those considerations are in their infancy, but it does illustrate the point that the capability that ultimately replaces the RAAF’s Super Hornets could look very different to what we think of as a fighter today.

And in the meantime another wise political decision on the path to Australia’s F-35 acquisition, at least in hindsight, is paying dividends. Stephen Smith’s decision in 2012 that delivery of all bar the first two jets of Australia’s initial buy of 14 F-35s would be deferred two years not only pushed back the bulk of Australia’s F-35 acquisition to take advantage of economies of scale where as production ramps up unit costs should fall, but has also given the F-35 development program time to further mature and for the aircraft’s “warts” to be burned off, ahead of finally achieving an initial operating capability in late 2020. That is a timeframe that may still “rear up upon us”, as the RAAF’s first F-35 pilot, SQNLDR Andrew Jackson, has observed, but it does look achievable.

It’s possible the RAAF may never operate a fleet of 100 F-35s.