Behind the numbers

Brisbane’s runway setup is often blamed, but some claim there is more to it, especially when two flights are combined into one, services to mining towns are cancelled and peak-time flight pairs are cancelled or rescheduled. The inference is that flights are combined to boost load factors to free up scarce slots at Brisbane or Sydney, or due to maintenance or crew problems. Suspicions are being raised by several combinations appearing more often.

Australian statistics don’t offer the level of detail provided by US figures, for example. The US Department of Transportation’s monthly Air Travel Consumer Report and Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) data provide great detail, specific criteria and explanations. The absence of such detail here in Australia breeds suspicion.

Blaming air traffic control (ATC) may be valid if an equipment failure or staff shortage is the reason for a delay, but not if the traffic level and mix exceeds the capacity that the airport design and/or shared airspace architecture allows, emergency and medical traffic aside. ATC has been extremely active in implementing measures to cope with increased capacity.

Adverse weather can worsen the situation, either reducing capacity or resulting in runways or entire airports being closed. Many airports say they only need to close if bad weather makes tarmac handlinghazardous. But if aircraft can’t safely make an approach or takeoff due to thunderstorms, for example, the airport is effectively closed. To its credit, one regional ATC unit recently declared its aerodrome closed due to hazardous weather when severe turbulence plus strong over and undershoot wind shear were present, although the apron was clear.

ATC used to routinely close airports and route segments due to severe weather, precipitated by the inflight breakup of a Viscount over Botany Bay and a few near misses, and likewise when the weather was below the landing or takeoff minima. As minima fragmented from system to system, type or operator – some possessing autoland – closure due to minima breaches became impractical and was dropped. But many believe that thunderstorms and other hazards should still lead to routine closures.

Airport problems, security matters, carrier problems and aircraft arriving late feature among the standard reasons for delays in the US. RITA offers deeper analysis and explanation, but isn’t perfect. If similar data was available in Australia, there would be less finger-pointing and ignorance, and the true reasons for delays known. This could lead to improvements.

Queensland sees a few regulars. Brisbane weather and traffic can delay late departures up the coast. Crew rest hours overnight can result in delays to early morning return flights favoured by business travellers. A late departure the previous night or early in the morning, for any reason, cansee one Newcastle to Brisbane morning flight delayed, in turn inevitably delaying or leading to the cancellation of a prime Mackay flight or a Rockhampton service. Apportioning blame for such delays is difficult as multiple factors could be involved.

All on-time performance systems use the flight number as the basis. But in many cases, passengers are uplifted on other flights, or in dribs and drabs. A recent cancellation of a flight to a mining town saw passengers uplifted on another flight 15 minutes later. In theory they departed on time, as 15 minutes is the current local and US threshold. A foreign heavy that diverted to a remote regional port saw its passengers uplifted on several flights over several days – it departed on a ferry flight number without passengers. Those passengers last out got a far worse on-time performance than the first lot.

Perhaps serious flyers and relevant business and tourism bodies should study the US data sites RITA and the Air Travel Consumer Report, and a couple of European efforts, to get a balanced mix of distance, weather and traffic inputs, and jointly define meaningful on-time performance criteria that suit our needs.

It defies credibility that daily the media give out real-time, network-wide train and bus delays, including on the route to Brisbane Airport, with precise technical explanations, fixes and timed alternatives, but passengers can’t get anywhere near this degree of reason with monthly reporting of airline flight disruptions.