Knipping at their heels

The first true regional jet was the Fokker F-28 of the 1960s but its enlarged version the Fokker 100 ran headlong into the 717 (MD95) 737 and A320 as did the larger models of the BAe146.

Smaller regional jets have been extremely successful, typified by Bombardier’s twin-engine Canadair Regional Jet, which became a best-seller. The CRJ and its competitor the ERJ-145 were small enough not to bother the big two and of course offered a totally different capacity and mission.

The ERJ’s success has led to totally new models in the E-Jets series, while Bombardier decided not to compete directly and move headlong into the bottom of the 737/A320 market with its CSeries.

Along the way the Fairchild Dornier 328JET production life was cut short at only 111 sales by the company’s bankruptcy which also ended the Fairchild-Dornier 728, which had attracted strong airline interest. The BAe146/Avro RJ was scrapped early last decade while the Fokker line closed in 1997.

In a touch of irony Bombardier turned down the opportunity to buy the Fokker line, feeling at the time the 100-seat market was saturated by the likes of the A319 and MD-95.

Since then Embraer launched the E-Jet series with sales of more than 1,200.

Currently there are no less than 10 competing basic designs with additional variants in the regional jet market, from the 37-50 seat ERJ145 to the 110-160 seat Bombardier CSeries, The Chinese-built 156-174 seat Comac 919 and up to 160-230 seat Irkut MS-21.

Concerns over reliability and support linger about designs manufactured in Russia, former Soviet bloc countries and China but clearly those concerns have been fading in recent times.

The Antonov An-148 built in the Ukraine has garnered 114 orders, Sukhoi’s Superjet 100 a credible 284, Comac’s AR121 309 and its C919 a thumping 380, while the MS-21 241.

A number of these orders are from leasing companies such as GECAS and western-based airlines.

“The design at most risk of a Boeing/Airbus pricing backlash is possibly the Bombardier CSeries 300.”

The C919 and MS-21 have enormous home markets and benefit from lower production costs.

However the CSeries is an all-new design and thus benefits from lower seat costs and sales will probably lift once positive flight data filters through.

According to CAPA – Centre for Aviation, the CSeries has been a hard sell for Bombardier with sales of 177 over five years. But the manufacturer is confident that it will reach its order target of 300 firm orders from 20 customers before deliveries to customers commence.

CAPA points out that by comparison Airbus has sold 2,250 A320neos and Boeing 1,300 of the 737 MAX.

In fact, it was the emergence of the CSeries that prompted Airbus to move into the neo re-work, de-railing Boeing’s preferred option of an all new design.

“To some extent, Boeing and Airbus have been willing to oblige and cede the lower-capacity end of the market to Bombardier. When the major manufacturers launched their re-worked narrowbody aircraft, neither addressed the lower capacity end of the market space, instead mostly focusing on the much bigger and established market for larger aircraft,” says a CAPA report. Airbus’s smallest version of the neo – the A319 – offers 124-156 seats, while the 737-7 MAX will have a typical configuration of 126 to 148 seats.

Airbus has dropped its 110-140 seat A318, which only won 79 orders, while Boeing is not offering the 108-130 seat 737-600, which only secured 69 sales in a MAX version.

Bombardier expects 6,900 sales of passenger aircraft with 100 to 149 seats globally over the next 20 years and is aiming for 50 per cent of this market, worth US$460 billion.