Bullishagan

And certainly for Emirates President Tim Clark the 777-8 will be *****“an absolute peach”****** capable of carry 330 passengers from Dubai to Lima or Sydney to Rome nonstop.

But that capability has come at a price for Boeing and the airline industry which have suffered long delays and billions in costs for the 787 to reach maturity and trouble free production. Boeing’s Chairman and CEO Jim McNerney has been very candid with Australian Aviation, describing the 787 program as the “bleeding edge of technology” but in the same sentence says Boeing has gained [composite] leadership that will last it 50 years.

“An absolute peach.”
Emirates’ Tim Clark on the 777-8

The first model to take advantage of the lessons and technology is the 787-10, which was formally launched at the Paris Air Show in June. Boeing received commitments for 102 aircraft from five customers across Europe, Asia and North America provide a strong order foundation. Launch commitments for the 787-10 include Air Lease Corporation, with 30, GE Capital Aviation Services with 10, IAG/ British Airways 12, Singapore Airlines 30 and United Airlines 20.

The 787-10 will fly up to 7,000nm (12,964 km) with seating for 300-330 passengers. According to Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and CEO Ray Conner, the 787-10 will be the most-efficient jetliner in history.

“The aircraft’s operating economics are unmatched, said Conner.

“The 787-10 is 25 per cent more efficient than aircraft of its size today and more than 10 percent better than anything being offered by the competition for the future.”
Boeing said that final assembly and flight test of the 787-10 will begin in 2017, with first delivery targeted for 2018.

“Our ongoing investment in the 787 family is well-founded,” said Conner. “With the 787-10, we’ve designed an exceptional aircraft supported by an efficient and integrated production system that can meet increasing demands and create new opportunities for us. Our team and our customers are excited about growing the product line and expanding our presence with this family of aircraft.”

And the bullish sentiment on the 787-10 is matched by the production ramp-up of the 787-8, which is proceeding well at seven aircraft a month with virtually no open items. In May Boeing rolled out of the factory the first 787 to be built at the increased production rate of seven a month. The aircraft is the 114th 787 to be built overall and the 100th 787 to be built at the Everett, factory.

Boeing says the 787 program is on track to achieve a planned 10 per month rate by year-end. The company has three lines at Everett Final Assembly facility, the Everett Temporary Surge Line and Boeing South Carolina.

And on track – or at least on the revised track – is the first 787-9 for Air New Zealand.

The 787 program’s vice-president of aeroplane development, Mark Jenks, who has been with the 787 since its inception and has seen the good, the bad and the ugly of the program, is very upbeat.

**********“There is no question that the 787-9 production has benefited from the hard lessons of the 787-8,”********* said Jenks. “The performance of the 787-9 has just been extremely steady.”

Amazingly, instead of gaining weight it has lost several hundred pounds compared to its final configuration in 2010.

“So, again, given some of the struggles in the past on this program, it’s been really very encouraging.”

In fact the 787-9 schedule reset two years ago has been maintained.

“This is much more in keeping with our tradition of doing airplanes.”
And Jenks adds: “There is very little – [almost none] – travelled work.”
While the 787-8 looks nice the 787-9 looks just right. With a 6.1m stretch the 787-9 can carry 40 more passengers and has a nominal seat count of 290 in three classes. It also has another 555km in range for 15,700km.

“There is no question that 787-9 production has benefited from the hard lessons of the 787-8.”
Mark Jenks – Boeing

Air New Zealand will get the first three examples, which are line numbers 126, 133 and 139. All Nippon Airways will take its first 787-9 after Air New Zealand with line number 146.

Jenks conceded the world’s media is looking at the 787 with “laser-focus” which meant that every minor issues would attract attention. “All we can do is what we are doing – support the 787 fleet. When problems come up, and they will, we are immediately on them.”

But Jenks says the publicity hides the fact that the introduction of the 787-8 – the grounding notwithstanding – had been positive.

“The 777 has been the gold standard in terms of how an all-new airplane operates when it goes into service – and really the 787, with all the new technology, is still very much in that same region in terms of issues that we’re working and dealing with,” he said.

And Jenks supports the bullish passenger feedback on the 787.

“I’ve taken several flights and really can tell the difference. Passengers consistently report that after long flights on the 787 they do feel better.” Jenks says the feedback is fewer headaches, aches and pains and the dehydrated impacts of long flights.

On the 787-10 Jenks says it’s all about efficiency. “The real focus on the dash-10 is efficiency. It’s just a super-efficient airplane. We didn’t add more gross weight to get more range or to keep the range, we kept the same basic gross weight so you take a little bit of a reduction in the range but a huge efficiency improvement.”

And production efficiency is also on the agenda at Boeing. With a peak set at 10 a month, Jenks says Boeing is now looking at how that rate can be lifted.

“We think fundamentally the assembly lines absolutely have the capability to go higher and it’s really about the entire supply chain. So we are actively looking at various things we can do.”
Commenting on the 787-10 launch and product rate increase, New York- based Bernstein Research said “the launch of the 787-10 should also trigger a rate increase to 12 or 14 per month by 2017, which is not unexpected.” It added that “after six difficult years on the 787 program, Boeing appears to finally have it under control. Production rates are increasing ahead of guidance and costs are coming down rapidly. The 787-10 is a straightforward stretch of the 787-9, which should improve program profitability overall.”

At the Paris Air Show, Boeing VP/GM airplane development Scott Fancher outlined the 787 and 777X programs would give Boeing comprehensive coverage of the 250 to 400 seat market a sentiment that holds sway with Bernstein.

“With the 787, [and 777X] Boeing should have a better broad-based wide body position for the long term,” it noted in a post-Paris Air Show report.

On the 787-10 Fancher highlighted the 787-10 would also carry 4 more LD-3s that the 787-9 which itself carries 8 more than the 787-8.

Moving on to the 777X program, Fancher gave the first tantalising glimpses of an aircraft that appears to have captured the imagination of airline executives like no other since the launch of the 787 almost 10 years ago.

“With the 787 (and 777X), Boeing should have a better broad-based widebody position for the long term.”
Scott Fancher – Boeing

The 777X will sport a new wider interior with a gain of 4 inches allowing for more comfortable 10-across seating which is becoming the standard in economy.

Key to the fuel performance says Fancher is a larger, fourth generation composite wing and new advanced GE-90 engine with Laminar Flow Nacelles.

The two models the -8X and -9X will seat 350 and 400 respectively.

While Boeing is coy on details Aviation Week’s US West Coast Editor Guy Norris, who has authored books on the 777 has deeper perspectives.

In a lengthy interview with Australian Aviation Norris shared his thoughts and insights into the program.

“The phenomenal market success of the 777, and particularly the longer range 777-300ER, made the best-selling twinjet the natural starting point for Boeing when it began studying how best to meet the long haul, high-capacity requirements of the future market,” he said.
Boeing forecasts that over the next 20 years the world’s airlines will need 8,740 new widebody aircraft valued at an astonishing $2.4 trillion. Of these Boeing predicts 3,100, or 35 per cent will be to replace the current fleet while the balance – a hefty 5,650 – will be needed to cater for growth.

Norris says Boeing targeted an ambitious step-change in fuel efficiency for the next-generation, akin to the 20 per cent improvement of the 787 over the 767.

“Product development studies therefore focused on radically modified variants of the 777 which included everything from all new centerline engines and updated systems to composite wings and an improved interior.”

These studies began to crystalise through late 2012 and on May 1, 2013, Boeing’s board authorised the company to offer the 777X for sale, effectively taking the first step to a full launch later in the year.

“The provisional family plan is based on two main derivatives, the 777-8X and -9X. The -8X will be sized between the 777-200ER and the 777-300ER, while the -9X will be a stretch beyond the -300 variant, making it the largest twin-engined airliner ever developed, said Norris.

The 777-8X is expected to be around 228ft. in length, some 19ft longer than the -200 and 14ft shorter than the -300. In three-class seating it will accommodate just over 350, which again places it at roughly the mid-point between the passenger capacity of the current models. The -9X, however, is outlined with a stretch of almost 8ft, making it more than 250ft long overall compared to 242ft 4in for the 777-300. The additional fuselage stretch will provide space for some 407 passengers in a Boeing three-class configuration.

“Both versions are aimed at a range of 8,100 nautical miles and yet have lower maximum takeoff weights than the current 777-300ER which has a range of 7,825 nautical miles.”

That begs the question, says Norris, of how is this is possible while still achieving relative fuel burn improvements?

“On a per-seat basis this is designed to be as great as 21 per cent for the -9X over the -300ER and 16 per cent for the -8X over the -200LR.
“The answer, according to Boeing, is a lightweight structure combined with advanced aerodynamics, more efficient systems and the next-generation GE9X turbofan.”

Clearly a major element of the improved efficiency is the all-new, fourth generation composite wing, common to both models. To maximize long range cruise efficiency, Boeing is proposing a large wingspan of up to 233ft, compared to 212ft 4in for the current long range models and 200ft for the baseline versions.

“Greater span means increased aspect ratio and better cruise performance. But a wider span can also cause issues on the ground, particularly at some of the regional airports that some 777 operators are traditionally flying to from their major hubs,” cautions Norris.

To ensure compatibility with existing 777-size gates, Boeing is studying a wing-fold, which would enable the outer 11ft of each wing to be raised for ground operations. The fold would be electro-hydraulically-actuated and incur a weight penalty of around only 800lb, versus a hydro-mechanical design proposed in the 1990s to enable 777s to fit in DC-10 sized gates.

“This earlier design weighed in at more than 3,000lb.”

The folded section would be extended while taxiing for takeoff and folded up after landing. If the design option of the folding tip is selected, Boeing plans to certify the 777X as safe to operate with the tip in the folded-up position as a fail-safe fall-back.

Norris says that all this effort is considered worthwhile by Boeing because by increasing span to more than 230ft, the -8/9X wing will boost lift/drag ratio by a massive 12 per cent.

“Aerodynamically and structurally, the wing design will borrow heavily from the 787’s pioneering composite design. Wing area is expected to be almost 467m sq compared to 436.8m sq for the current 777-300ER.”

“Boeing plans to assemble the first 777-9 in 2017 and conduct flight tests in 2018.”

Other design features will include the adoption of 787-like avionics and flightdeck layout, as well as enhancements to the fly-by-wire flight control system and vertical gust suppression. The aircraft is also expected to feature extended length main landing gear to provide additional ground clearance for the extended fuselage.
The fuselage, while continuing to be made from aluminum, will likely be manufactured from a third-generation advanced aluminum-lithium alloy.

“This is both lighter than current materials and has a smoother surface finish with reduced drag, Norris says.

Inside the cabin, reshaped fuselage frames will open up extra space to allow a more-comfortable 10-abreast seating in economy class. The frames, while shallower, will be widened to maintain strength and will add up about 10cm (4in) to the cabin width.

Assuming the program is launched as expected by the end of 2013, Boeing plans to assemble the first 777-9X in 2017 and conduct flight tests in 2018. Entry-into-service is scheduled for mid-2019, with entry-into-service of the -8X following in the 2021-2022 timeframe.

The major impact on the 777X improved fuel efficiency comes from General Electric’s GE9X engine which was selected by Boeing as the exclusive powerplant over competing proposals from Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce in March 2013.

“The engine builds on the architectural and technical experience of the GE90 and GEnx but is otherwise all-new with a purpose designed low-pressure system, much wider use of composites and a new core,” says Norris. “All of this was required to meet Boeing’s requirement for a 10 per cent fuel burn improvement over the GE90-115B.”

GE plans to run a series of technology demonstration efforts and development tests to support FAR33 engine certification in 2018. Development work began in earnest in mid-2013 when tests of a 90 per cent scale GE9X high pressure compressor development rig got underway at the company’s test facility in Italy.

“The 11-stage unit was the forerunner for the full-scale, 27:1 pressure ratio compressor which will form the heart of the new engine and incorporates a fourth generation powdered-metal alloy. The HP compressor is fundamental to overall thermodynamic efficiency and the performance level of the gas turbine, and in the case of the GE9X will contribute a 2 per cent improvement to the overall engine fuel burn.”

Norris says the advanced ‘E3’ (Energy Efficient Engine) 19:1 compressor developed with NASA was key to the success of the original GE90, while the evolved HP compressor of the GEnx has a pressure ratio of 23:1.

“Overall pressure ratio for the entire GE9X is similarly targeted at an extremely ambitious 61:1 compared to 50:1 for the GEnx and 40:1 for the GE90.”

As well as improved aerodynamics in the compressor and turbine, the GE9X will leverage advances in materials such as the next-generation powder metal alloys used in the compressor and ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in the hot section to help bridge the gap between the GEnx and Boeing’s performance goal for the 777X.

“CMCs can operate at temperatures up to 2,400F, higher than any advanced alloy and because they do not require cooling using bleed air taken from other parts of the engine cycle, help contribute to improving overall efficiency and therefore reducing fuel burn, said Norris.

GE has spent the last two decades developing next-generation CMCs which are not only tough, but also amenable to mass production. CMCs are made from silicon carbide matrix toughened with coated fibers made from the same material. The material is also light, weighing one-third the weight of nickel super-alloys, but extremely durable and is used in CFM’s LEAP engine. In the GE9X the material will be used in the combustor and turbine.

Norris points out that with a bypass ratio of 12:1, the GE9X will have a huge fan stage measuring 132-inch in diameter, enclosed in a composite fan case. The highly swept, fourth-generation fan blades, numbering just 16 compared to 22 on the GE90, will be thinner than previous composite units and have greater propulsive efficiency. GE will run the first full version of the new GE9X core in 2015, the same year as it makes the final ‘Toll Gate 6’ decision on freezing the design. The first engine will go to test in the 2016 timeframe with flight tests on GE’s 747-400 flying testbed in 2017 and certification the following year.

And the engine is the focus of Emirates’ President Tim Clark. “The engine is the big ask – it’s the most important aspect of this program,” he said. “I have spoken to David Joyce [President and CEO of GE] and he assures me they can do it.

“And I have also spoken to Ray Connor and Jim McNerney and emphasised the importance of the engine.”
Clark agrees that the GE9X is mostly scalable technologies that have been proven.
He is also comfortable with the timeline of the engine development and that fact that GE has grown the engine thrust to 103K to 104K of thrust. In fact insiders tell Australian Aviation that 110k is achievable.

********“This [777X] is exciting. It really is. If they can achieve everything that they say they can it will be a dream machine. ************

“More efficient, faster and lighter than the -300ER,” Clark waxed. “And it ticks all the boxes with passengers.” Emirates has been shown computer generated interior views that Clark says “look stunning.” The 777X will have 20 per cent larger windows and combined with the wider cabin really make the 10-abreast cabin really work says Clark.

“This 777X is exciting. It really is. If they can achieve everything they say they can, it will be a dream machine.
Emirates’ Tim Clark

Boeing is also looking at a lower pressurisation altitude. The larger windows and the pressurisation changes are possible because Boeing will use the latest 3rd-generation aluminum-lithium technology skin for the fuselage, which as about 17 per cent higher specific strength than that used on the current 777.

While the difference now between the aluminum alloys and composite for the fuselage is not great, according to Clark the wing is a different matter.

“The 787 wing has outperformed Boeing’s predications. I am not an aerodynamic engineer, but a composite wing shows significant gains – they can make it thinner.” According to Clark all 777 operators are on board the new models and even ones who are not.

“I can see non-777 operators buying it as well.”

While enthusiastic with the 777-9X, which will carry 410 in an Emirates three-class configuration, Clark is bullish on the potential of the 777-8X.

“I can fly that for 18 hours with 330 passengers. There will not be a city of the planet – aside from mid-Pacific – we can’t reach,” said Clark. The 777-8X will be capable of Dubai to Auckland.

“This [777-8X] will be poetry in motion…it will have enormous versatility.”

And to go with those longer flights Emirates has been examining more bars and standing areas for the 777X series.
While not placing an order for Qantas, Clark said the 777-8X would be perfect for Qantas.

“This machine will do Rome to Sydney or Perth to London.”

Emirates is in the final stages of evaluation of the 777-9X / 8X and Clark will be briefed at the end of the month. “There are many airlines watching our evaluation,” he said.

“If we tick it off, I can’t see why Boeing will not launch soon with orders for at least 200 and the program would generate sales of about 2000.”

Aviation watchers suggest the Dubai Air Show is a good bet.