Airbus has released an updated Global Market Forecast predicting a need for 28,200 commercial aircraft worth nearly US$4 trillion over the next 20 years.
The prediction is a slight upward revision from last year, when Airbus predicted a need for 27,800 aircraft over the next two decades. The forecast includes passenger and freighter aircraft of 100 seats or more, with passenger jets accounting for the vast majority of demand.
Airbus says passenger traffic demand will increase at an average annual rate of 4.7 per cent and that by 2031 the world’s passenger fleet will have expanded by 110 per cent, from 15,550 aircraft today to more than 32,550. The global freighter fleet is tabbed to increase from 1600 to 3000 aircraft over the same period.
Airbus said demand would be driven by emerging economies, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 35 per cent of new aircraft orders.
The forecast says 1,700 jumbo jets with more than 400 seats will be delivered over the next 20 years, slightly fewer than Airbus predicted last year. Twin-aisle aircraft will account for 6,970 new deliveries and single-aisle aircraft for 19,500, with 30 per cent of those going to low cost carriers.