Contrails

The response last month to The Western Australian state aviation strategy issues paper suggestion that Perth Airport’s passenger growth could quadruple over the next 17 years to 40 million passengers a year – more than double that estimated by the airport owners — is perplexing at best and seems to ignore even modest growth projections.

The issues paper’s growth figure is simply the historic growth figure of 7.70 per cent — less than the growth over the past two financial years of 9.2 per cent and less than the current year.

The airport’s position that “the past is not a good indicator of the future and there are very good structural reasons why the expected the annual growth rate will slow materially” has airline executives worried because it seems to continue a trend of focus on lower-end projections for planning.

The paper warns that Perth Airport’s previous two five-year master plans have been wide of the mark on forecasting.

While true that a number of major resource projects are in building phase, there are even more in the pipeline, claim airline executives.

But more perplexing is Perth Airport’s claim that outbound international traffic growth rate for Western Australians, above the national average, also will also slow materially over the next few years.

It states that “the ratio of outbound trips per resident has dramatically increased as a result of LCCs and there is a limit to the number of outbound trips from residents that can occur”.

Contrails canvassed 20 friends around a BBQ recently and to a person they all suggested they would be travelling more, not less.

It would appear that in Perth Airport’s world, the global laws of commercial aviation don’t apply to Western Australians — or to any Australians, for that matter.

It says over the next 17 years passenger growth will be at 3.5 per cent a year whereas Boeing says it will be 5.50 per cent with cargo increasing by 6.1 per cent for Oceania.
Boeing says also that fleets will grow at 4.1 per cent a year.

But is can be reasonably expected that WA will out-perform those numbers significantly because of its immense mineral wealth.

Boeing forecasts China’s passenger growth to bound along at 7.6 per cent a year for next 20 years and a significant proportion of the resources to fuel that growth come from WA.

In fact, a better guide of the traffic growth for WA is South-East Asia, forecast to be 6.60 per cent a year rather than Oceania. Boeing says that South-East Asia’s fleet will grow by 5.6 per cent.

Aside from the resources boom, WA has a huge tourism potential yet to be tapped and has become a haven for wealthy retirees from across Australia and the world.

In mid-May Fortescue Metals Group founder and billionaire Andrew Forrest told The West Australian that WA should follow California’s example by using the resources boom to build a world-class innovation hub similar to Silicon Valley.

Speaking to thewest.com.au at a seminar by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, Mr Forrest said he agreed in principle with an idea touted by UWA vice chancellor Paul Johnson that companies should cooperate to create a non-Government innovation fund.

According to Mr Johnson, Perth could rival technology research giants California and New York by 2050 if resources companies paid one per cent of pre-tax profits into a perpetual fund.

Perth already is a centre of excellence for the resource industry with FIFO workers and engineers not only commuting to mine sites in WA but across the globe. A vibrant airport that’s ahead of the game is a key to a successful economy.

However, Perth has the most overcrowded, dysfunctional airport in the country and if current growth continues, construction now under way on a new terminal and expansion to others will not be enough.

During the working week, Perth Airport is at runway capacity for far too many hours and this is an impediment to growth.

That situation must end sooner than later. WA and Australia deserves better – far better.