Neo narrowbodies

Boeing has publicly said that it believes it could have an all-new aircraft to market before 2020, but Airbus doubts this. Airbus COO Customers, John Leahy, told media on April 4 that he believes an all-new design could only offer single figure improvements in fuel burn over a Neo, but would cost more than $10 billion to develop.

Blue No Morethe Competition

Leahy said Airbus had studied what it would take to do an all-new design from a clean-sheet approach. He said with technology improvements in airframe materials and aerodynamics, Airbus believed that, at best, a 3. 5 per cent improvement in fuel burn could be made over those forecast for the A320neo.

“If our competitor decides to do a clean sheet of paper airplane, he’s going to get a wider fuselage than a 737 with wider seats – we’d probably call it an A320,” Leahy said. “He’s going to have something that has fly-by-wire – well, that’s called an A320. He’s going to have something that’s integrated with the rest of his widebody family – well, that’s called an A320. And he’ll have to spend about 10 to 12 billion US dollars to do it, and he’ll have an airframe that’s maybe 3. 5 per cent better than an A320. . . if he gets everything right. ” Airbus itself has moved away from its previous predictions about when it thought it could do an all-new aircraft, from 2025 out to beyond 2030, although this may partly be rationalisation for doing the Neo.

The company says it doesn’t believe the engine technology required, such as an open rotor or unducted geared fan, with a high percentage of lightweight ceramics needed to provide the 25 per cent plus improveimagement in fuel economy required to justify an all-new aircraft, will be available before 2030-2035. Leahy said that new technology to justify an all-new aircraft “won’t come from us, and it isn’t coming from Boeing.

It’s engine technology. That’s one of the reasons why we decided to do a Neo. ” Other competitors for the Neo include Bombardier’s CSeries, specifically the up-to 145-seat CS300, and China’s Comac C919, neither of which have logged anywhere near as many orders as the Neo despite, in the case of the CSeries especially, being available for several years now. To date, the C919 has logged just 45 firm orders, 40 of which are from Chinese carriers, with the other five going to lessor GECAS. The C919, although bigger than the CSeries at up to 200 seats, is expected to feature mainly in the (not inconsequential) Chinese and aligned states’ markets, and may be hampered by any delays in the development of its CFM Leap-X engine.

The CSeries has also had a slow start with just 90 firm orders taken, 33 of which are for the 110-seat CS100, with Lufthansa ordering 30 and lessor LCI just three. LCI has also ordered 17 CS300s, while US carrier Republic, which flies regional services on behalf of major US domestic airlines, has ordered 40 plus 40 options to replace A319s with its Frontier Airlines subsidiary.

“That one gets my attention,” Leahy said at Toulouse in April.

By comparison, Airbus is holding 330 orders and announced MoUs for the Neo to date, and Leahy says he is “quite confident that by the Paris Airshow [in June], we’ll have 500 orders. ” The biggest deal to date is for 150 Neos from Indian carrier IndiGo, while lessor ILFC has ordered 100, Virgin America and Lufthansa 30 each, and Brazil’s TAM 22. (Curiously, Airbus isn’t yet distinguishing between Neo and standard A320 Family orders on its monthly sales and delivery tally. ) US think tank AirInsight rates the CSeries highly, saying the business case “is sound. ” The CS300 offers a 20 per cent lower fuel burn than the current 737-700 and A319 offerings. This means, going off Airbus’s numbers, it should still have a near double-figure fuel burn advantage over the A319neo. Further, it will be available in 2014, some two years earlier than its Neo equivalent. Perhaps this is why Airbus brought forward its entry into service of the A319neo by 12 months to late 2016, effectively leapfrogging the previously second-in-line A321neo which will now not be available until early 2017.

AirInsight says, “Economically, the CSeries is head and shoulders ahead of existing competitors, and maintains a solid lead over the potential forthcoming A319neo, as additional savings result from high technology materials, advanced systems, and updated technologies maintain a significant advantage. Despite potential savings for existing Airbus operators through cockpit commonality and elimination of the need for transition costs of introducing a new aircraft type, the economics of the CSeries are compelling enough to overcome these factors. ” Further, AirInsight says if Bombardier could further stretch the CS300 by three metres to a nominal 150-seat two class or 165-seat single class ‘CS500’, these same advantages would transfer against the A320neo.

But AirInsight also sees risk for the CSeries, particularly in Bombardier’s ability to industrialise the program, to oversee and control its global supply chain, to ramp up production, to match often loss-leading prices offered by the much larger Airbus and Boeing, and to meet the promised entry into service timings and to absorb the financial strain associated with any schedule slips.

An offering is also expected from Embraer at some stage towards the latter end of the decade, and may be in the form of a further stretch of the E-190 or an all-newsix abreast design, although recent media reports say the Brazilian manufacturer is waiting to see how Boeing responds to the Neo before it makes its move.

The Path To Neo

The path to Neo won’t be a sudden be-all and end-all offering, with Airbus instead planning incremental steps between now and 2015 in an effort to reduce risk and to bring efficiencies to market sooner.

The first step along that path is expected to start later this year with the introduction of a modified wing box and other wing enhancements. These enhancements are designed to provide a common wing for when the first sharklet (winglet) equipped A320s start rolling off the line in late 2012, and will allow for a retrofit of the sharklets at a later date if an airline so chooses. A319s and A321s will be available with sharklets from 2013.

The sharklets will add a three to four per cent improvement to the A320 Family’s fuel burn, and will also improve takeoff performance at marginal airfields. Interestingly, a chart Leahy showed at the Toulouse briefing cited a 1. 7 tonne load improvement from Chicago Midway Airport, a key Southwest Airlines hub, and a 2. 8 tonne load improvement from Canberra.

A planned further improvement is the optional Spaceflex cabin enhancement for those operators who mainly fly short to medium haul routes. With this option, a portion of the A320’s rear galley is sacrificed and the remaining space is cleverly repackaged. This not only provides an additional three seats on the port side, but also two lavatories which, through a clever lockable wall, can be opened into a single lavatory for disabled passengers.

Leahy says he believes this is the first time a disabled lavatory has been offered on a single aisle airliner. A Spaceflex mockup received rave reviews from airlines at the recent Aircraft Interiors Expo in Hamburg, and Airbus hopes to have this option available from 2013.

Another risk reduction process Airbus is implementing is a production ramp up to 40 aircraft per month from the current 36, with 22 A320 Family aircraft to be produced at Hamburg, 16 at Toulouse, and two per month at Tianjin in China. Not only does this help Airbus to reduce the A320’s significant backlog, but it also builds capacity and flexibility into the A320 production lines, which will be needed to support a rapid ramp up once Neo production commences.

Leahy also said Airbus was studying options to go to Rate 42 or even Rate 44 if required.

Further, Airbus’s executive vice president programs, Tom Williams, said Airbus has learned lessons from its A380 and A350 development programs. He said the Neo’s development and production would see no change to the current industrial system, the mature supplier base will be maintained, and main gate reviews have been built into the entire development process and production ramp up period.

Changes to the existing aircraft are minimal.

They include the modified wing box and wing structure to accommodate the sharklets and the unique bending yaw and torque they produce, and a redesign of the outboard wing ribs onto which the sharklets will attach. Other changes include the new engine pylons and nacelles, different cockpit software loads for the new engines and sharklets, and a regauging of other areas of the structure to accommodate higher maximum takeoff weights and a +3 per cent fatigue load. The Neo will retain a common type certificate as the current A320, and will also utilise common spares and support channels.

Airbus plans to build the Neo alongside the current A320 for as long as there is demand for the old model, and the Hamburg production line theoretically should see standard A320s and Neos flowing down the same line simultaneously.

John Leahy says there is a potential market for up to 12,000 new single aisle airliners by 2030. “We’ll get half that, but if Boeing doesn’t do something, we’ll get more than half that. They can’t just stay there in denial. ” And despite there being a potentially 600+ aircraft 757 replacement market for the A321neo which Airbus says can perform about 95 per cent of the 757’s missions – falling short in maximum range – the obvious threat posed by the CSeries means the A319neo will be the second offering and we won’t see an A321neo until 2017. Development of the A321neo is also expected to take a little longer than its smaller brethren, due to its different wing which will require additional engineering work.