Debrief – What now of Port Macquarie?

They departed and small operators proliferated in an at times fragmented manner. New England, North Coast, Air Eastland, Oxley et al – now but names- appeared. Small twin pistons were used but two, Air Eastland and Oxley, added Metros. In 1975 East Coast (born out of New England Airways and North Coast and in whom EWA bought a stake), using new Titans linked all 11 former F27 ports with Newcastle and Brisbane, ( and quickly 23 with Sydney) later becoming Eastern Australia, Qantas’ largest Dash 8 operator. Impulse ( 1994-2001) almost replicated ECA’s network with up 10 return Beech 1900D flights daily Newcastle/Brisbane – 4 direct, Newcastle/Brisbane fares underpinning these operations.

Qantas bought Impulse, converted it to Jetstar, and dumped turboprops, Jetstar and non stop Dash 8s joined by Virgin Blue swamped Newcastle/Brisbane, now lifting over 10,000 weekly, and intermediate ports had to stand alone – most didn’t. Brindabella moved onto Port Mac/Brisbane via Coffs ( mainly J41s) and Brisbane/Tamworth direct.

Brindabella cite low patronage and high landing fees for quitting Port Mac. Locals blame high fares. This is the vicious circle small regionals end up in. From their own or adjacent ports Qantas, Virgin or Jetstar fight it out with seat costs no small cabin can match. Some airports have been upgraded to take jets up to heavy A320s but airport fees are head taxes, not weight based, seeing small regionals effectively paying for costly capability their aircraft don’t need.

The “dear” fare perception is somewhat unfair. Rail or bus are far cheaper but not business timed and the real cost of driving is way over Brindabella’s lowest fare. It was ever so. ECA’s 1978 fare Port Mac/ Brisbane was $60, the same as TAA and A/ANA Sydney/Brisbane. Brindabella’s fares are well above lowest LCC fares but many intercapital passengers pay far more once specials have gone. Even Port Mac/Sydney today ranges from $79 to $445 single, the latter above Brindabella’s highest Brisbane fare. Based on the CPI 450% increase since 1978 Brindabella’s base fare is only 360% of ECA’s but Port Mac’s 70c 1978 landing fee is now $18.15 – up 25.9 times, comprising just 1.16 % of ECA’s fare, but 8.4 % of Brindabella’s , yet the 1978 standard airport adequately served J41s .

The intense competition at Coffs and Port affect nearby Grafton and Taree, linked by Rex with Sydney on a combined business timed pattern. Each port loads around 20,000 pa, well under previous peak loads likely not far above break even, and both face projected population falls to 2030. Politicians on both sides refused to support funding a much needed resheet at Taree and Lyne Independant Rob Oakeshot electioneered promises to push this – with no success. Council funded essential repairs but Mr Oakeshot might help see if any hope of a Port Mac/Brisbane business aimed service exists and debate airport charges. Airport owners could lower fees – a common bait to get services back or adopt head taxes and weight based landing fees which further aid smaller aircraft. But much airport revenue is predicated on getting as many people through the terminal, shops and car parks as possible – favouring LCC jets – and head taxes. Changing fee bases to reflect what the aircraft needs plus a passenger handling component might be a more equitable way to go.

Dropping the Coffs/Port Mac extension of the Brisbane/Coffs service, the lower loading stage, has many precedents. From Viscounts through to early 737s many ports were so linked. Typical were Hobart/Melbourne via Launceston, Brisbane/Mackay via Rocky, Cairns via Townsville, and everywhere to Darwin was via an intermediate port. All were due excess capacity but low loads on the second leg lowered overall load factors, and as jets grew traffic and populations soared these split into separate flights. Many regionals did the same or triangulated flights ( some still do). Provided Coffs Harbour has the numbers dropping the Port Mac extension should increase viability, moreso if as advised Metros replace J41s.

What then for Port Mac? Population projections show amazing but slowing 35% growth to 102,500 by 2030. A Brisbane based single business timed daily flight, perhaps by Metro, overnighting Port Macquarie, and with about 22/24 passengers daily might be viable. Rex has passenger configured Metros at Brisbane which Pel Air operate on Emerald mine charters. This is a low hour non daily operation and scheduling them between Port Mac am/pm RPT flights should be possible – AOC paperwork permitting. Encumbent Brindella could do the same with another Brisbane based Metro but with little hope of other work outside hotly contested FIFO charters only around 1,000 hrs pa would result. Failing that just Coffs and Tamworth of the eleven original ports will still have Brisbane flights, from 1 January, Kempsey’s future is under public revue and pilots question former jet hub Casino’s use for drag racing.847