Boeing has issued its latest Current Market Outlook, which anticipates that 30,900 new aircraft will be ordered over the next 20 years, an increase of 6.5 per cent from its forecast last year, representing robust growth in passenger numbers.
“The world market is doing much better than last year, but there are still challenges,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Looking at 2010, we see a world economy that continues to recover. We expect the world economy to grow above the long term trend this year. As a result, both passenger and cargo travel will grow this year. Airline revenue and yields are up, but fuel prices remain volatile.”
In its forecast, Boeing predicts that long term passenger growth will average 5.3 per cent per annum up to 2029 which, along with a wave of fleet replacement in the 2015-2017 timeframe, will result in demand for 30,900 new aircraft valued at over US$3.6 trillion (A$4 trillion). Of those new aircraft, 69 per cent are expected to be narrowbody aircraft, while 23 per cent will be for twin aisle widebody aircraft. Large aircraft, such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747-8 are expected to represent only two per cent of the market (or 720 units), most of which will be delivered to Asian and Middle East carriers.
As in previous years’ forecasts, the Asia Pacific region is expected to drive the market for new aircraft, with the region to account for 43 per cent of global passenger traffic. As such, airlines from the Asia Pacific region are expected to order 10,320 new aircraft valued at more than US$1.3 trillion (A$1.5 trillion), with the total fleet to nearly triple to 12,200 by 2029. Of the new aircraft, 64 per cent will be narrowbody aircraft, with 28 per cent twin aisle aircraft.
Growth in freight traffic is also expected to be resilient, averaging 5.9 per cent each year, requiring 2490 aircraft, of which 740 are expected to be new build aircraft. Most of the new freighter aircraft are expected to be standard freighters of less than 45 tonnes and will account for 42 per cent of the market, followed by large freighters at 31 per cent, with the remainder comprised of medium size freighters. Most new build freighters are expected to be in the large category, with demand for 520 new aircraft, compared to 210 for medium freighters and only 10 smaller freighters.