Forecast International has released a new report which claims that production of business jets will fall during 2010-2011, and then rise again in 2012.
The company notes that the strong growth experienced up to 2008 drew to a grinding halt at the end of that year, forcing manufacturers to cut production. As a result, the company has forecast that business jet production this year will reach 825 units, falling to 738 units in 2010 and 716 in 2011.
However, signs of a recovery are showing as aircraft utilisation is once again increasing, the used market has stabilised, and cancellation rates have subsided. As such, the company says that production will rise in 2012, although it did not publicly release a figure of how many units are expected to be produced in that year.
Some difficulties in the market still need to be overcome. Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski said, “Market saturation remains a problem, especially in the North American market, where large numbers of relatively new business jets reside in operators’ fleets. In addition, buyer hesitation is exacerbated by concerns over fuel and insurance costs and governmental regulations.”
During the 2009-2018 time period, the Forecast International projections indicate that the top three manufacturers in terms of unit production will be Cessna, Embraer, and Bombardier. Measured in monetary value of production, Gulfstream will take the top spot, followed by Bombardier and Dassault.
Read our overview of the Australian business aviation industry in the December issue of Australian Aviation.