Debrief

Meanwhile, Jetstar A321s With 220 Seats Would Be Ideal Replacements for Any Qantas 767 Routes Handed-off to Jetstar, Especially at Movement Constrained Sydney.

Overall the Qantas Group Single Aisle Orders Protects Its Overall Capacity Share (and Allows for Jetstar Asia Expansion) in the Face of Tiger, but the Two Will Now Leave Virgin Blue, Even With 17 E-jets and 12 737s Coming, With a Reduced Share. But a Virgin Blue Catch-up Order May Not Eventuate Until Its Future Ownership is Set in Concrete.

If Virgin Blue Matches the Others, Rapidly Increasing Australian Airline Fleets Will Bring to a Head Our Major Choke Point – Sydney Airport’s Ridiculous 80 Movements an Hour Cap.

Sydney Limits

Before Its Election Victory the Labor Party Pledged to Sell the Badgerys Creek Sydney Second Airport Site – So Where Now for Sydney Basin Airport Capacity Growth? The Holsworthy Option Has Long Gone, and There Are Many Habitation Encroachments and Climb Gradient Limits Surrounding an Extended Richmond That Would Likely Rule It Out if (When?) the Raaf Eventually Moves to Amberley. But Shifting the Regionals to Bankstown Would Fly in the Face of Regional Access Guarantees at Ksa and an Extended Bankstown Would Also Have Some Gradient Limits.

Thus the New Government Has Only Two Options – Raise the Sydney Airport Movements Cap (Which Already Restricts Peak Hour Movements) or Build a Third Parallel Runway – the Whispered, but Unlikely ‘kyeemagh Solution’ to the West – if Lateral Runway Spacing Permits Useful Capacity. But That Would Bring Far Louder Protests Than Raising the Cap or Evicting Regionals.

Hard Decisions Accumulated by Years of Neglect of Aviation’s ‘too Hard Basket’ Will Soon Have to Be Addressed.

Round 1: Port Mac 1 V Kempsey 0

Not Surprisingly Kempsey Failed in Its Bid to Replace Port Macquarie Airport and Thus Snare Virgin Blue’s E-170s.

Perhaps Council, Previously Having Had Bitter Debates About the Little Used Airport, Will Now Face Inevitable Reality. Kempsey, Whatever Its Past, is in Reality Another Town Too Close to a Far Better Served Airport.

That Reality Also Still Exists Elsewhere and Some Further Rationalisation Might Occur.

And Given How the Nsw Government Handling of Future Route Licences Seems to Be Proceeding, Future Regional Service Allocation in Nsw Might Not Be All Smooth Sailing.

Hervey Bay Ils

With the Flight Training Group Setting Up Its New Queensland School at Nearby Maryborough, Hervey Bay Airport Will Have an Instrument Landing System (Ils) Installed Despite Better Weather and Far Less Traffic Than the Gold Coast or Maroochydore.

In Australia Few Privately Funded Navaids Exist Outside Mine Ports. Armidale Installed a Dme to Reduce Diversions to Tamworth Caused by Low Cloud Incidence, but Council Has Only Ever Received Offsetting Revenue Indirectly via Training Aircraft.

Tamworth Itself, With Near Ideal Flying Weather, Has an Ils Which Was Installed for the Bae Systems Flying School There. It Ensures Almost No Diversions and Provides an Alternate for Coastal Cities, as Well as a Steady Revenue Stream From Ils Approaches.

Apart From Flight Training Queensland, Hervey Bay’s Ils Can Expect to Attract Much Ifr Airwork, Including by Brisbane Based Aircraft Up to Brasilia/convair 580 (and E-jet?) Size, Which is Currently Conducted at Maroochydore, Plus Maroochydore Based Singapore Airlines Learjet 45s Which Presently Undertake Ils Work at Distant Tamworth. Their Daily Training Runs to Rocky Track Past Hervey Bay.

And Getting a Practice Ils at Brisbane Will Become Harder Once It Reduces to a Single Runway Airport in Early ’08 While the Parallel Runway is Built. Consequently the Dog Leg From Maroochy or Kingaroy Et Al via Oakey or Amberley for an Ils Could Be Avoided by Using Hervey Bay, Incurring Only a Slight Distance Penalty.

Hervey Bay May Be on a Winner With an Ils, Which Won’t Hurt the Reliability of Rpt and Medevac Flights, and Also Provide Another Bad Weather Bolt Hole for Aircraft Up to A320 Size.