Newsdesk – Commercial Aviation

Boeing Reduces Forecast:

For the second time in succession, Boeing has downgraded its estimates of air traffic growth and new airliner requirements over the next 20 years in its latest Current Market Outlook report. Boeing now expects airline passenger traffic to grow by an average 5.2% per annum until 2013, slightly below the 5.4% predicted last year. The revision comes as a result of slower than expected recoveries in Europe and Japan. The intra Asia and North American markets are expected to account for nearly half the total growth between them, followed by the trans Pacific (13.3% of total growth), intra Europe (11.2%), North Atlantic (9.8%), Asia-Europe (8.8%), North-Latin America (3.8%). Europe-Latin America (2.5%), intra Latin America (2.1%) and Europe-Africa (1.9%) routes. Despite its reduced predictions, The climax of a four year development programme was reached on April 29 when the US FAA formally awarded certification to the Pratt & Whitney PW4084, one of three engine options on the Boeing 777. During the testing phase of the programme development PW4084s accumulated more than 2500 running hours, including 76 hours and 23 test flights installed onboard a 7 4 7 testbed (this aircraft was in fact the first 747 built, and was pictured on p7 of our March ’94 issue). PW4084s powered the first 777 on its first flight in early June. The PW4084 is the largest and most powerful member of the PW4000 family, which recently surpassed 10 million hours of service. In service aboard Airbus A300s and A310s, Boeing 767s and 747s and the McDonnell Douglas MD-11, it will soon also be certificated as the PW4068 for the A330. Since the original PW4000s first flight in June 1987 (aboard a PanAm A310) the PW4000 has flown 3.2 billion kilometres, the equivalent to ten return trips to the sun. (Pratt & Whitney) Boeing expects this level of growth to require 9300 new airliners over the next 20 years plus a further 4700 to replace older and noisier aircraft which do not meet Stage 3 noise requirements. Boeing also predicts that increased competition and lower yields will force airlines to improve efficiency and productivity. Load factors will rise as capacity reduces and airlines will mal<e greater use of yield management systems to move lower yield traffic to off peak times, thus selling seats which might otherwise be empty.

Ge90 Test Hiccup:

General Electric’s new GE90 turbofan (one ofthe three engine options for the Boeing 777) has suffered a low pressurecompressor blade failure on its 19thand final scheduled test flight for 1994under the wing of a Boeing 747 (refercentrespread May issue). The failure was uncontained, but although it damaged other blades it had no effect on other parts of the engine. GE says this and other problems which have arisen in recent months will not effect the engine’s scheduled certification in November this year.

Concorde Us Ban?:

Concorde could be banned from flying tothe USA from next January due to thelack of an operational traffic alert andcollision avoidance system (TCAS). US regulations require the fitting of TCAS to all airliners by January 1995, and although Concorde has had such systems fitted, problems with them has forced their removal. The problems stem from the aircraft’s speed and the very high skin temperatures (120°C) this generates. In combination with low outside air temperatures, this has caused cracking of the domes which protect the TCAS aerials, resulting in unserviceability. British Airways and Air France have requested a Concorde exemption from the TCAS rule until March next year, but this has been refused by the US Federal Aviation Administration. Meanwhile, the TCAS’s manufacturer, Rockwell Collins, has turned to Space Shuttle technology in an attempt to find a material for the aerial covers which can withstand the large variations in temperatures