Runway incidents on the rise in Australia, says expert

According to Wild, raw occurrence numbers “can be misleading” as a higher risk of incidents can be expected as flight numbers rise; thus, he also analysed occurrence rates per million flight hours for domestic and for all commercial air transport.

“For domestic aviation, analysis of the annual data from 2003 to 2025 shows a significant increasing underlying trend in both the number and rate of taxiing collisions or near-collisions,” he wrote in The Conversation.

“Across the period, the number increased on average by about one additional occurrence every three years. The significant increase in the rate indicates this trend cannot simply be explained by growth in aviation activity.

“Across all commercial air transport, taxiing collisions or near-collisions have also increased significantly in number, but not in rate. This suggests increased aviation activity explains at least part of the rise.

“Runway incursions show the clearest commercial air transport trend, with significant increases in both their number and rate per million flight hours. Across the period, the number increased on average by about three additional runway incursions every two years.”

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Sydney Airport has come under the spotlight in recent weeks due to four “near-misses” on its runways: one between a QantasLink and Qantas aircraft and one in August between a Jetstar A320 and Qatar 777, both of which are classed as serious incidents; one between Virgin and Qantas 737s, classed as an incident; and one between two Qantas planes, yet to be classified.

“Four occurrences at one airport in less than a month understandably attract attention. But a cluster does not by itself demonstrate that Sydney Airport has suddenly become unsafe,” said Wild.

“The occurrences were operationally different, and the Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigations will determine how each developed and why the available safety barriers did not prevent the conflicts from arising.”

According to Wild, what matters is “not whether more occurrences are being reported, but whether they are becoming more frequent relative to aviation activity and whether their severity is changing”.

“For runway incursions involving commercial air transport, the Australian data show a statistically significant increase in both occurrence numbers and the rate per million flight hours. The same is true for domestic taxiing collisions and near-collisions,” he said.

“That does not establish the cause of the recent Sydney events. It does, however, suggest that the longer-term increase in runway incursions and taxiing collisions and near-collisions warrants attention.”

Air traffic control staffing shortages at Airservices Australia have been raised as a potential factor in the incidents.