Comment: Looking Beyond Our New Loyal Wingman

By leveraging artificial intelligence, the drones are expected to fly independently or in support of manned aircraft while maintaining a safe distance between other jets. 

In light of the project’s success thus far, the Commonwealth government doubled its order from three platforms to six. 

However, according to Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Canberra must not rest on its laurels, but instead look beyond the Loyal Wingman program and begin planning for a successor. 

“With the assembly facility in Queensland, the Loyal Wingman project creates the potential for a flourishing aerospace industry that supports not only the manufacture of the aircraft itself, but also the rapid development of new types of air combat capabilities,” he writes. 

Davis points to the urgency surrounding the debate over the delivery of nuclear-powered submarines, adding that Australia similarly can’t afford to “stand still on long-range deterrence and strike”. 

“An alternative path for the ADF to project power needs to be considered. Developing and evolving a second-generation Loyal Wingman is a logical next step,” he continues. 

Davis adds that greater mass must be matched by greater range and performance, flagging that the Loyal Wingman’s range of 3,700km would translate to an unrefuelled combat radius of approximately 1,200km. 

He claims the platform’s range should be extended in response to extensions of China’s anti-access and area-denial envelope. 

“Ideally, this challenge would be eased via host-nation support or through airborne refuelling, but it’s possible that support from countries in the region won’t be forthcoming in a crisis, particularly if they’re pressured by China not to offer it,” he warns. 

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is also extending its long-range capability. 

The Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report referenced the continued development of the PLAAF’s long-range J-20 fighter, which according to the Royal United Services Institute’s Justin Bronk, can attack vital combat-enabler platforms like the KC-30A refueller and the E-7A Wedgetail early warning and control aircraft. 

“The J-20’s range of up to 2,700km means that, if deployed to bases in the South China Sea, it could potentially strike airborne refuellers operating out of northern Australia,” Davis adds. 

The H6N bomber, he continues, can also carry air-launched ballistic missiles with a range of 3,500km, potentially striking targets as far south as Pine Gap. 

“As ASPI’s Marcus Hellyer notes, RAAF airborne refuellers extend the time on station of platforms such as the F-35A and extend their range by about 500km. The risk is that increasingly long-range PLAAF airpower will place these airborne refuellers under threat,” Davis writes. 

As such, Davis recommends two options for offsetting such risks, including the acquisition of longerrange fighters, with potential solutions explored as part of the US Air Force Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and US Navy F/A-XX programs. However, the RAAF could wait until the 2030s to secure this capability. 

Alternatively, he proposes leveraging Loyal Wingman technology for a future multirole vehicle, capable of both longerrange strike and long-range air defence missions as part of an integrated air and missile defence system, similar to that proposed under Project AIR 6500. 

Davis concludes that evolving the Loyal Wingman presents a “clear path forward” for the RAAF. 

“In confronting the growing challenge posed by a much more capable PLAAF, the RAAF needs to think in terms of hemispheric airpower projection. That’s a job for Loyal Wingman 2.”