Beyond our control

The ease with which we criss-cross the planet permits the global transit of many things, both good and bad. A virus that may have once been able to be contained within a relatively small perimeter can now be distributed across continents in a relatively short time frame. Such global spread has both health and economic ramifications and air travel is central to both.

In a positive sense, normally aviation has a strong role to play in the aid of the sick and injured. We have also seen charter flights from a number of nations returning their citizens to home soil with a combination of speed, care and quarantine that only air transport can provide. Conversely, we have seen some Asian routes cease operation and others cut dramatically. Aircraft have been found in surplus and their crew effectively grounded.

Coronavirus has again highlighted aviation’s vulnerability to forces beyond its control. In 1997 ‘Bird Flu’ emerged, with SARS taking hold in late 2002. In-between, the world was stunned by the 9/11 terrorist attacks that forever changed the face of aviation. And there is always the underlying shifting momentum of oil prices and the mystic art of fuel hedging to influence where, when and how often aircraft fly. 

Anyone who has been around the industry for any length of time appreciates that it is cyclic in nature, but long-term strategies such as aircraft fleet purchases and recruitment can be at odds with the unforeseen arrival of a global crisis. Tactically, airlines need to be able to pivot quickly and modify the frequency of service and reschedule the aircraft type that they assign to certain routes. And this is not necessarily limited to the affected regions as all air travel, domestic and international, can suffer from the knock-on effect of changes elsewhere. Ultimately, aircraft and crews on the ground are an expensive overhead and already we have seen ex-pat pilots for certain Asian carriers heading back home on unpaid leave. 

As we have seen with SARS, ‘Bird Flu’ and 9/11, the world and the aviation industry managed to come out the other side of such crises. However, that is not to say they have done so unscathed. It is far more difficult to restore confidence than it is to re-establish an air route. Businesses and the travelling public will traditionally be slow to resume their normal travel patterns and in the case of 9/11, the security process in doing so has been changed forever. The airport terminals of certain nations have retained their heat sensing equipment for inbound passengers as a legacy of SARS, while others have recently introduced such measures. Whether it is infrared thermal screening, security measures or additional staffing requirements, each response comes with a cost that is ultimately passed onto the passenger.

It is still unknown how long COVID-19 will pose a threat and to what extent it will reach. The situation is still unfolding as the World Health Organisation and laboratories around the world seek to counter it. Similarly, its long-term effects on the aviation industry are yet to be seen. New protocols and even new equipment may be forthcoming. Airports may develop new means of screening and aircraft designers may research new filter systems for their air conditioning. Hopefully, with each event a greater grasp of the situation is gained, the responses reviewed and improved procedures put in place for the next time a virulent outbreak occurs.

When an issue is global, aviation cannot help but be involved. Its speed of travel across vast distances has brought the world closer together but unfortunately it can also expedite the transfer of society’s less desirable byproducts. It is unlikely that the COVID-19 outbreak is the last time we will witness a virus but hopefully the lessons learned will result in improved responses in the future. Regardless, it is yet another reminder that despite a strong focus on safety and new technologies, the airline industry will always be at the mercy of circumstances beyond its control.

The airline industry will always be at the mercy of circumstances beyond its control