To Aviate or Not: The Post-Pandemic Outlook

Boeing’s 2020-2039 CMO, released in October 2020, forecast 43,110 new commercial aircraft deliveries over the period (2021-2039). In Boeing’s prior year 2019-2038 CMO, the company forecast 44,040 new aircraft deliveries. This reduction of 960 aircraft deliveries over 20 years, or about 2 per cent, from 2019’s to 2020’s CMO forecast is not as significant as it may feel mid-pandemic. Boeing’s average annual deliveries between 1998 and 2020 were 507 aircraft to Airbus’ 500, thus, the 960 fewer aircraft is about a year’s worth of aircraft by all manufacturers. Or, over the 20-year forecast period, a couple of months of reduced deliveries.

This analysis is not intended to diminish the significant health, economic, and human costs of COVID-19. And, it’s important to remember that these are only forecasts. But, they do highlight underlying industry optimism. As Boeing put it in its 2020 CMO, “the fundamentals that have driven air travel over the past 50 years and doubled air traffic over the past 20 years remain intact”.

Applying the same approach to Boeing’s PTO forecasts for 2020-2039 and 2019-2038 highlights new global pilot demand of 763,000 and 804,000, respectively. Again, COVID-19 has reduced the total expected required commercial pilots by 63,000 over 20 years, less than 8 per cent of the total period forecast in both years’ reports. Assuming underlying air travel demand fundamentals remain strong, then pilots and trained aviation personnel will continue to be needed to deliver that growth and capability.

In November last year, CAE, a major aviation training provider, forecast that the global civil aviation industry would still require 27,000 new pilots by the end of 2021 as a result of “age-based retirements and attrition.” This forecast was received with some skepticism, with a few cynical industry pundits speculating that it was in an aviation training provider’s interests to continue to forecast a pilot shortage for their own business. I consider this skepticism as unsubstantiated, and refer back to the basic principles growing air travel demand and global economic growth as the reasons behind increased pilot training number forecasts. 

It is challenging to gauge how many commercial pilots are trained per year, but global estimates range between 10,000 and 20,000. In Australia, CASA issued an average of 1,320 new air transport and commercial aeroplane pilot licences per year between 2018 and 2020. Interestingly, this period has seen steadily reducing numbers of new Airline Transport Pilot Licences, and increasing numbers of Commercial Pilot Licences. The point being that the bandwidth to physically train pilots is relatively narrow – a function of the lengthy time requirements, high cost, and rigid regulatory compliance required to reach and maintain CPL and ATPL standards. It can take three to five years or more for new pilot trainees to reach the required licence, type-ratings, and experience levels to be considered for employment.

The big question, as supply responds to fundamental air travel demand, is whether the well-reported pilot shortage that existed pre-pandemic will reemerge. Management consultant firm Oliver Wyman’s recent analysis indicates “a global pilot shortage will emerge in certain regions no later than 2023 and most probably before”. On the regional front, those markets with an ageing pilot population and heavy use of early retirements (North America); and stronger economic growth (Asia-Pacific, Middle East) can expect to see pilot shortages impacting operations as early as next year. Industry signals support these forecasts, with the likes of United Airlines recently launching pilot recruitment and development program Aviate; Delta Airlines cancelling flights on account of crew staffing shortages; Emirates’ steady increase of flights; and Qantas’ domestic capacity resurgence to pre-COVID levels.

Readers of Australian Aviation who may be considering a new career in, or a return to, the aviation industry should be bolstered by these forecasts. Air travel, be it passenger or freight; domestic or international; regular public transport or general aviation; has been afflicted by COVID-19 and has hurt many livelihoods. The flip side is that the whole of industry will recover – quickly, stronger, and in a more resilient and adaptable condition.

Alexander Robinson is a former RAAF pilot and the co-founder of bizjet booking app Airly.