RAAF looks ahead to future shocks and disrupters

In a publication entitled Beyond the Planned Air Force: Thoughts on Future Drivers and Disrupters, the RAAF explores a range of potential technological disruptors and the possible consequences of their adoption by Australia, or use by adversaries, offering a fascinating glimpse of a future where today’s science fiction has become tomorrow’s reality.

According to Air Commodore Mark Green, Director-General Strategy and Planning at Air Force Headquarters, this document will assist force designers, capability developers and air power professionals in developing future air power concepts for the defence of Australia, Air Force News reported.

“The Defence White Paper and Air Force Strategy provide a sound basis for strategic decisionmaking for the next decade; however, planning for systems with multi-decade lifespans requires considering possibilities well beyond current forecast horizons,” AIRCDRE Green was quoted as saying.

“There is an opportunity for us to exploit future changes to our advantage. If we can look beyond our current planned Air Force and consider future factors in force design we will retain our ability to project air power anywhere, across all domains, in the way we choose.” As the Air Power Development Centre publication explains, the potential disruptors that have been identified are external factors that might influence the course of the RAAF’s intended development path, either positively or negatively. Forecast technological disruptors include autonomous systems, which are anticipated to proliferate and become intrinsic to the application of air power.

That being said, and although the level of trust in autonomous systems is expected to increase over time, the RAAF is unlikely to become completely reliant on them. “Providing complete autonomy in the decision-making cycle, especially when weapon release is involved, will continue to be a keenly debated ethical topic,” the document observes.

“Air Force will likely retain designs to keep qualified humans involved in the decision-making systems at all times, even if it is only to write the software rules of engagement governing the operation of an autonomous system and to monitor the execution of the autonomous system missions with options for human intervention.” The RAAF is envisaged as operating a mix of manned and unmanned systems, which are referred to in the document as ‘inhabited’ and ‘uninhabited’ systems.

Unmanned combat aerial vehicles will likely routinely be operated in the strike role as adjuncts to manned platforms, although the reliance of unmanned systems on network connectivity is acknowledged as being an ongoing vulnerability.

The RAAF’s F/A-18F Super Hornet fleet could end up being replaced by a UCAV by around 2030, as the Integrated Investment Program stated.

Driving down the cost of unmanned systems might lead to the adoption of swarming tactics to overwhelm air defences. A possible solution could be the development of directed energy weapon (DEW) systems that would provide a low cost per shot response to a swarm of relatively cheap unmanned aerial vehicles.

“DEWs are systems that employ high-energy lasers, highpower microwaves and/or radio frequencies to incapacitate, damage, disrupt or destroy adversary capabilities and assets,” the document explains.

“When mature, they will have the capacity to create both lethal and non-lethal effects. As they will likely proliferate, actions must be initiated to protect [our] own systems against DEWs. “Although the power and cooling requirements currently limit the deployment of high-energy laser weapons, technological solutions to the challenge will be forthcoming.” Meanwhile, developments in propulsion technology are leading to the production of weapons with extremely long ranges that are faster than legacy systems.

The publication notes that the RAAF might therefore need to operate its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and air-to-air refuelling platforms at a distance from optimum locations. The Defence Science and Technology Group is collaborating with the US Air Force Research Laboratory to explore hypersonic flight under the Hypersonic International Flight Research Experimentation (HIFiRE) program.

On the other hand, the US Air Force is understood to be considering stealth as part of an effort to eventually acquire a technologically advanced tanker known as KC-Z.

However, stealth is not necessarily the be all and end all. “Quantum technologies being developed are expected to significantly improve sensor capabilities and create the ability to better discriminate targets from background clutter,” the RAAF document states. “This is likely to become a counter-stealth solution.” Indeed, media reports that discussed the possibility of China having tested ‘quantum radar technology’ that would be capable of detecting a low-observable aircraft such as the F-35 caused quite a stir.

Not all of the potential disruptors that have been identified are purely technological in nature. Beyond the Planned Air Force highlights the importance to Australia of maintaining access to energy markets given the RAAF’s reliance on hydrocarbon fuels, and suggests that the use of alternative energy sources to support operations should be assessed. The possible consequences of climate change are also discussed.

“Climate patterns are becoming more unpredictable, generating more extreme weather events, at times and in locations different from historical patterns,” the publication states.

“Should this trend continue, Air Force may be required to operate in conditions, or respond to climate-triggered events, that are increasingly severe and challenging to the efficient conduct of operations.”

And for all the discussion of technological development, people will remain at the heart of the RAAF’s capacity to perform. “In the recent past, Air Force was seen by some as a preferred employer because it offered ready access to sophisticated technology,” the document states.

“The proliferation of technology in the commercial sector has significantly broadened the options available to those seeking employment in the technology sector, to the detriment of [their] recruitment by Air Force.

“Attracting and retaining the right people in the necessary numbers will likely remain a challenge that needs to be addressed.”