Send in the drones

But the ADF is now on the verge of a full embrace of remotely piloted aircraft, thanks to three major acquisition projects – AIR 7000 Phase 1B for a high altitude long endurance unmanned aircraft system (UAS), AIR 7003 for an armed MALE, and SEA 129 for a ship-based VTOL UAS to operate from the Navy’s forthcoming frigates, destroyers and patrol vessels.

All three programs generated plenty of attention at Avalon – no visitor to the show could miss Northrop Grumman’s full-scale mockups of the MQ-4B Triton and MQ-8C Fire Scout just outside the main trade halls, contending for AIR 7000 Phase 1b and SEA 129 Phase 5 respectively.

And nearby on the static display line were a General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper and an IAI Heron TP, duking it out for AIR 7003.

All three are fascinating programs, all three will deliver hitherto new capabilities to the ADF, and all three will excel at the key advantages of UAVs – “The very dull, the very long, the very boring, those [missions] are perfect for an unmanned system,” as Captain Jeff Dodge, the US Navy’s program manager for Fire Scout, put it to Australian media in January.

Add to that the dangerous, as UAVs can be sent into harm’s way where an manned aircraft, where there is the potential for loss of life, might not.

Unmanned aircraft excel at persistent surveillance – Triton has an endurance of over 24 hours, Reaper of over to 20 hours and the Fire Scout up to 12 hours.

That promises to significantly improve the ADF’s situational awareness in both the maritime and land domains. Information has always been critical in warfare, but never moreso than in today’s information age, where networking and datalinking offer the promise of sharing surveillance and targeting information around the battlespace in real time, so commanders get that information where and when they need it, no matter which platform generated that information.

But first, to realise that promise, all three programs needs to progress from evaluation to acquisition. First cab off the rank there is due to be AIR 7003. Indeed there had been some speculation in the leadup to Avalon that a decision to acquire the Reaper through the US Foreign Military Sales program would be announced at the airshow.

Instead, that decision still appears some months off, and IAI has sniffed an opportunity. In a call reminiscent of Australian Aerospace’s call earlier this decade for a competition between the NFH 90 and the MH-60R for the Navy’s maritime helicopter, IAI too is asking for the opportunity to compete for the AIR 7003 requirement. And the federal government’s renewed focus on supporting Australian defence industry may present an opening, with IAI promising “significant workshare” for local partners.

A final decision on AIR 7000 Phase 1B is due next year, while SEA 129 Phase 5’s two stages for the patrol vessels and then the frigates and destroyers) are due to be announced in the early 2020s. So it will be a few years yet before the the ADF can take full advantage of the unmanned revolution.

But these won’t be the last unmanned platforms Australia acquires.

Watching the F-35 arrive at Avalon for its Australian public debut was to witness a once in a generation piece of history, given the jet’s expected 30+ year service life as the RAAF’s premier frontline fighter.

It may have been historic on another level as well. Did we just witness the arrival of Australia’s last manned frontline fighter?