Betting on the big bus

That is a warning from Sir Tim Clark, president of the world’s largest international airline, Dubai-based Emirates.

Speaking with Contrails in October, Clark also suggested that premium economy was on the radar at Emirates.

“The A380 is streets ahead of anything else when it comes to capacity and is the only solution to congestion at airports like Heathrow,” said Clark.

“And we are also getting congestion now at airports like New York’s John F Kennedy, at Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Boston and many others. ” “When we first went to JFK we could have any slot we wanted – now there are hardly any. ” Airbus figures support Clark’s concerns that 39 of the current 47 mega cities are now congested.

“There is a lack of runway development at major airports across the globe and there is no other solution than an A380. ” And the issue at mega cities is only going to grow as their number increases from the current 47 with more than 10,000 long-haul passengers a day to a projected 91 mega cities by 2034 as traffic doubles over the next 20 years.

But Clark concedes that there is “a reluctance at some airlines to commit in the current economic conditions. ” “We have many uncertainties economically and politically and equipment decisions in airline board rooms are being put on hold. ” “There is even a slowing for big twins [like the 777, 787 and A350]. ” However, Clark said that with manufacturers keen to fill production slots for their larger aircraft now is a “great time to buy. ’’ And when the upturn comes, airlines will be scrambling for capacity says Clark.

Airbus is in a quandary about launching a re-engined A380 dubbed the neo, suggests Clark.

“There are two groups in Airbus – the believers and non-believers. ” Clark said the A380neo would be a great aircraft and on long-haul missions of say 17 hours would eliminate the A380’s current 30 to 40 seat penalty and enable the carriage of several tonnes of additional freight.

Airbus and Boeing have both slowed the production rates for their largest offerings, the A380 and 747, to just a trickle with warnings from analysts that the end is possible for both giants.

New customers, with the exception of Iran Air, which has said it will buy 12 A380s and four 747s, are thin on the ground.

And aside from Emirates’ outstanding commitment for 59 to add to its existing 83 the order book for the A380 looks thin.

Qantas and Virgin Atlantic have both indicated at various times that they will not take outstanding orders of eight and six respectively. And Singapore Airlines appears to be moving to return from lease at least one and possibly four more A380s to maintain its fleet at 20 as another five more capable aircraft are delivered.

Malaysia Airlines, crippled by the MH370 and MH17 disasters and competition from Middle Eastern airlines, is examining leasing out some of its six A380s.

Still, Airbus is continuing with improvements for the A380 to make it more attractive.

A series of interesting seating options are being examined or are offered such as the removal of the upper deck sidewall stowage to enable the addition of 10 more business class suites, while a main deck premium economy in a nine across 3-3-3 configuration or 11 across 3-5-3 in economy would add significant capacity options.

Airbus is also adding to the A380’s capabilities with a host of improvements such as improved fuel burn; a 1,000kg weight reduction; internet connectivity; increased design weights and wing aerodynamic improvements.

Clark also has another role for the A380 – long range LCC beater! “’Watch out for the new long-haul low-cost airlines” warns Clark.

He cites the likes of Norwegian and Scoot which are now re-writing the long-haul rule book.

The A380, with its seat economics in a high density configuration, is a great tool to compete with this new generation of carriers says Clark.

While not committing Emirates to revisit his once touted Stansted-Colombo-Avalon low-cost high density flight, Clark said “never say never. ”

There is a lack of runway development at major airports across the globe.