Stuck In The Middle

Practically speaking, “turboprops are best suited to short sectors that are either too small to support a larger jet aircraft on a daily service, or where there is demand for an airline to provide multiple frequencies that better cater to the needs of passengers by enabling a return day trip to a major city or vice versa,” Virgin Australia’s executive general manager for fleet and network Russell Shaw explains to Australian Aviation.

Airframer ATR’s head of global sales John Moore concurs. “The operational economics of a turboprop makes a lot of sense from a cost perspective to service small feeder routes given the traffic to capacity ratios, allowing higher frequencies and opening up markets at the lowest cost. Although the longer sectors between 300-900nm do represent 20 per cent of all ATR operations, airlines often consider the economics of jets to serve longer and higher density routes, where speed becomes an advantage. ” Turboprops “are optimally positioned to link medium-sized and small-sized towns, while contributing to feed main hubs,” Moore continues. “They have proven to be the optimal choice for thin and short-haul routes up to 300nm, becoming the preferred regional aircraft, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. ” The range profile of routes operated by ATR family aircraft (which can reach 825nm) tend to be slightly shorter than Bombardier’s Q400 (with a range of 1,360nm), given that the ATR cruises at just over 270kt while the Q400 can reach over 350kt. Together, these two aircraft dominate the market.

The market for new turboprops is currently split between the Bombardier Q400 and ATR 42/72

In its various forms 1,200 Bombardier Dash 8s – created as the de Havilland Canada DHC-8 with its first flight in 1983 – have been delivered in the two decades since the aircraft was launched, with a post-1997 tranche receiving cabin noise reduction measures and being prefixed with a Q, for quiet. Current production is limited to the Q400, with the smallest Q100 cut in 2005, followed by the Q200 and Q300 in 2009. The Q400 NextGen began production in 2008, principally offering an updated cabin and slightly increased performance.

Franco-Italian consortium ATR, meanwhile, has delivered over 400 ATR 42s and over 800 ATR 72s in roughly a similar timeframe. The current -600 series models, which launched in 2010, feature updated engines, cabin and avionics.

Accounting for the differences in seat capacity across airline configurations, the ATR 42 and Q300 sit in the roughly 50-seater space, while the ATR 72 and Q400 cover the 70-80 seater market, with recent high-density cabins now offering up to ninety seats.

Legacy players, including Fokker, Saab, Beechcraft and others, no longer produce commercial turboprops, and these aircraft are being phased out by most airlines that fly them.

Existing operators within Australia and New Zealand operate a mix of newer and older turboprops

By number Regional Express is the largest Australian operator of turboprops, with more than 50 Saab 340s of varying sub-types, seating between 33 and 36 passengers, across its network of subsidised and unsubsidised routes. The replacement of the Saab 340 has loomed as an issue for Rex for over a decade, but the airline has recently secured a significant stock of spares from a major US regional airline, and is also providing upgraded avionics.

QantasLink has nearly 50 Dash 8 turboprops, with 74-seater Q400 flights operated by subsidiary Sunstate Airlines and the remaining 11 50-seater Q300 and three 36-seater Q200 aircraft operated by Eastern Australia airlines, which also flies the “Propstar”-nicknamed regional flights for Jetstar in New Zealand with five Q300s.

QantasLink sits in a strong position given its ability to connect passengers to the widest range of international destinations from Australia, and also in that it can continue to operate the smaller Dash 8 aircraft alongside the Q400s with a degree of fleet commonality.

Virgin Australia currently operates 14 ATR 72 aircraft, a mix of -500 and -600 models, seating 68 passengers, on a range of regional routes. As the airline divests itself of the seventeen-strong Embraer E190 aircraft in the current fleet, the ATRs are likely to take up additional flying, although Virgin is also disposing of a small number of its ATR fleet as well. Virgin Australia Regional Airlines, the former Skywest, meanwhile, has parked its six 46-seat Fokker 50s, a reflection of that aircraft’s age and the decline in fly-in/fly-out traffic in WA.

Across the Tasman, in addition to the five Eastern Australia ‘Propstar’ flights, Air New Zealand’s Air Nelson subsidiary also operates 23 50-seater Q300s on flights around the country. Mount Cook Airline, the Kiwi carrier’s ATR-operating subsidiary, flies 11 ATR 72-500 and 15 ATR 72-600 aircraft, and will replace the -500s with -600s by 2020.

Both ATR variants seat 68 passengers, and it would seem clear that Air New Zealand’s subsidiaries’ futures lie in the ATR, for which the heavy maintenance is done at Air Nelson’s base.

Indeed, with the relatively short distances between New Zealand markets, yet the challenging geographical terrain for road alternatives, the speed differential between the ATRs and jets is mostly irrelevant for this market.

Turboprops vs small jets

With increasingly efficient generations of small jets with larger cabin diameters than either the ATR or Q400 offering a greater passenger experience, the decision point between operating a large turboprop and similarly sized regional jet revolves around the cost per seat versus the cost per trip.

“Over shorter sectors, jets tend to burn more fuel than turboprops, and the quicker journey time does not compensate for that operating cost disadvantage,” Virgin Australia’s Shaw says. “As the sector length increases, the jet comes into its own as its speed allows for greater opportunities to fly additional sectors. ” Bombardier’s vice president, commercial operations, Ross Mitchell, suggests that “the Q400 with its flexibility offers a different sort of decision point than you would have had versus a more traditional turboprop. Because of its larger capacity and higher speed, there are certainly routes that a Q400 can do that a more traditional turboprop wouldn’t have done in the past. It certainly changes the decision point. ” Working through the decision point for an airline, Mitchell says, “what you need to do is look at the capacity requirements, because clearly a CRJ 1000 has a larger capacity than a Q400 does. If you think that you need that extra capacity, then that might be a reason for choosing the jet. And you’d also look at your average route length, your average stage length and what your longest stage lengths are.

“But today, frankly, you used to have a decision point you’d think would be within a couple hundred nautical miles [of stage length] for a turboprop, but today with the Q400, you’re capable of going much further. So you shift that decision point out in terms of your average stage length. ”

Over shorter sectors, jets tend to burn more fuel than turboprops. RUSSELL SHAW

Several airlines operate significant outliers in stage length on the Q400, Mitchell continues. “Ethiopian has flown the airplane from Addis Ababa to Dar es Salaam, which is over 1,000nm. Porter flies the airplanes from Toronto City down to destinations in the southern US to Myrtle Beach and Melbourne, Florida [over 900nm], which again are very long routes for this type of aircraft. So if you have to make a decision between one or the other – which isn’t always the case because sometimes they are complementary to existing fleets such as Air Canada Jazz – it would come down to requiring extra range, and that would make you lean towards a jet. ” ATR’s John Moore also focuses on the economics when setting turboprops against jets. “On a 300nm route, an ATR-600’s cash operating costs per trip can be 30-40 per cent lower than similar-sized in-production regional jets, and 50 per cent lower than out-of-production regional jets. An ATR72-600 can burn up to 40 per cent less fuel than a similar-sized regional jet on a typical 300nm route, and its direct maintenance costs can be up to 40 per cent lower per flight hour, because turboprops have simpler systems, lighter structures and less installed power. The lower operating weights of turboprops can result in 25-30 per cent lower navigation and airport fees, so the heavier regional jets will incur higher costs. ” It’s not just economic performance, however, Moore says. “Turboprops have higher operational versatility than regional jets, which makes them well suited to regional airports. They have better short field performance. Their lower approach speeds allow operations on shorter runways, and offer more manoeuverability for airports with difficult access. ” Bombardier’s Mitchell concurs, highlighting this crucial niche, where turboprops are increasingly replacing older, smaller jet aircraft, noting that the Q400 “can carry a lot of weight into some of those situations. You might be going a fair distance, so you need the range. You are also likely to be flying into a situation where an alternate airport is likely to be further away, so that necessitates certain requirements for flight planning purposes. It’s also very good in terms of unpaved runways – the aircraft is high off the ground, the stance of the landing gear is wide. So those things certainly help the airplane in terms of performing on and off of an unpaved runway. “As well, you are looking at an airplane which has plenty of power and reserve to take off from short runways. And we have a large cargo capacity already in the existing aircraft. But if someone requires it, then you can go to the cargo combi aircraft, which provides much more capacity and oftentimes when you are flying into these more remote places with unpaved runways, you want the cargo capacity. So certainly we expect to see cargo combi being popular for those types of operations. ” ATR is also spruiking its aircraft for what Moore calls “challenging operating environments with high temperatures, high altitudes, big or small cities in all types of climates and conditions. ” Moore notes that “operational flexibility and versatility are what regional customers appreciate worldwide. Cost-effectiveness, flexibility, versatility and our continuous innovation policy are the basic components of our products’ characteristics. ”

Prospects for larger turboprops require both demand and a first mover among the airframers

Yet at the upper size boundaries, turboprops do not yet overlap with jets at the crucial 100-seater mark, a sweet spot for airline economics for a number of factors including flight attendant salary cost. A 51-seater and 100-seater both require two flight attendants, a key part of operating costs. “If regional routes grow over time, larger turboprops would become advantageous as they allow for a lower cost per seat,” Virgin Australia’s Shaw sums up.

Bombardier, which a decade ago was studying a two-segment stretch of its aircraft under the Q400X moniker, isn’t currently talking about a stretched version.

“I think right now the Q400 meets the current and future demands of the market,” Mitchell says. “By virtue of the fact that we now can get up to 90 seats in the airplane, and we’ve put a design weight increase in place that sort of allows 90 passengers to be fit into the aircraft at the appropriate weight and going the appropriate ranges, for the near term, the Q400 fulfills the market requirements. Lots of airlines are now interested and talking with us about that 90-seat version. ” ATR, too, is keeping its cards close to its chest. “Today, airlines that serve high density routes (often requiring 100-seat planes to satisfy market demand) have no other alternative but to fly regional jets, even on the shortest distances,” says Moore.

Operational flexibility and versatility are what regional customers appreciate. JOHN MOORE

“Turboprop technology can be valuable for these airlines that seek to combine ‘right-sizing’ and economics, given that the number of airlines operating 75-seaters today is growing fast. The industry trend toward upgauging exists, so there is certainly a market for larger turboprops. We are indeed evaluating the business case as well as the technical developments. ATR has recently certified a new HD cabin for up to 78 passengers. ATR believes that the amount of the investment for a larger capacity turboprop may focus our attention to the development of a 100- seat (rather than a 90-seater aircraft). Yet, no decisions have been taken yet regarding the development of a 100-seater. ”

account. Remarkably, considering how much of the regional jet market is designed and sized for the unique scope clauses that restrict the weight and seats operated by US mainline carriers, turboprops have not recently seen success in the United States. All three of the large US carriers have been moving away from turboprop operations in favour of regional jets like the Embraer E-Jet and Bombardier CRJ series, which have size overlaps.

The mid-term future will see a crunch point in replacing a generation of smaller turboprops

“The smaller the aircraft, the higher the cost per seat,” Virgin Australia’s Shaw explains. “This can become a major issue in a rising fuel price environment where the major competitor to the small turboprop on short sectors is the car. There has been very little development of newer technology turboprops below the 60-seater level in recent years, suggesting global demand is for larger turboprops. As a result there is no like-for-like newer technology aircraft available to replace legacy small turboprops like the Saab 340. ” For Rex then, with its 50 Saab 340s, and for the smaller end of the QantasLink market, the issue is that “today, the 30-seat aircraft are out of production”, says ATR’s Moore. “All in all, there are about 700 below 30-seat planes in service worldwide (in a passenger configuration). In Australia, some 80 aircraft of 30 seats are flown by eight operators. Their average age is 24, the youngest is 20 years old. ” “There is a real need for an aircraft with the right configuration and optimised costs that can replace these older aircraft,” Moore notes. “ATR has also developed a cargo-flex concept which enables airlines to adjust their service in response to the market need, adapting the aircraft to very small and often remote markets by adding cargo revenue. Accessibility to challenging airfields (runway performance and maneuverability) is another factor pushing airlines to upgauge their fleets with larger planes like the 50-seat ATR 42s.

For Bombardier’s part, Mitchell notes that the Dash 8 “has great structural integrity and systems that last for quite a long time. So you’ll see some of our old Dash 8-100s and 200s that have been in service in excess of 20 years now. And so the Q400s that Qantaslink has, certainly they can use them for many years to come. It will really be a question of what they want to do with their fleets. We stand ready to assist them when they make that decision. ” QantasLink, with its existing fleet of low ownership cost smaller Dash 8 aircraft operating alongside a sizeable Q400 fleet, is in a relatively strong position in terms of operating these sub-Q400 aircraft for the near term. Yet the operating costs of the ATR are very persuasive.

“ATR is an airplane that is built for fuel economy. The ATR-600 is 25 per cent more fuel efficient than the Q400,” says Moore. “Although operating at a lower speed, on short sectors (up to 300nm), which form the bulk of the Australian routes, the sector time difference is 10 minutes or less” compared with the Q400. When taking into account block time, especially at larger airports, this difference tends to disappear. ” Yet the cheaper operating costs of the ATR 72, together with the ATR 42 that remains in production, make a compelling case. Fuel efficiency means that the ATR can operate profitably at a lower load factor than older turboprops, and the lower speed is unlikely to make a difference for most regional routes, particularly those with no or very little competition.

Passenger experience on turboprops continues to evolve, with entertainment and connectivity on the horizon

“The modern ATR -600 aircraft offer superior comfort to its passengers, bringing a harmonious and balanced environment with more personal space, larger overhead bins, mild LED lighting and inflight entertainment, making the travel experience aboard an ATR similar to that of jet aircraft. ATR is continuously working on new interior improvements to further enhance passenger experience,” Moore says, citing “connectivity, noise reduction, and even lighter materials. ” “The ATR turboprops feature a redesigned interior cabin, the widest crosssection in the turboprop segment, and the ability to offer seating in three classes, including a three-abreast first class section. More flexible solutions can be offered to customers requiring single and dual-class seating (for the ATR 42) and single and triple class (for ATR 72),” Moore notes.

For Bombardier’s part, “we certainly make sure from the beginning the interior of the Q400 is comfortable and airy and large to start with,” says Mitchell. “In the airplane, it has large windows and they are all closely spaced together. In fact, the cabin is quite bright. We put LED lighting into the airplane, which again makes the aircraft brighter. We put big next generation bins into the aircraft so that you will be able to put more luggage into the bins. We continue to improve the Q400 interior as we learn new things and put them into our other products. ” “I think the Q400 is by far the best in terms of turboprops, in terms of comfort. And we continue to invest in that interior all the time. We are very proud of it, and our customers like that interior – and of course, we have flexibility. You can put two lavatories into the airplane; no one else can do that. We can put a proper two by one business class in the front of the airplane, and our competitors can’t do that,” Mitchell suggests.

Connectivity, too, is coming to turboprops, Mitchell notes, and in one case is already here. “We’ve already had a customer – ANA – who put a wireless entertainment system into their aircraft. That’s now operating: it’s certainly something that could be put into any aircraft now. We certainly see that as something that could be put on the aircraft going forward. Shorter stage lengths will make the determination as to who wants to put that on. ” And that’s the issue for connectivity: coming to a place where turboprop flyers want to be connected even for shorter routes.

For the future, there is certainly space for what one could nickname the ‘CSeries of turboprops’ – an efficient, re-engined aircraft with a wider fuselage optimised for 18. 5-19in seats, internet connectivity and larger bins. For key markets where turboprops are unfavourably viewed, a more comfortable cabin than many regional jets could persuade a new generation of passengers to prefer the turboprop to the jet.

Internationally, a range of airframers are well advanced in testing and production of a generation of new regional jets. Those manufacturers are developing relationships with regional airlines worldwide – the same airlines, in many cases, that are turboprop operators. Can Bombardier and ATR afford not to be developing a future turboprop focused strongly on comfort, rather than on operational efficiency?

Connectivity, too, is coming to turboprops.