Twin Time

With a 330 minute ETOPS-equipped 787 non-stop operations could be mounted to almost anywhere, and if the airline opted for more cargo fire suppression capability, 370 minute ETOPS is available which would mean unlimited operations across the South Pole. Perth-Santiago Chile would be possible.

Qantas chief Alan Joyce also told Australian Aviation that WA could “become the hub for non-stop operations to Europe” with passengers from the Australian east coast flying into Perth to join the 787 nonstop services. Such a flight would likely be done using a specially configured 787-9 with just first, business and premium economy seats.

But more immediately would be a host of new city pairs across the Pacific plus existing routes like Sydney to San Francisco.

Extended-Range Twin Operations

Initially the term ETOPS stood for Extended-Range Twin Operations, but later when the industry adopted the standards across three and four engine aircraft it stood for Extended Operations.

ETOPS was introduced in the mid-1980s when the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) eased the restriction that twin-engine aircraft had to fly within 60 minutes of a diversion airfield in the event of an engine shutdown to 120 minutes.

That 60-minutes rule was developed in 1953 because the average engine shutdown rate for piston engines was 0. 35/1,000hrs. In fact the engine reliability problem was so bad that in Qantas service the four-engine Constellation could notch up five engine changes on one round trip between Sydney and London.

In formulating ETOPS, regulators were aware even then that engine reliability was only a small factor and ETOPS-certified aircraft had to have a stringent number of other elements including additional cooling monitoring; an extra back-up hydraulic motor/generator; a revised engine instrument crew alerting system (EICAS); increased APU reliability with higher altitude starting capability; additional cargo compartment fire suppression and a duplicate electrical system.

Pioneers

Even before the FAA introduced ETOPS in the mid ’80s a few airlines applied for and gained exemptions for extended operations beyond 60 minutes to 90 minutes under ICAO guidelines.

One of those was TAA, which used a 90-minute extension to operate Airbus A300s between Melbourne and Perth.

The first ETOPS flight was on February 1 1985 when a Trans World Airlines (TWA) Boeing 767-200 flew 2,986nm from Boston to Paris. Within 10 years, twin-engine aircraft were the most widely used form of transport across the North Atlantic and opened up a host of new routes bypassing hubs.

Qantas and Air New Zealand were both to the fore with ETOPS and operated 767s around the Pacific on routes such as Sydney-Honolulu and Auckland-Honolulu. Air New Zealand was the first airline to achieve 180-minutes ETOPS in 1989.

That requirement called for one year of 120-minute experience demonstrating an IFSD rate of 0. 02 per 1,000 engine hours. And by that year twin-engine aircraft were accepted as extremely safe – in fact, safer than three and four-engine aircraft because of the additional backup systems on board.

Airbus and Boeing took advantage of this reliability in developing their A330 and 777 designs respectively, both of which offered increased range over existing twin-aisle twin-engine designs.

Boeing drew on the ETOPS experience with its 767s and made 160 refinements to the engine systems and 300 design modifications unrelated to the engines.

The 777 and A330 would then go on to set new industry records for on-time reliability.

The ETOPS experience led regulators to increase the diversion time from 180 to 207 minutes on a case-by-case basis to allow twin-engine 777 aircraft to cross the North Pacific when some diversionary airports

Other options for Qantas’s 787 operations include basing a fleet in Dubai.

were closed because of winter weather. The effect was dramatic with airlines dumping their fuel-thirsty 747s for Boeing 777s and A330s almost overnight.

With the introduction of the 207 minute rule on an exemption basis, airlines and aircraft manufacturers turned to a complete review of ETOPS operations with a view to introducing the regulations for all aircraft and extending them further.

In November 2003, the FAA endorsed the industry recommendations for an increase in ETOPS from 207 minutes to 240 minutes, in essence recognising that engine reliability was no longer the major culprit for diversions.

Paradoxically, when the FAA Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) was issued, it focused more on bringing existing three and four-engine aircraft’s reliability and systems up to the standard of twins like the A330 and 777 and defining the required standards for all airlines operating aircraft into remote regions.

Engine reliability was by that date well beyond the regulators’ requirements of an IFSD rate of 0. 02/1,000 engine hours for 180 minutes ETOPS set in 1988. The Boeing 777/GE90 combination demonstrated a rate of just 0. 002/1,000 hours during September 2003.

And the following month a Boeing 777-300ER completed the longest engine-out demonstration flight ever in support of Extended Operations certification, when it flew more than five hours with one of its two engines shut down. During the approximately 13-hour Seattle-Taipei test flight, the crew shut off one of the two General Electric GE90-115B engines and flew the aircraft for 330 minutes on the other engine.

The 240-minute ETOPS capability came with a list of additional or revised requirements covering systems (for example three independent electrical generators), passenger recovery plans, ARFF services at alternate airports, codified crew training requirements, and having reliable SATCOM.

Then in late 2012 Boeing gained 330-minutes ETOPS for the 777, with Air New Zealand the first to take advantage of this with its new 777‑300ERs, having already performed 240-minutes ETOPS between Auckland and LA.

Extraordinary record

Since the beginning of ETOPS in 1985, over 12 million ETOPS flights have been flown and more than 9 million of those have been on Boeing aircraft. Currently, 150 separate operators are approved for ETOPS on Boeing aircraft and are flying more than 2,000 ETOPS flights per day.

The 787 has flown over 130,000 ETOPS flights since the first in 2012, and 31 ETOPS operators are flying more than 200 787 ETOPS flights perday. All 787s are approved by the FAA /EASA for 330-minutes operations.

Airbus also has a very impressive ETOPS record. It was first with 90min ETOPs with the Singapore Airlines A310, first with fly-by-wire ETOPS with the A320, first with 240min with the A330 in 2009 and now first with 370min or “unlimited ETOPS” with the A350 last year.

The company’s main ETOPS performer is the A330 with 12. 4 million ETOPS hours and 1. 7 million flights with 90 per cent of operators being ETOPS certified.

The reality today is that ETOPS is all about making sure the rest of the aircraft is as reliable as the engines with the overwhelming majority of diversions of (which there are very few) have nothing to do with the engines.

According to Brice Tapie, Airbus aircraft performance senior analyst, “the in-flight shut down rate today is about five times lower than the more stringent level defined for ETOPS beyond 180min. ” September’s engine failure on a British Airways 777 on its takeoff roll from Las Vegas, while exceptional, fits the statistics which show almost all events occur at the airport or within 15 minutes of takeoff.

Going further

With this stellar industry experience Qantas has virtually unlimited options for its 787 operations which will start in 2017.

The first operations will be 747 replacement on routes such as Sydney to San Francisco or Sydney to Tokyo while it builds its own ETOPS experience before putting the type on Sydney to Johannesburg.

However, the 787’s real value to Qantas will be the opening up of new non-stop routes from Australia to the Americas. While routes such as Adelaide to Los Angeles are technically possible it will be new destinations such as Seattle, Denver or San Diego that are more likely to attract attention as well as new city pairs such as Brisbane or Melbourne to San Francisco.

Other options for Qantas’s 787 operations include basing a fleet in Dubai as part of the airline’s push back into Europe working with its alliance partner Emirates. Rotation of these aircraft could be through operating Perth to Dubai in its own right as part of the alliance’s commitment to the route.

Joyce says the airline is committed to the additional 45 options and that the aircraft would replace all the 747s as well as the A330s on domestic and regional international routes.

And the 787 operation will likely be a dress rehearsal for a commitment to the Boeing 777X – both -8 and -9 say some insiders at Qantas. The tantalising aspect of the -8 model with a range of 8,700nm is that it is capable of Sydney-New York non-stop and potentially, with a reduced seat count, the holy grail of Sydney to London.

With that capability Qantas can reclaim significant premium traffic that it has lost over the past 20 years to its competitors.

Once an ETOPS pioneer, Qantas – first with the 787 and then potentially the 777X – is set to be one of the prime movers in extended operations again, opening up new routes and city pairs that will be the key to its future prosperity.