Supply and demand

Each time it is founded on an equation of the number of licences being issued and the projection of airframes that will need to be flown. The former is always represented in decline and the latter expanding beyond belief. Still there always seem to be pilots and the dust never settles on the dormant airframes.

In recent years, airlines have become increasingly astute in managing the peaks and troughs of their operations. Everyone is aware that aviation is a cyclical industry and recruitment also comes in waves. However, while airlines would once hold an excess number of pilots on their books to tide them over until the next upturn, they now offer creative options such as reduced rosters or leave without pay for pilots to fly for other carriers. This is where the major carriers have learned to regulate the issue of supply and demand, but the case may be different for regional airlines.

The pilot outcry shortage has originated in the US on this occasion and the regional carriers there are at the epicentre. Conditions for regional pilots have plunged such that worthwhile candidates are turning their back on aviation for more rewarding fields. The regional recruitment issues have been compounded by the 1,500 hour minimum rule which in turn precludes some pilots who want to enter the industry from doing so.

In this situation the question is not so much “Who will fly these aeroplanes?” as “Who even wants to fly these aeroplanes?” There will always be those pilots who will pursue an aviation career at all costs because for some it is as much about passion as profession. Actors, artists and authors can fall under the same umbrella where their vocation is a calling, not a job. Still,with school fees and mortgages to pay, the number that can afford an idealistic outlook may become increasingly few and far between.

Within Australia, the traditional pathway of general aviation is far less active than it once was. Airline scholarship schemes will go some way towards satisfying the balance, but once again they call for the individuals to make a significant financial sacrifice without necessarily high rewards at the other end. University students may have HECS fees or the equivalent, but the possibility of a more immediately financially rewarding career offers to pay that debt.

If a true pilot shortage should develop, then perhaps the airlines will need to entice a new generation of applicants. Perhaps this will be through a review of their cadet scheme arrangements and costs, or the salaries available to the pilots upon graduation and beyond. Plunging ticket prices have resulted in costs being shaved in a good many areas for airlines to remain seemingly competitive, but in the breakdown, an increase in crew costs would only account for a few dollars in each of those fares.

Furthermore, we have already seen foreign carriers offer commuting contracts that allow pilots to be domiciled in one nation and fly out of another. This may well become more prevalent as employers find flexible solutions for their workforce. Some airlines may base crews at the distant ends of their network rather than a central home base, sourcing crews from that country. Also, contract flying may increasingly become a more viable option for some as opposed to a single-airline career.

Whatever the solution may be, there is undoubtedly flexibility to be revealed through creative options not yet touched. What are in shortage are careers in aviation as we once knew them – flying school or military training, the cutting-the-teeth apprenticeship followed by the long stable airline career. It is not solely aviation that has been affected – a vast range of careers have been ‘restructured’ across the global economy. It is unfortunate, but true.

Perhaps a pilot shortage could help by tipping the supply and demand scales back into the favour of aircrews. Their skills would be highly valued and their bargaining position strengthened. It’s a thought, but you’d probably be unwise to hold your breath. To date, every perceived pilot shortage has always found enough pilots willing to strap into an airframe and fly fare paying passengers to their destination. They may have done it with an increasing element of dissatisfaction, but they have done it nevertheless. Only time will tell, but so far we’re still waiting for that pilot shortage to arrive. For many it seems that the careers are the element in short supply.