External forces

That is not to say that aviation has become more dangerous, in fact statistically the opposite is true. Decade after decade, the number of hull losses has decreased and as the passenger air miles have spiralled upwards, the safety with which they travel has been enhanced. Once upon the time the dangers lay in threats such as less than robust navigation systems and inadequate tools to deal with lurking, lethal weather. With passing time and terrible tragedies, technology sought to counter the dangers of air travel at every turn and did so at an incredible rate.

Occasional navigation beacons were replaced by structured airways and a wealth of ground-based aids used increasingly in conjunction with assets such as radar and ultimately satellite systems. Aircraft were no longer guided to the nearest township to seek out an airport, now they were eased down to the runway in zero visibility under the steady hand of the autopilot.

On the flightdeck, systems redundancies and automation grew in prevalence while on the wings piston powerplants evolved into turbines. Reliability became a standard rather than a hope and all the time speed and efficiency improved in unison.

And when the advent of this technology seemed to outpace the human in command, a new branch of air safety evolved. It considered not only how the man interfaced with the machine, it examined how humans interacted in a crew environment. Human factors sought to better understand these complex relationships and better prepare pilots for the potential shortfalls.

Accident investigation became less about apportioning blame and more External forces The evolving threats to air safety

This is not to say aviation has become more dangerous.

about identifying the root cause. In the process it became evident that rather than a root cause, it was frequently a combination of contributing factors. Also, the blame-game generally buried the problem without any real safeguards against another event. Seeking out systemic problems heightened awareness across the industry and allowed future policy and regulations to change, offering genuine improvements to safety. But how can one regulate and counter some of the recent adverse developments in aviation? Risk is associated with every human endeavour from the time our feet hit the floor in the morning. We learn to accept, or ignore, a certain level of risk simply in order to function. Otherwise we would find difficulty in crossing the road and actually driving on the roads over public holidays would seem to be a statistical death wish. Aviation has absorbed risk assessment into its culture and constantly seeks to identify and address threats before they can manifest as a tragedy.

It would seem that it has done this quite well over the past century in dealing with the operational environment, systems, training, hardware and the human factor. Still, the nature of emerging threats has now changed in origin. With the possible exception of rogue pilot behaviour, the majority seem to be external to the industry. Random teenagers in parks with ten dollar lasers and drones and passengers behaving very badly are not necessarily educated in the subtleties of human factors.

Just as the industry has previously had to deal with the growth of technology and the changing human element of the flightdeck, it is possibly time for aviation to pivot in its approach once again. The techniques of the past may identify the source problems in a similar fashion, but the remedies are undoubtedly a little more complex. While renegade passengers or irresponsible laser use is governed and punishable by law, they are not subjected to future education. Unfortunately, at this stage the industry’s hand is almost forced into the antiquated days of the blame game rather than analysis and rectification. Punitive action is a deterrent at best and then only if potential offenders are aware of the consequences.

The challenge lies in making these external threats aware of the potential risks they bring to others. For those of us already operating within aviation, or even just possessing a dose of common sense, it would seem obvious. However, history has shown that assuming common sense and logic exist is not a strong strategy.

9/11 changed the aviation world and the security barricades went up across the world’s airports. One can debate the effectiveness of some of these measures in an operational sense, but there is no doubt that it has raised awareness in the consciousness of the population. The industry is now confronted by a new set of circumstances beyond its current scope, but air safety is at stake so solutions must be found. Given aviation’s track record at evolving and adapting, one is hopeful that answers can be found to even the most daunting of these questions. Perhaps in time the Wright Brothers can be truly proud of all that their frail flyer has become. Time will tell.