Bombardier Aerospace has released its annual business and commercial aircraft market forecasts on the eve of the 2014 Farnborough Airshow in the UK.
The company says that, while the world economy has grown as a slower rate than previously predicted, there are signs of improvement in the business and commercial aircraft market sectors.
Business – Bombardier anticipates a market for 22,000 new business jet deliveries in the market segments in which it competes in the next two decades, valued at US$617 billion.
It says it is “confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry”, and predicts the 9,200 deliveries in the first decade to 2023 will increase to 12,800 aircraft in the following decade.
The company says in the near-term “Business aircraft orders are expected to remain challenging”, but has projected an improvement in the market from 2015. It says North America will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries, followed by Europe and the emerging market in China.
Commercial – On the commercial side, Bombardier’s forecast covers the 20 to 149-seat sectors in which it competes.
It says the “commercial aviation market is profitable and growing,”, and that in the two decades to 2033, some 13,100 aircraft up to 149-seats valued at US$658 billion will be required.
When broken down, the company says the 20 to 59-seats market will require 400 new aircraft; the 60 to 99-seat market 5,600 aircraft deliveries; and the strengthening 100 to 149-seats market will need 7,100 new aircraft.
It sees the 60 to 99-seat sector as “one of the most dynamic in commercial aviation” which will more than double in size with new aircraft deliveries evenly split between large turboprops such as the Q400 and ATR 72, and large regional jets like the CRJ series.
The 100 to 149-seat aircraft segment will see new players such as Bombardier’s own CSeries, the Embraer E2, and new entrants from Mitsubishi and Sukhoi.
North America is expected to take the most aircraft in this segment, followed by China, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America.
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