Searching For Answers

MH370 was piloted by an experienced crew of Capt Zaharie Ahmad Shah (age 53, 18,365 hours total) and First Officer Fariq Ab Hamid (age 27, 2,763 hours total).

The aircraft carried 154 Chinese citizens, 38 Malaysians, seven Indonesians, six Australians, five Indians, four French, three US citizens, two New Zealanders, two Ukrainians, two Canadians, two Iranians (assumed asylum seekers travelling on stolen Italian and Austrian passports), one Russian, and one Dutch national. On March 11 MAS reported that 9M-MRO had accumulated 53,465 flight hours in 7,525 flight cycles since its delivery in 2002.

The aircraft had last undergone maintenance on February 23.

According to the MH370 investigation preliminary report issued by Malaysian authorities on May 1 the flight took off at 00:42L and was cleared to FL180 and issued a direct track by LUMPUR APPROACH at Kuala Lumpur Air Traffic Control Centre (KLATCC) to waypoint IGARI.

MH370 was transferred to LUMPUR RADAR at KLATCC at 00:42:52L. It was then cleared to climb to FL 250 at 00:46:51L and subsequently to FL 350 at 00:50:06L. MH370 reported maintaining FL 350 at 01:01:16L and reported maintaining FL 350 again at 01:07:55L.

At 01:19:24L LUMPUR RADAR at KLATCC instructed MH370 to contact Ho Chi Minh ATC (HCMATCC) on radio frequency 120. 9 MHz.

MH370 acknowledged with “good night Malaysian Three Seven Zero. ”.

The report says that at 01:21:04L, MH370 was observed on the radar screen at KLATCC as it passed over waypoint IGARI. At 01:21:13L the radar label for MH370 disappeared from the radar screen at LUMPUR RADAR KLATCC.

Immediately afterwards the plane’s transponder was turned off at 01. 22L and it turned southwest and climbed to 39,000ft. The plane’s ACARS was also turned off at 01. 07L.

What followed has been described by many as “confusion, misleading information and then long periods of nothing”. The Malaysian response was one of disbelief and perhaps they can be forgiven, for in this day and age aircraft shouldn’t just disappear. But this one did.

The release of the meagre fivepage report tells a tale of air trafficcontrollers taking more than four hours to activate rescuers to look for MH370. And in that critical four hours the 777 was tracked by the Malaysian military who did nothing because they didn’t think the aircraft was hostile, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has explained.

But the question remains – did they actually track it at all in real time or did they simple refer to overnight recordings the next morning.

However, if Malaysian ATC had phoned the military immediately the Malaysian air force could have scrambled aircraft to intercept and follow MH370.

At 01:38L, Ho Chi Minh contacted Kuala Lumpur to advise Malaysian ATC that it had not heard from MH370. When Malaysia Airlines was contacted inexplicably at 0203L it said that the plane was in Cambodian airspace but that county’s ATC had not seen or heard from MH370.

And at 02. 35L the airline said MH370 was “in normal condition based on signal download,” which placed it off the coast of Vietnam.

An hour later the airline qualified its advice saying: “The flight tracker information was based on flight projection and not reliable for aircraft positioning. ” That was 03:30L and it was clear by then that something was very wrong. But, incredibly, two more hours would pass before air traffic controllers notified search and rescue or the military.

At 05:20L, finally a Malaysia Airlines official announced that “MH370 never left Malaysian airspace” and 10 minutes later ATC alerted the rescue coordination centre.

Incredibly, despite the fact that the Malaysian military had tracked an aircraft turning southwest and then west over Malaysia at the right time, the initial search was in the South China Sea. It would be days later

At 01:21:13L the radar label for MH370 disappeared from the radar screen.

before it became known that the military had tracked the flight.

On March 8 search missions were launched along the projected flight track of MH370 from the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea to Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and up to China.

But confusion and contradiction reigned almost immediately as numerous military and government officials from a variety of countries made incorrect statements or were misunderstood.

At noon on the first day Vietnamese searchers reported an ELT signal about 20nm south of the coast of Ca Mau but this was quickly discounted. Later that afternoon an admiral in the Vietnamese navy apparently indicated a crash site had been located but he was misquoted as he was referring to the last radar contact.

There were numerous sightings of debris – many very credible – including an oil slick, but all instead turned out to be sad reflections on the health of the world’s oceans.

On March 11 the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) advised that its primary radar had detected an aircraft turning west over the Gulf of Thailand and flown over Kota Bharu on Malaysia’s east coast and then Kedah on the west coast before heading out to sea. The military advised it was last detected at 02:40L near Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca, about 285nm west-south-west of the last known secondary radar position. The military also said that local police at Kota Bharu reported a low flying aircraft at about 3,000ft at the correct time.

However, two days later the Malaysian military denied this. At the same time as this denial greater search assets were deployed to the Straits of Malacca on March 10 than were inthe South China Sea. The result of this confusion was that it was virtually impossible to work out what was actually going on.

Then late in the evening of March 12 the RMAF commander confirmed in a televised news conference that an unidentified radar target was last seen at FL295 about 200nm northwest of Penang at 02:15L.

Satellite fingerprint

Seven days after the disappearance of MH370 Malaysian authorities were denying reports out of the US that the aircraft’s ACARS systemwas active for many hours after the flight disappeared. US military sources said that based on the ACARS system information they believed they had an “indication” that MH370 went down in the north Indian Ocean and had dispatched a ship to investigate.

White House press secretary Jay Carney acknowledged that there were yet-to-be conclusive claims about the aircraft being much further west off course than initially believed. “There are a number of possible scenarios that are being investigated as to what happened to the flight,” Carney said at the time.

The “indication” turned out to be the ACARS satellite communication system which automatically transmitted seven messages that confirmed that the system was still logged onto the network. The last message was received by the satellite ground station at 08:19L. On March 14 Inmarsat released a statement on its website which read: “Routine, automated signals were registered on the Inmarsat network from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 during its flight from Kuala Lumpur. This information was provided to our partner SITA, which in turn has shared it with Malaysia Airlines. For further information, please contact Malaysia Airlines. ” At the same time Malaysia’s acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein gave more details about the military radar returns saying that the target was first picked up at waypoint IGARI at FL350 at 01:21L which coincided with the secondary return before it was switched off.

The object then moved southwest towards waypoint VAMPI, then waypoint GIVAL and finally turning northwest towards waypoint IGREX.

The target was lost at FL295 afterGIVAL at 02:15L according to Aviation Herald reports.

On March 15 Prime Minister Najib held a press conference to confirm most of what had been leaked out but he brought a sense of clarity to what was an extraordinary week.

Importantly he said that “the plane could have flown on for seven hours, the last trace of the aircraft was identified at 08:19L”. At the time he added that “due to the type of satellite data we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plane when it last made contact with the satellite. ” The Malaysian Prime Minister said that two corridors were identified as the likely course of the 777. “The northern corridor stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand or the southern corridor stretching approximately from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean. ”Later he issued a statement about why there had been a veil of secrecy over the satellite data.

“This is truly an unprecedented situation, for Malaysia Airlines and for the entire aviation industry.

There has never been a case in which information gleaned from satellite signals alone could potentially be used to identify the location of a missing commercial airliner. Given the nature of the situation and its extreme sensitivity, it was critical that the raw satellite signals were verified and analysed by the relevant authorities so that their significance could be properly understood. This naturally took some time, during which we were unable to publicly confirm their existence. ” It was quickly established that the southern Indian Ocean was the most likely resting place of MH370 and Perth became the centre of the search.

Initially based on the first Inmarsat data the Australian Maritime Safety Authority revealed it had identified a 600,000km2 zone, 3,200km off Western Australia to search.

AMSA said the task was daunting and admitted at the time that the modelling used to set the search zone was based on many assumptions. However, AMSA spokesman John Young said those assumptions were based on specific information using satellite data provided by the US National Transport Safety Board. The area had also been selected using the higher and lower speeds for the Boeing 777, ocean drift and current patterns.

On March 24 it was announced that further analysis of the Inmarsat satellite data, using the changes in the satellites communication signal frequency, confirmed that MH370 flew the southern corridor and ended its flight in the southern part of the Indian Ocean. Thatevening Prime Minister Najib confirmed that MH370 was lost in the southern Indian Ocean with no survivors.

In a sombre and emotion-charged announcement, Najib said that Inmarsat, working with the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch, had used new analysis techniques and determined “beyond doubt” that MH370 had been lost and no one had survived. “Therefore, it is with deep sadness and regret that, according to new data, MH370 ended its flight in the southern Indian Ocean,” he said.

Most relatives of passengers and crew were told the “heartbreaking” news at special briefings in Beijing and KL, but others were told by text message, which infuriated many.

Adding to the high drama two debris fields were spotted by Australian and Chinese search aircraft between 2,100km and 2,500km southwest of Perth in a zone identified by AMSA. The debris was expected to be confirmed as coming from MH370 but as happened before and many times since, it was not from MH370 but just ocean garbage.

These sightings were in the general area of a Chinese satellite image which apparently identified numbers of objects in the ocean.

However, this and subsequent French and Thai satellite imagery turned to be false leads. The imagery was “radar echoes taken by a satellite” that were termed “floating debris”. Many of the objects were detailed with sizes by the Malaysians giving the “find” even more credibility. The images “showed” up to 122 objects and later 300 objects.

Adding to the almost bizarre circus atmosphere Malaysia’s acting Transport Minister was feeding the stream of information about MH370 on Twitter with literally dozens of tweets every day.

New analysis techniques determined “beyond doubt” that MH370 had been lost.

On March 30 Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced that Air Chief Marshal (ret’d) Angus Houston would lead a new Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC) to be based in Perth to coordinate the Australian Government’s support for the search into MH370.

Abbott said that the JACC would “ensure that the search being coordinated by AMSA and the ATSB (Australian Transport Safety Bureau) is reinforced by strong liaison with all the relevant stakeholders, including the families of the passengers. ” He added that the JACC would provide a single contact point for families to gain up-to-date information and travel assistance including visa services, accommodation advice, interpreter services and counselling.

We’re very confident the signals we’re detecting are from the black box from MH370. PM TONY ABBOTT

On April 3 Australia was invited to join the MH370 crash investigation team with Prime Minister Najib confirming that the ATSB would be a fully accredited member.

The announcement came at a joint news conference with Prime Minister Abbott, who declared the search “the most difficult ever undertaken”. “This is an extraordinarily difficult time for Malaysia and Prime Minister Razak,” Abbott said. “We have the best brains in the world working on the search and we have a high degree of confidence. ” He added that small pieces “of the jigsaw were coming together”.

“We are throwing everything at it and we have the technical capacity to get the best possible outcome,”Abbott said. “The disappearance of MH370 has tested our collective resolve. I believe the courage of the [search] crews is more than equal to the task. ”

Pings

After the seventh recalculation of the most likely flightpath AMSA dispatched the Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield equipped with a Towed Pinger Locator and a Bluefin Robotics Bluefin 21 autonomous underwater vehicle to the area of highest probability in a 700km by 80km wide search area.

This area was well to the north of the original search zone and about 1,000km west of Exmouth off the Western Australian coast. The Ocean Shield arrived on station on Friday April 4. At the same time the Chinese vessel Haixun 01 located what was called a fleeting ping sound event and a second ping sound the following day. Both were later discounted.

But on Sunday April 6 Ocean Shield appeared to find the black box beacons at 37. 5kHz over a period of 140 minutes before losing them. When the Ocean Shield turned around for another look the towed pinger locator picked them again, this time for 13 minutes. Ocean Shield subsequently picked up two more strong pings and two fading ones for a total of four confirmed ping locations. ACM Houston, while delighted, sounded a warning note: “This is a most promising lead. It’s probably the best information we’ve had and I’m much more optimistic than I was a week ago . . . but we haven’t found the aircraft yet – I must stress this, ” he said. “Further confirmation is still needed. No wreckage has been found. ” The black box signals were located on the northern slopes of an area called the Wallaby Plateau with depths beyond the design limit of the Bluefin 21 of 4,500m. The location of the black box pings was an intense adrenalin rush for everyone connected with the search including Prime Minister Abbott who was in China with a major trade delegation.

On Friday April 11 it was announced by sources close to the PM that he would make a major announcement related to MH370 within an hour in China.

However, according to senior sources in the investigation there was a frantic 30 minutes of negotiations to tell the PM not to claim that MH370 “had been found. ” Instead Abbott announced to the world that he was increasingly confident that signals received by Ocean Shield were from the 777’s black boxes.

“We’re very confident the signals we’re detecting are from the black box from MH370,” Abbott said.

“We’re hoping to get as much information as we can before the signal finally expires. ” In fact the 30 day certification limit on the black box signals had expired and while it was thought they might last up to 40 days no more signals were detected.

While Abbott was talked out of international politicking over MH370 one of the world’s most experienced wreck hunters said that the crash site of MH370 had been found.

David Mearns, the director of UK‑based Bluewater Recoveries told the ABC’s 7. 30 program that “essentially they have found the wreckage site. ” “While the government hasn’t announced that yet, if somebody asked me: ‘Technically do they have enough information to say that?’ My answer is unequivocally ‘Yes’. ” Mearns, who found the wreck of HMAS Sydney in the Indian Ocean in 2008 and also helped find Air France flight 447, said the strength of the pings from the black boxesindicated the search team had found its target.

“You just don’t hear these signals randomly in the ocean. These are not fleeting sounds – they have got four very, very good detections, with the right spectrum of noise coming from them. It can’t be from anything else,” Mearns told the ABC.

Interestingly, as it turned out Mearns warned that the Bluefin 21, which would start scanning the ocean floor the next day, could take months to locate the wreckage.

That warning was echoed by ACM Houston: “In deep ocean waters nothing happens fast. ” But happening fast in the air was the search for floating debris with military aircraft from a host of nations along with chartered corporate jets scouring the Indian Ocean.

Almost every day up to 15 aircraft set off from Perth Airport, RAAF Base Pearce and later Learmonth to look for debris almost 700km further west than where the black box pings had been detected. Just before the search was moved to the final search zone, Tropical Cyclone Gillian with winds over 200km/h had gone through the area and then turned west.

At the same time another false lead – oil on the water near Ocean Shield – created another media frenzy which came to nothing.

Bluefin 21 was launched on April 14 with ACM Houston saying “we haven’t had a single detection in six days. It’s time to go underwater. ” Each deployment of the Bluefin 21 would take 24 hours to complete, including the downloading of data which takes four hours and two hours each way to the sea bed. The search area was a 10km radius around the location of the second ping.

On April 23 another media frenzy erupted surrounding the finding of aircraft wreckage on a beach east of Augusta on WA’s south coast. In

The air search efforts lasted 42 days and involved over 50 search and support aircraft.

what appeared at first to be a major development in the seven-week search for the 777, the ATSB said it was examining photographs of the debris.

ATSB chief commissioner Martin Dolan told the author at the time “it’s sufficiently interesting for us to take a look at the photographs” but he strongly cautioned. “The closer we look, the less excited we are. ” By the next morning the story was over with the material thought likely to be from a light aircraft.

By Friday April 25 tense negotiations were under way between the multinational search teams to end the air search for debris. Several countries, including Australia, were lobbying Malaysia to abandon the search for floating debris as consensus grew that the chance of finding anything on the surface was extremely remote.

Incredibly there was only one successful link between an aerial sighting of debris – by a New Zealand Orion – and a ship recovering the item. PM Abbott flagged the rethink on Wednesday April 23 when he said “we may well rethink the search but we will not rest until we have done everything we can to solve this mystery. ” He added: “We are not going to abandon the families of the 239 people who were on that plane by lightly surrendering while there is reasonable hope of finding something. ” On April 29 Vice Chief of the Defence Force Air Marshal Mark Binskin wound up the air search at RAAF Base Pearce by officially thanking the multinational team members for their efforts.

The air search efforts lasted 42 days and involved over 50 search and support aircraft. More than 4. 5 million km2 of ocean was scoured and 334 search flights conductedat an average of eight a day. Total time in the air was 3,000 hours.

Supporting Australia were New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the US.

While the air and surface search came to a halt the government announced that the undersea search would be widened and commercial contractors would be involved at a cost of $60 million. The type of vehicle to be used in the expanded search was slated to be the Orion which is a towed side scan sonar capable of depths of 6,000m.

It’s other big advantage over an autonomous vehicle is that it streams data in real time.

In the second week of May ministers from the Australian, Malaysian and Chinese governments met in Canberra to plan the next stage of the search and to discuss who would pay for the widening search. It was also decided that if any wreckage was found, families of the passengers and crew would be brought to Perth and the Western Australian government would assume responsiblity for organising religious and traditional rituals and services for the victims.

It was also revealed that investigators including criminal agencies were looking at suicide, terrorism or hijacking as the likely causes. On the former, Paris prosecutors launched a judicial investigation for involuntary homicide on Wednesday May 7.

Four French nationals were among the passengers, including three students from the French school in Beijing, and the mother of two of the pupils.

Captain Zaharie has been the focus of intense scrutiny over his elaborate home flight simulator setup which features six monitors with and overhead panel and center pedestal. The captain’s hard drivewas removed and taken to the FBI for examination shortly after the disappearance of MH370 as some files had apparently been wiped. But nothing suspicious was found.

On May 9 a team of international experts met in Canberra to start a week-long reassessment of all the data to ensure nothing had been missed. But as Australian Aviation closed for press the international teams looking for MH370 are still confident it will be found in the current search area. The upbeat assessment from Joint Agency Coordination Centre head ACM Angus Houston came as investigators assess all the scientific data.

According to ACM Houston: “there may need to be a fine adjustment to the search area that’s been defined”. Speaking on ABC radio, he said organising the next phase using towed sonar vehicles that can scan down to 6,000m could take four to six weeks.

And ACM Houston warned it would be very challenging. “You could get lucky, you could find it right at the beginning of the search,” he said, but added it was more likely to take a “long time”. He added that the audit of the data was necessary and “sensible” to ensure there has been “no oversights, no flaws in the logic”. However, he told ABC radio he was convinced the search team was “looking in the right area. ”