Pilot shortage?

Despite seemingly watertight statistics, a true dearth of pilots in Australia has never really eventuated.

Once again the murmurs have begun and once again they are on the back of Boeing’s projections of future aircraft deliveries and the crews needed to fly them. By 2032 the aircraft manufacturing giant predicts more than 35,000 new jets will be required with around 21,000 of that number being for fleet growth rather than renewal. Historically, Boeing’s numbers on aircraft deliveries have proved to be accurate, but always pilot numbers have managed to keep pace.

Sometimes this has been a function of decreased demand rather than increased pilot numbers. When an apparent perfect storm of Australian pilot numbers loomed early in the new millennium it was circumvented by SARS, the Ansett collapse and the tragedy of 9/11. These events slowed traffic growth and allowed airlines breathing space and a chance to employ alternate strategies.

More recently the forecast growth of traffic in Asia has stirred the debate once more. Beyond the various airline cadet schemes, it has been a relatively quiet period in civil pilot training.

Furthermore, for many candidates, the lustre has gone from an aviation career with the erosion of working conditions no longer keeping par with the sacrifices required. For the first time in memory a good many airline pilots are actively deterring their offspring from entering aviation.

In the United States the situation is further exacerbated by the new regulations calling for a minimum of 1,500 hours experience for airline flightcrew recruits and higher pilot retention rates by the military.

Like the US, a shortage is manifesting at regional airlines in the first instance. As the reach of this industry sector grows with expanding networks, the demand is worsened by the ever-present poaching by major carriers. Even when the breach is plugged by increased cadet pilot training, the issue arises again downstream when there is a lack of qualified first officers ready to upgrade to the captain’s seat.

Should a true pilot shortage occur in Australia, it is not a situation that can be quickly rectified. Recruitment and training require a significant lead time to bring candidates up to the required standard for commercial operations.

Yet it seems to be more and more difficult for operational flight departments to convince the accountants to spend the required funds on a situation that might be coming down the line. Additionally, if they get the numbers wrong they could even have an oversupply of pilots!

A true pilot shortage is not a situation that can be quickly rectified.

Either way, the void cannot be filled by merely pumping numbers through a flight training sausage machine. The recruitment process has been developed over many years on the basis that not everybody is cut out to be a pilot. There is a need for a recruit to possess a balance of manipulative skills, situational awareness, interpersonal skills and an ability to interface with ever-changing technology.

It is not a career where two out of three ain’t bad – a balanced mix of all of the ingredients is necessary. Nor is it wise to believe the growth of technology can allow for a decrease in emphasis on fundamental piloting skills and attitudes. No matter how much some may wish it to be the case, an aircraft cannot still be safely flown with a set and forget approach to automation.

Behind the wizardry and magenta lines, pilots still need to monitor the boundaries of their technology. When those boundaries are reached or the technology is no longer there to assist them, pilots need to have the initiative to intervene and the skills to fly the aeroplane. This has been highlighted by some very high profile accidents in recent times. You don’t need special people in the cockpit, but you do need the right people.

Where will we find them if the pilot shortage actually ever arrives? They are out there, but they need to be convinced that aviation is a career worth pursuing. There will always be the diehard passionate aviators, but they won’t be enough to fill the void.

Perhaps there will be a change in conditions to lure new recruits. Rather than paying big dollars for their own endorsements, there may be a growth in signing ‘bonuses’. These measures are already surfacing with some overseas airlines.

As always, regional airlines will be the first to feel the pinch and that pain will float down the food chain to the ranks of general aviation. However, Australia’s major airlines are no longer immune either. They are an attractive small fish in a large global pond and the opportunities that exist overseas are growing daily. From the Middle East to China, with bases from Europe to every place imaginable, Australian pilots are now able to sell their wares far and wide.

If demand for pilots grows in the region, there are no longer any guarantees local pilots will fill the local needs and a wealth of human resources may well drift offshore. The industry could be faced with a lack of influx at the bottom end and a mass exodus up at the top, stretching a strained industry even further.

However, this is all dependent upon the forecasts becoming reality and the global situation remaining steady. All manner of events can disrupt the world’s status quo and when they do, aviation is one of the first industries to feel the effect. Slowing passenger numbers and increasing oil prices are immediate symptoms of any global illness and both can devastate the industry.

For the moment, Australian aviation continues to tick over and the pilot shortage remains just a spectre. Should the need for pilots come to pass, it is highly likely that our industry may be caught short in the first instance.

If that occurs then my sincere hope is that recovery is through a concerted effort in growing our stocks of trained pilots and not facilitated by lowering the bar.

Only time will tell.